Rivers progress likely depends on other signings

by Josh Kirkendall on Jul 31, 2008 10:21 AM EDT

UPDATE: Sedrick Ellis signed a deal worth up to $49 million with base salaries in the $32-33 million range.

UPDATE: As R.F. Mehl points out, Sedrick Ellis and the New Orleans Saints have reached a deal that runs five years and pays $19.5 million in guarantee money. The total money hasn't been disclosed yet, but you figure it's going to be less than $50 million. Here's the problem with the Keith Rivers perspective. Will Derrick Harvey be the slot that takes a sudden drop? Or will he sign for between $40-50 million and Rivers is stuck negotiating around that number rather than the $20 million figure you'd figure he gets from the $19 million deal that Mayo received?

If the Bengals and Keith Rivers' representatives are waiting for the seventh and eighth picks to find the ninth-slot value, then it might be awhile. After missing his tenth practice, Saints rookie defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis doesn't appear close.

Although Ellis would appear to be next in line after sixth pick Vernon Gholston signed with the New York Jets on Saturday, it's starting to appear as though his representatives might be waiting for Harvey's deal to get done to possibly improve their negotiating position.

A listing of first-round signings:

Pick - Player	Team	Length - Contract	Guarantees
1 - Jake Long	Miami	Five - $57.5 million	$30 million
2 - Chris Long	St. Louis	Six - $56.5 million	$29 million
3 - Matt Ryan	Atlanta	Six - $72 million	$34 million
4 - Darren McFadden	Oakland	Six - $60 million	$26 million
5- Glenn Dorsey	Chiefs	Five - $51 million	$23 million
6 - Vernon Gholston	Jets	Five - $50 million	$21 million
7 - Sedrick Ellis	Saints	Five - $49 million	$19.5 million
8 - Derrick Harvey	Jaguars
9 - Keith Rivers	Bengals
10 - Jerod Mayo	Patriots	Five - $18.9 million	$13.8 million
11 - Leodis McKelvin	Bills	Five - $19.4 million	$12.6 million
12 - Ryan Clady	Broncos	Five - $17.5 million	$11.5 million
13 - Jonathan Stewart	Panthers	Five - $20 million	$10.795 million
14 - Chris Williams	Bears	Five - $16 million	$10 million

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Ellis-19.5

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/8393536/Ellis-to-get-at-least-$19.5M-from-Saints
reports that Ellis has signed with $19.5M guaranteed. Hopefully this will expedite Rivers deal, but I’m not optimistic

There appears to be a clear trend in the guaranteed money among the top 14 picks, which would give Rivers ~$16.5M guaranteed.
However, the total value of the top 6 picks’ salaries is split into 2 groups, the top five who get ~10-12M/year, and picks 10-14 who get only ~4M.
Most of the draft experts grouped Ellis as being the last elite player drafted, which makes it reasonable for the teams to give the top 7 players big deals. Rivers and Harvey are the start of the second tier, but I think that they are going to fight for first tier money.

by R.F. Mehl on Jul 29, 2008 11:26 PM EDT reply actions

Is Katie Blackburn still negotiating the contracts around there?

I don’t see why it matters what kind of guaranteed money they’re giving to a guy who plays a different position for another team just because he got drafted one spot sooner.

GET INTO CAMP, KEITH! START EARNING THE JACK INSTEAD OF FIGHTING OVER IT!

by TheWalrus1971 on Jul 30, 2008 3:26 AM EDT reply actions

On the other hand...

I can’t blame Keith. This is his first chance, and could be his last, at a big contract. But I agree with you too, the money may not mean much if you miss so much time.

Blogger at CincyJungle.com

by Josh Kirkendall on Jul 30, 2008 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions