Over 50% of the players drafted since 2003 are gone.

by Kirkendall on Oct 9, 2008 7:03 PM EDT in NFL Draft Comment 6 comments

On Thursday, the Bengals waived Ethan Kilmer from injury reserve. This goes back to the Marvin Lewis era draft. Of the 53 men selected through six NFL drafts:

11 are starters.
27 are no longer with the team.
3 on Injured Reserve.

In bold, are players that have started this season.

Year	No.	Round	Name	Position	Notes
2008	1	1	Keith Rivers	LB	Starting outside linebacker.
	2	2	Jerome Simpson	WR	Backup wide receiver. No snaps taken.
	3	3	Pat Sims	DT	Backup defensive tackle. No snaps taken.
	4	3	Andre Caldwell	WR	Backup wide receiver. No snaps taken.
	5	4	Anthony Collins	T	Backup tackle. No snaps taken.
	6	5	Jason Shirley	DT	Backup defensive tackle. Projected as "reshirt freshmen" with legal issues.
	7	6	Corey Lynch	DB	Backup safety.
	8	6	Matt Sherry	TE	On IR.
	9	7	Angelo Craig	LB	Gone.
	10	7	Mario Urrutia	WR	Practice squad.
2007	1	1	Leon Hall	DB	Starting cornerback.
	2	2	Kenny Irons	RB	Gone.
	3	4	Marvin White	DB	Starting safety.
	4	5	Jeff Rowe	QB	Gone.
	5	6	Matt Toeaina	DT	Gone.
	6	7	Dan Santucci	G	On IR.
	7	7	Nedu Ndukwe	DB	Starting safety.
2006s	1	3	Ahmad Brooks	LB	Gone.
2006	1	1	Johnathan Joseph	DB	Starting cornerback.
	2	2	Andrew Whitworth	T	Starting guard.
	3	3	Frostee Rucker	DE	Backup defensive end.
	4	4	Domata Peko	DT	Starting defensive tackle.
	5	5	A. J. Nicholson	LB	Gone.
	6	6	Reggie McNeal	QB	Gone.
	7	7	Ethan Kilmer	WR	Gone.
	8	7	Bennie Brazell	WR	Gone.
2005	1	1	David Pollack	DE	Gone.
	2	2	Odell Thurman	LB	Gone.
	3	3	Chris Henry	WR	Backup wide receiver.
	4	4	Eric Ghiaciuc	C	Starting center.
	5	5	Adam Kieft	T	Gone.
	6	6	Tab Perry	WR	Gone.
	7	7	Jonathan Fanene	DE	Backup defensive end.
2004	1	1	Chris Perry	RB	Starting running back.
	2	2	Keiwan Ratliff	DB	Gone.
	3	2	Madieu Williams	DB	Gone.
	4	3	Caleb Miller	LB	Gone.
	5	3	Landon Johnson	LB	Gone.
	6	4	Matthias Askew	DT	Gone.
	7	4	Robert Geathers	DE	Starting defensive end.
	8	4	Stacy Andrews	T	Starting right tackle.
	9	5	Maurice Mann	WR	Gone.
	10	6	Greg Brooks	DB	Gone.
	11	7	Casey Bramlet	QB	Gone.
2003	1	1	Carson Palmer	QB	Teams starting quarterback.
	2	2	Eric Steinbach	G	Gone.
	3	3	Kelley Washington	WR	Gone.
	4	4	Dennis Weathersby	DB	Gone.
	5	4	Jeremi Johnson	RB	Teams starting fullback; now on Injured Reserve.
	6	5	Khalid Abdullah	LB	Gone.
	7	6	Langston Moore	DT	Gone.
	8	7	Scott Kooistra	T	Team's utility backup lineman.
	9	7	Elton Patterson	DE	Gone.

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This is really alerting...

Stats like this indicate that a lack of a scouting department is KILLING the Bengals. Admittedly, the organization was struck by lighting with injuries (Abdullah, Pollack, Irons) and personal issues (Thurmond, et al.). That said, drafts are clearly a weakness for the Bengals. For every Chad Johnson, Cincinnati selects a Sean Brewer or Tom Tumulty. Galling.

"Ryan, Things in here don't react too well to bullets." - Marko Ramius

by TarZander on Oct 9, 2008 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Those numbers aren't actually that bad

especially because the 2003/2004 numbers skew things with how many players are gone. Eric Steinbach and Madieu Williams are good players.

I ran the Ravens drafts through the same time period with the same numbers and got
52 picks
12 Starters
20 no longer with team
6 on IR

And I decided not to include IR players like PJ Daniels and Kyle Boller who will never play for the Ravens again as Gone.

Is 1 more starter and 7 more roster fillers really that important.

Don’t get me wrong, I think Mike Brown should sell the team if he doesn’t want to invest in a quality program. I think it’s a travesty that owners can be so negligent with their football teams. I wish I had a football team to waste like that. I’d be playing all fricking day long. But it’s not the number of players who last on a roster that’s been killing the Bengals draft, it’s been a lack of ability to acquire blue-chip players. You’ve missed on two first rounders, and at least 3 second rounders, and that can kill a team.

by math_geek on Oct 10, 2008 1:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was hoping someone else would take the time to do that.

Thanks man.

Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.

by Kirkendall on Oct 10, 2008 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Problem - I like this site a lot, you do a good job

I’ll go ahead and name the Ravens starters drafted in each year, so that we have something to compare to the Steelers down below and the Bengals up above (I didn’t want to do the whole chart for you because that would be oppresive). It would be great if we could find a Browns fan to do the same thing.

2008 (Joe Flacco)
2007 (Ben Grubbs, Marshall Yanda, Jared Gaither (Supp), Le’Ron McClain)
2006 (Haloti Ngata, Dawan Landry)
2005 (Mark Clayton, Adam Terry, Jason Brown)
2004 (No-one) – This draft was a disaster
2003 (Terrell Suggs, Jarret Johnston)
2002 (Ed Reed)
2001 (Todd Heap)
2000 (none)
1999 (Chris McCallister)
1998 (none)
1997 (none)
1996 (Ray Lewis)

Same as the Steelers, 16 of our 22 starters were drafted by the Ravens. In addition, one starter, Bart Scott, was an undrafted FA that anyone could have picked up (Like Willie Parker). Kelly Gregg is currently on IR, but he was another guy that floated through a lot of training camps (and was actually on the practice squad of the Bengals in 1999), that eventually made the team in Baltimore.

The shocking part to me is realizing how few of our starters were established with another team and then picked up as Free Agents or trades (Derrick Mason, Samari Rolle, Trevor Pryce, Willis McGahee) This is still a draft driven league, and most teams are going to start the guys they drafted.
It comes down to what goffchile said – When you start counting subpar starters as successes, then you don’t see the real difference in draft performance.

by math_geek on Oct 10, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

going back five years is a long way in the NFL...

…since the average career of NFL player is 3 years. I did a very quick comparison to the Steelers—there numbers are roughly as follows—

2008 6 players on the team out of 7 drafted (no starters as of yet)
2007 6/8 (Lamarr Woodley)
2006 4/9 (Santonio Holmes, Willie Colon)
2005 4/8 (Heath Miller, Chris Kemeotu)
2004 2/8 (Ben Roethlistberger, Max Starks)
2003 2/5 (Ike Taylor, Troy Polamalu)

For a total of 24/45 (53% ) and 9 starters (20% of those drafted are starting). A little bit better than the Bengals, but not as much as one might think. But I dug a little deeper—

Steeler drafted starters pre-2003 (this is revealing)—

2002 Brett Keisel, Larry Foote
2001 Casey Hampton
2000 Marvel Smith
1999 Aaron Smith
1998 Deshea Townsend, Hines Ward

The Steelers have 7 players who are starting that were drafted before 2003. Pretty good player retention of guys that are able to take NFL blows for over years and still be able to start. So out of a 22 man roster, 16 of the Steelers starters were drafted by the Steelers. Keep in mind that Willie Parker was picked up as an undrafted FA as well—drafted by the Steelers? No, but the Bengals and anyone else could have got him any time.

Maybe the difference isn’t that huge statistically, but when we are counting Chris Perry and Eric Ghiaciac as “draft successes” —you start to see the difference.

by goffchile on Oct 10, 2008 8:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs