Bengals could define their season by mid-November; a look at why Bengals fans should be Broncos fans too
by Kirkendall on Oct 27, 2009 9:57 AM EDT
in Playoffs
37 comments
Since this is sort of an off-week, I'm going to take the "take it one game at a time" and throw it in the desk drawer for a while. The great thing about being 5-2 is that the Bengals are tied for first place -- in truth, they have a one-game lead because of the team's win over the Steelers earlier in the season. Now, Cincinnati is preparing for another gauntlet with the division's powerhouses against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. If, and that's a big if, the Bengals win both games, they launch themselves to 7-2. Not only did that seem impossible to envision after last season, but sometimes it still seems impossible. Yet, it's very real. And it's very possible.
And we're getting healthy with preparations with a divine-like timing of a bye week.
The Baltimore Ravens had their bye week already last week and host the undefeated Denver Broncos this Sunday. Like the Bengals, the Pittsburgh Steelers have their bye week this week. On November 9 (a Monday Night game), the Broncos will host the Steelers.
It's an understatement to say that we're going to be hardcore Bronco cheerleaders for two weeks. After each game that the Broncos play the Ravens and Steelers, the Bengals play them the following week. Can the Broncos sustain their undefeated season? Let's say, in a perfect world, the Broncos and Bengals beat both teams. This will give the Bengals at least a three-game edge over the Steelers (two-game lead, plus head-to-head tie-breaker) and a five-game edge over the Baltimore Ravens (four-game lead, plus head-to-head tie-breaker). With seven games remaining, the Bengals chances of making the playoffs aren't just good, they're damned near certain, if not extraordinary. After Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Bengals host Oakland (2-5) and play the Browns (1-6) and Lions (1-5) -- three teams with a combined 4-16 record -- a .200 winning percentage. That's a potential 10-2 record. Cincinnati heads to Minnesota on December 13 and finishes the season at San Diego, hosting Kansas City and at New York Jets.
Even if they don't win the division, there's a great chance that at least one wild card comes out of the AFC North. The New York Jets are 4-3 and favorites to make the playoffs, at least via the Wild Card. The Bengals play the Jets in the regular season finale.
In a perfect world, the Bengals could define their season by mid-November.
Alright, alright. I pulled the "take it one game at a time" out of my drawer and onto my desk.
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Off Topic
Hey guys… this is off-topic, but I figured you’d know. Did something happen to Quan that made them send Caldwell out to field punts late against the Bears? From what I saw, there weren’t many punts to field due to your defense getting several turnovers, but a buddy saw that Caldwell had like 3 punt returns, and wondered.
Thanks!
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
by beefy on Oct 27, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nothing I know of.
The Bengals didn’t return a punt, so, to be honest, I didn’t pay attention to who was back there.
Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.
by Kirkendall on Oct 27, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Must've been kickoff returns...
he was looking at.
I watched almost all of y’alls game and didn’t see any except the “peter” that Quan called for early on. Wasn’t sure though.
Thanks Kirkendall! Best of luck to you guys the rest of the way, unless we butt heads again in the (gulp) playoffs.
Bacon tastes good... Pork chops taste good.
by beefy on Oct 27, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Back on Topic
I would be fine with the Ravens and Steelers beating the Broncos. If the Broncos lose 2 and the Bengals win 2, we are tied with the Broncos for the Bye (Broncos tie breaker head-to-to head). The Ravens upcoming schedule is tough with Games coming against Indy, 2 against Pit, Green Bay, Chicago (and thats not counting Denver and Cincy). PIT isn’t quite as bad but is sitll tough with 2 against BAL, and Green Bay.
Cincy has the best or second best road to the play-offs, Denver plays NYG and at PHI, and Houston has Indy twice and NE, though they have the tie breaker with us.
My biggest concern would be to go11-5 and lose out on a tie-breaker to Houston. Sorry if this rambled.
by jim0ijk on Oct 27, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we have to worry about Houston going 11-5
That would mean they win 7 of 9 the rest of the way. They’ve been better than 8-8.
by St. Esiason on Oct 27, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Houston
Houston is 4-3 and only plays 3 games against teams with winning records, 2 of which are at home. I could easily see Houston going 10-6, and 11-5 is possible if New England has nothing to play for at Houston the last week of the season. Maybe My concern is that the Jets, Bengals, Houston and Baltimore finish 10-6, and we get shut out, but 11-5 and shut out is also possible.
by jim0ijk on Oct 27, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We only get shut out if we lose the division in that scenario. Am I the only one here who thinks we can do that?
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Oct 28, 2009 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just say your note down below…
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Oct 28, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*just saw your note
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Oct 28, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bengals Football = Fluid flow equations?
Hope the Bengals rest well this week. All thos nagging injuries should have a week to get healed. Two toughest opponents in the same division on a back to back basis. Love to see the Bengals win both but I would be happy with either one. Of the two, I’d love to see we beat Steelers twice.
by Richard L on Oct 27, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What about the 1st Round Bye?
I want it all. Broncos lose to Ravens & Steelers. Bengals beat Ravens & Steelers. Bengals have to win the division and finish with a better record than the Broncos to get the 1st Round Bye. I am thinking way ahead.
Broncos schedule gets tougher. They have Eagles, Giants, Colts coming later. I can see them with 5 losses possibly. I also think New England will take a few more losses (they also have the Colts coming later). Can Cincinnati make it to 12-4? (I am conceding #1 seed to Colts.)
by California Bengal Fan on Oct 27, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Has anybody else looked at the Colt’s schedule? It looks ridiculously easy, and I’ve also noticed that the first half of their schedule was equally easy. Payton Manning would literally have to blow up for them not to get a first round bye.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Oct 27, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Colts have the secondtoughest remaining schedule of AFC play-off contenders
They play SF (3-3), Houston (4-3), NE (5-2), BAL (3-3), Denver (6-0), Houston (again), and the Jets. Not only is their schedule tough, at least relative to most play-off contenders, they will also play a huge role in the wildcard by playing Baltimore, Houston twice and the Jets.
by jim0ijk on Oct 27, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right, but
I guess I looked at it like this…
SF is starting to slip and I still consider them to be a mediocre team. I think they are a (C+) team
Houston is good, but has big holes that they need to fill. I rate them a (B-).
The Jets seem great somedays, but terrible others. They get a (B-) for their inconsistency.
I don’t see any of these teams as being elite, but I could be wrong. Houston beat us after all and the jets beat New England. I admit they are playoff contenders at this point though.
NE is legit (A-)
Bal looked great out of the gates, and have slipped recently, but they are a good football team (B+) .
Denver is legit and gets an (A) thusfar
These teams I consider to be the toughest competition on their schedule.
Maybe I just have a lot of respect for the AFC North, but I think Baltimore and Pitt look like they have brutal schedules coming up, since they have to play each other twice, and us once.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Oct 28, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and both of them have to play Denver
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Oct 28, 2009 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have Baltimore having the toughest schedule
They could easily finish 6-10 with Games upcoming against Cincy, 2 against Pit, Indy, DEN, GB and the Bears. 9-7 is more likely and 10-6 is possible. They could be a surprise for New England if they sneak into the play-offs and play at New England.
Pittsburgh only has the 3 games mentioned plus Denver and Green Bay, although Miami is probably tougher than their record indicates. I could easily see Pittsbugh finishing 12-4.
by jim0ijk on Oct 28, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can't be serious
Did you not read this compelling article. You NEED Denver to win. Every Denver victory over an AFC North Opponent favors the Bengals. Your 1st round bye theory went out the door when you let Houston come into your house and beat you at your game.
Also, stop listening to Jamie Dukes and Mark Clayton—Denver is the tough part of the schedule for the other teams, not vice versa. We have proven that we can beat the great teams, Cincinnati, New England, Dallas, Sandy Eggo. Denver beat them, convincingly (No Hocculi calls this year)! Denver victories also contribute to your strength of schedule.
