It's Carson Palmer Time!
It's time to take a look at Carson Palmer through the first 6 weeks of the season and talk about one of the most frustrating aspects of this season. Palmer has 1375 yards (229 yards per game). Of those yards 816 are first half yards (136 yard avg) and 496 second half yards (48. 6 yard avg). An eye popping 267 of the second half yards are in the last 2 minutes. Palmer also only has 40 total yards passing when the Bengals are leading. What's the frustration? It is the play calling!
Cedric Benson gets his props, he is having a great year but right now the Bengals need to throw more. At halftime I look at Palmers numbers and think; "great Carson is going to have 300+ yards and the Bengals are going to roll this team". Then the second half starts and the passing game goes dormant until the last two minutes of the game. The running game cannot shoulder the load for 60 minutes. The Bengals are wasting the weapons that could blow the doors off some of these close games.
What needs to be done? The Bengals need a fresh mind running the offense. Bratkowski is stifling this team with conservative and often predictable play calling. How about a first down play action fake? How about using the threat of Benson for a few big yard plays to Chris Henry and Chad Ochocinco down the field. Maybe some screens to slow down the pass rush and give Palmer a little more time in the pocket? Palmer only has 20 completions over 20 yards this season, Benson could run for 1800 yards this season if Palmer could double that output.
The bottom line is the Bengals need to throw more. Let Palmer run an abbreviated no huddle for one game, similar to the Sugar Huddle Offense the Bengals ran in the Boomer Esiason days. When Palmer starts having 300 to 350 yards a game the Bengals will start winning by touchdowns, not field-goals. The Bengals need to start jumping on teams and driving nails in coffins with the passing game. The Bengals need this and Cedric Benson needs this to stay healthy for the entire season. It's time to see a blowout win, and it's time for Palmer to have a breakout game!
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I agree in theory
Given the Bengals talent at QB and WR—passing to set up the run makes more sense than running to set up the pass. I give Benson a ton of credit on a good comeback year and the offensive line has performed much better than I expected given the personnel changes over the past 2 years. Similarly, I do question our relatively predictable play calling and the seemingly one dimensional offense.
The great thing about Palmer (at least in 2005-2007) was he forced the defense to cover the entire field. That is the bonus of having a QB with a strong and accurate arm and of having quick sure handed receivers. This opens up the running game because it forces the DBs to play loose and deep out of fear of the big play.
The no huddle has its place, however, I do think the Bengals overused at times—sometimes grinding out the clock is the best thing and the Bengals failed to do that—particularly given the shortcomings of our defense in the past.
The Bengals have a renewed sense of purpose this year—establish the run, use it to control the game, and then use it to set up the pass. Is it because Brat simply believes that a run first offense is the best? (Because thats how “great teams” win?) Or are their other reasons?
If you look at the outcomes so far, the Bengals offense is quite mediocre. We are 13th in time of possession (at least we are over 31mins), 16th in 3rd down conversions, 14th in rushing yards/game,19th in passing yrds/game, 20th in pts per game. The question is “Why?”
I can’t help but wonder that it isn’t simply play calling—it may be that we have been pretty good up to this point at covering certain weaknesses. Namely, an inexperienced offensive line and no over the middle pass catching threat.
1. The offensive line—it has performed above expectations, but the line is clearly new at playing together (and I still think in transition—don’t be surprised if both Smith and Luigs find their way into the line up before year end) and offensive lines almost always take a few years to gel. Therefore, I don’t think an offensive packed with no-huddle plays and audibles is terribly practical unless you are ready for a bunch of missed assignments, Palmer on his back, and illegal procedure penalties. I just don’t think our line is up to it. I suspect our run first approach may be more developmental than strategic.
2. Defenses—It was either Lewis or Palmer that Denver was good at taking away the long ball and forcing us to run. This strategy against the Bengals isn’t new. Teams picked up on that in 2007. Run a cover two and force the Bengals to run. Our line began experiencing problems that year due to injuries and departures and we have yet to totally recover. Conventional wisdom remains—play the cover 2 against the Bengals and you can stifle their passing game.
3. Beating the Cover 2—Their are two ways to beat the cover two. One is with a strong inside running game. This forces the safeties up (reverse of what we were able to do in 2005-7), makes play action on first down a real treat, and opens up mid and deep passing lanes—hence our run first approach. Second, with a strong pass catching tight end (or running back for that matter) that can beat a linebacker over the middle. We know where we are with that one—run first it is!
I want a Palmer to have breakout game and would love to see us open up on someone. We may see it soon, however, I the Bengals overall offensive strategy will largely depend on what our offensive line is capable of doing. And if my suspicion is true—that we inexperience is a problem and we have yet to see the “final product”—we may keep a conservative approach all year.
by goffchile on Oct 21, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The no huddle does NOT have to actually be used as “hurry up”. You can no-huddle simple to prevent the opponents from substituting. Carson has experienced WRs out there. He can signal to them with hand signals if need be what he wants them to run. Or do a bit of jogging back and forth to tell them as they do a “semi-huddle” without actually huddling up completely.
If you do something like that, you can still run the play clock down to 5 seconds or so every play and take time off the clock while still dictating to the defense. Just look at Indy. They run no-huddle all the time it seems, and they get to the line quickly, but then they just stand around without actually getting set right away.
I do agree that we need somebody who can catch the ball over the middle. Caldwell is getting there but he’s not quite an expert yet. And we need a TE who can catch in there, regardless of whether he blocks or not IMO. How many times do you see Dallas Clark (or Tony Gonzales) blocking on a run play? They’re still out there on quite a few of them. Because they know what they are doing on how to fool a defense into thinking one thing (pass) when they really want to do another (run).
Unfortunately it seems at the moment that we don’t. Is that the players are too inexperienced? Maybe. Or is it the coordinator is an idiot? Well either he is or he does a very convincing imitation, but is that the actual cause of the problem or just an unfortunate side effect? Not sure.
by FriarBob on Oct 21, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My concern with the no huddle
..isn’t whether or not we can burn the clock or whether Ochocinco knows what to do. It is whether our line knows what to do. Pass protection is more complicated than simply knowing the play—it is about picking up stunts, having confidence in the guy to your left and to your right, and functioning like a unit without having to think about it. The no-huddle, although designed to get mismatches and wear out the D, also puts a lot of pressure on the offense to know what do and make proper reads. That only comes with time and experience—something that this line doesn’t have.
Whitworth and Williams are the only two with significant experience playing together as starters. Given this I’ve been impressed they have played as well as they have, but some of this may be a matter of time.
by goffchile on Oct 21, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have a good point, but that’s why I mentioned the “semi-huddle”. When three to six people get together and the rest of the folks do NOT do so then you can still give quick advice and such to specific players (such as linemen) and yet still be in the “no-huddle” enough to prevent (or at least make extremely difficult) defensive substitutions.
Assuming of course you don’t want to substitute yourself. :)
by FriarBob on Oct 21, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agree and disagree. good points, but you need to back it up with more than just 'Brat Sucks'.
cedric benson is the reason our offense moves the ball, and dropped passes are the reason our drives stall and our momentum is killed. benson is at the top of all NFL rushing stat lists, and our dropped passes are as well.
