Early AFC Playoff Picture (and the Bengals chances)
by ritalin on Oct 20, 2009 10:35 AM EDT
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Print6 (or 5) games in, the AFC is starting to show that some teams are who we thought they were (Colts, Patriots), and some aren't (Broncos, Titans). Here are the current standings:
New England Patriots 4-2
New York Jets 3-3
Miami Dolphins 2-3
Buffalo Bills 2-4
Cincinnati Bengals 4-2
Pittsburgh Steelers 4-2
Baltimore Ravens 3-3
Cleveland Browns 1-5
Indianapolis Colts 5-0
Houston Texans 3-3
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-3
Tennessee Titans 0-6
Denver Broncos 6-0
San Diego Chargers 2-3
Oakland Raiders 2-4
Kansas City Chiefs 1-5
As it stands now, there are 5 teams who have played their way out of the playoff conversation (Bills, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs) although they could also play their way back in (not likely). The remaining 11 are the teams the Bengals need to worry about.
New England Patriots: Appear to be on track toward winning east. No real implications as far as Bengals are concerned
New York Jets: Finally looking like they are using a rookie quarterback, but enough talent on defense to keep them in games. Bengals @ Jets in Week 17 could decide the second AFC wild card.
Miami Dolphins: Very explosive team, but without a head-to-head matchup the Bengals just have to play well in the AFC.
Indianapolis Colts: Same deal as Patriots. Appear to be on track to winning the division, and hold no real implications for the Bengals.
Houston Texans: This is the team that worries me the most. They now have a head-to-head tiebreaker on the Bengals, and are really coming together on offense. They should be in the hunt at the end of the season for a wild card berth, and their victory over the Bengals could loom large.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Very inconsistent team, and nothing about their defense scares me. Probably not a serious contender for a playoff spot.
Denver Broncos: Obviously the surprise of the season. It's actually great for the Bengals that they are doing so well, since it looks like they have the division locked up, and the head-to-head tiebreak probably won't matter.
San Diego Chargers: They won't be able to pull out a miracle division championship this year but could still challenge for a wild card spot. The Bengals go to San Diego in Week 15 for a game that could possibly have playoff implications.
Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburgh Steelers: Obviously it would be great if the Bengals won the division. Unfortunately I think the Steelers will probably be the North division champs this year, so the Bengals will have to be looking for a wild card berth. If the Bengals win coming out of the bye at home against Baltimore, it puts them in very good position within the division.
As far as the Bengals remaining schedule goes, there are 4 games the Bengals "should" win (though we know what happens when we are supposed to win a game). These games come in Weeks 11-13 against Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit, and Week 16 against Kansas City. All of these games are against the dregs of the NFL, and all but the Oakland game are at home. If the Bengals are going to contend for a playoff spot, they MUST win these games. If the Bengals can win those four games, beat the Chargers and Jets, and win even one more game (preferrably against the Ravens), they basically lock up a playoff spot at 11-5 and tiebreakers over many other AFC wild-card contenders. This allows for losses against Chicago (who I actually think we will beat), at Pittsburgh, and at Minnesota. I'd love to win all of them, but the only game I can see as "winnable" of those three is Chicago. I know it's early, but through 6 games, the Bengals have put themselves in a very good position to make the playoffs this year.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.
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Wild Cards
I like the analysis, my only contention is that all games are winnable for us this year. We beat Pitt once, why not twice? and we beat baltimore once, why not twice? I don’t think we need to settle for the wild card spot yet. Also important to note, is that Pitt also has a tough schedule are definitely a beatable team and that Baltimore is looking more “human” each game. Minnesota defintely had their number until they let their guard down last week.
This is our year!
Baltimore and Pitt still have to play each other twice, so that automatically means that either both will have one more loss to account for, or one will have two more losses. That’s not a problem for us at this point since we have beat them both.
Plus, Pitt still has to play 5 games against opponents that are .500 or better
Minnesota
Bengals,
Baltimore (twice)
Green Bay
Don’t count us out all of a sudden.
Who Dey!
This is our year!
by Paul Cannon on Oct 20, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
They also play a tough Miami team @ Miami in the last week
And the way Pitt is playing against legit teams, I wouldn’t hand them anything just yet.
by WhoDeyDerek on Oct 20, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
You forget DEN so fast? I mean, granted, I don’t think DEN is going undefeated, but that is a game PIT still has to play against a .500+ team.
And that will be about the only game left on the season when I’m actually cheering for DEN. (Well probably also when they play BAL as well).
I agree that all games are winnable
I just don’t see us beating Pittsburgh at Heinz with Troy back, or us going into the dome and beating the Vikes.
They better be winnable
If we don’t think we can beat good teams then we don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.
by smoormandiddy on Oct 21, 2009 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes this is so very True
CB85......Collaros for Heisman
by TennBengalfan on Oct 22, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Just to clarify
I would love for us to go 14-2. I just don’t see that happening, nor do I think anyone here thinks that will happen. These are just the games that I think we have the smallest chance of winning, so I’m projecting them as losses. I think we CAN beat these teams, but I also think these teams have the best chance of beating us, especially on their home fields.
Strength of Schedule
Good article! and here’s another tidbit for all you bengal fans out there. The remaining Strength of Schedule for the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals looks like this
Ravens – 58% winning percentage
What good teams do they play? Steelers x2, Broncos, Bears, Packers, Colts, Bengals!
Steelers – 53% winning percentage
What good teams do they play? Vikings, Broncos, Bengals, Ravens x2, Dolphins, Packers
Bengals – 45% winning percentage
What good teams do they play? Steelers, Ravens, Bears, Chargers, Jets, Vikings
Of course, current Strength of Schedule is technically better than the Steelers or Ravens. And all these games are winnable. My thought is that if we take three from the good teams, and take care of business against the Browns, Chiefs, Lions, and Raiders, we will have a very good chance of seeing playoffs with 11 wins.
Who Dey Baby!
we always have problems with the so called cupcake games
but if we are a team deserving of the playoffs, we will beat those teams
CB85......Collaros for Heisman
by TennBengalfan on Oct 22, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
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