i do agree that bratkowski sucks miles of cock when calling the plays, but one thing i have liked so far is his commitment to the run game. until sunday’s game cedric benson was the leading rusher in the NFL and any time you have that guy on your team, you should give him the ball a lot. a hell of a lot more than 4 times in the second half (except not on an inside draw while trailing by 11 with under 3 minutes left). all Brat and his retarded gameplans…
in official stats (AFC ONLY) benson on the season has posted 531 yards (2nd), 127 ATT (1st), 4.2 YPC (3rd among RB with 70 ATT or more), 88.5 YPG (3rd), 4 TD (5th). *
according to football outsiders (ALL NFL), benson has 87 DYAR (6th), 573 EYds (3rd), 8.0% DVOA (10th, not so good, but not bad considering the defenses we’ve played against), and a 45% Success Rate (10th).**
my point is, cedric benson is a very good back on his way to a pro bowl season and we need to use him more… especially when trying to control the clock, set ourselves up for more 3rd and shorts, and NOT having palmer drop back 40+ times a game. plus with the amount of drops we’ve had, and the fact that more drop-backs means more vulnerability to palmer (a guy we simply cannot lose), a true commitment to the run game is absolutely essential. in the second half of the Houston game, benson only had 4 carries. FOUR CARRIES. and one of them was one of the most ill-advised plays in the history of football. we should have used benson way more than 4 times in the second half, and when brian leonard is healthy, we should be using him a shit-load too.
courtesy of NFL.com
*courtesy of footballoutsiders.com
by GrooveLeg on Oct 21, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Schedule of Run Stop Defenses
The next three games are against teams strong against the run. I predict that teams are going to start loading up against the run more. Benson can still get his 25 carries but if the runs are less conspicuously designed & executed by mixing in a better passing attack I like the chances of Benson holding up. If he is “grinding” out yards he will be less effective by week 14 or 15 when we need him to be ready to make a run. Kirk: Any word on when we will get a viable threat at TE back on the active roster? I do think that we need a TE threat, most contenders have one!
by Vman in Germany on Oct 21, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
we are just so predictable
even the Texans Defensive players noted it after the game!!!
CB85......Collaros for Heisman
by TennBengalfan on Oct 21, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you can see that all the way from Germany...
Why the heck can’t Brat see that from the Coaches Box? Maybe he needs to get down on the field and see the obvious need for opening up this offensive playbook and dire need to establish the tempo against lesser teams.
And yes, the Bears are a lesser team.
by Yaccub Fleishcman on Oct 21, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All those sabermetrics...
SOME times its good to rely on sabermetrics for your analysis but it’s not always smart to rely on Cedric Benson supplying all the offense on 1st and 2nd down.
Aggregate totals aren’t going to determine a decision when you’re actually playing the game. Your avg yds per carry may be 4.0 yds/carry with 12 yds on 3 rushes, but if those were 3 carries for -3, 6 and 8 yards, then that means on a third down, you may not want to rush it b/c your back may get caught in the backfield. My point: Football Outsider is cool for an aspect of game analysis, but it’s not the end-all be-all.
With that said, running the ball all game wasn’t the story on Sunday – dropped passes and predictable play calling were. And that is 1/2 the fault of Coach Brat. “Brat Sux” is part of the problem, but not all.
Playing the right players is another issue - Chase Coffman is a sure thing but we choose to not play him. That’s also the fault of the O.Coordinator. F***, this needs to stop… Just set the tempo, change up the playcalling and let the ball fly. Not so hard.
by Yaccub Fleishcman on Oct 21, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i agree with most of what you said, and i never said that FO is the be all end all.
i certainly am not relying on them nor do i ever. but, Success Rate is great for determining those things because it takes into account those kinds of losses, gains, down to go, etc. and 45% is actually pretty good.
my point with all those stats was that benson is in the top 10 or top 5 in a lot of rushing categories through 6 tough games and that MEANS SOMETHING… you can’t deny that. i agree that dropped passes were the thing that killed us, but maybe we would have been able to call some different plays (which could have possibly had different outcomes, both good and bad) had we run the ball more to set the tempo.
and i can’t disagree with you more about chase coffman being a sure thing.
by GrooveLeg on Oct 21, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A sure thing
Is it a sure thing that Coffman will be the 2nd coming of Dan Ross? [moment of silence…] No.
Is it a sure thing that Coffman will be at least as good as Coats has been? Absolutely!
by TheWalrus1971 on Oct 21, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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