So its not Denver that you need to cheer against! You need to cheer for them!!!
by Future Bronco DC on Oct 28, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody has mentioned....
The Ravens and Steelers have to play each other as well. If the Ravens win both they are back in the hunt and the Steelers step back. If the Steelers beat the Ravens twice they are in the catbird seat. If they split both take a one game step back.
Frankly I think we could, without being too optimistic, win all of the games except the Ravens, Steelers, Jets and Vikings with reasonable confidence. I also think it is possible we will split the above games with beating the Ravens and Jets being the most likely. This would put us 12-4. I realize that this is an optimistic view. Even if this happens it is not at all out of the question for the Steelers to run the table.
The Bengals, Broncos, Ravens twice, the Packers and the Dolphins are the Steelers biggest threats with the Bengals and Ravens being the hardest games. I don’t see the Dolphins, Broncos and Packers beating them. As for the Ravens, well they are 2 games back and have to play the Bengals, Colts and the Steelers twice as well as the Packers and Bears. I don’t see them beating the Colts or Steelers twice. So by my logic I see the Steelers needing a win against the Dolphins and the Bengals needing a win against the Jets going into the last game of the season. None of this of course takes injuries into consideration. If, for example Flacco, Ben or Carson go down their team will go down as well.
" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran
by JUNGLEJOHN on Oct 27, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We really need to beat the Jets
If not we will lose the tie breaker to every contender. I looked at scenarios in which the Bengals lose to the Ravens, Steelers and Minnesota, and we should still make the play-offs as long as we don’t get upset. But if we lose to the Jets we could end up on the bad side of a group at 10-6 and lose the play-off spot to either Houston, Baltimore, or the Jets. That is a bad spot to be.
by jim0ijk on Oct 27, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except
If we lose to the Jets, then we lose every tie except for the ones in our division. I think we have a shot to win the division and that ought to be our #1 goal. If we beat Pitt and Baltimore, then we have great chances getting it done.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Oct 27, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I would much rather win the division, and there is no reason we can’t beat Baltimore at home, but if we don’t win against Baltimore or Pittsburgh, then we may have to consider other options for the play-offs. Both of their remaining schedules are tougher than ours though.
by jim0ijk on Oct 27, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AFC is tough
10-6 would normally be a good spot to be in for a playoff bid, in the NFC. It seems as though in the last few years at least, the AFC wild card bids are a little harder to come by. With Denver (thanks to that infamous tip) and Indy both continuing their respective unbeaten streaks, the Bengals need to continue to dominate the North. The Baltimore game coming out of the bye should give us a very good indication of how our post season picture might shape up. With our beloved Bengals struggling to contend with the crowd noise (been awhile since the crowd at PBS has been so optimistic) at home, the road games scare me the least.
by krumrie on Oct 27, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They did pretty well with crowd noise Sunday.
Fewest penalties of the year. Hopefully it’s a trend, and they stay disciplined through the bye.
by jsl413 on Oct 27, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All this Math makes my head hurt
I took Algebra1 3 times in high school!!! letters have no business in math WTF!!
CB85......Collaros for Heisman
by TennBengalfan on Oct 27, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow you guys talk playoffs pretty early!
Not that I don’t think it isn’t realistic…your team looks very VERY solid. I really enjoyed the whooping they gave da Bears last week!
That being said, come cheer for the Broncos! I expect a split in the next two games, but it is very possible that my Broncos beat both teams for you.
"Precipitation, which side are you on?
Are you on the rise? Are you falling down?
Let me know, Come on let's go, yeah
Got some if you need it!" -EV
by sadaraine on Oct 27, 2009 6:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
When you've been to the playoffs once in 18 years you can talk as early as you want!
At 5-2 and 3-0 in our division with our only losses coming to an undefeated team and another playoff contender I feel we have a very good shot. So why not dream during the bye week.
by St. Esiason on Oct 27, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea!!! It's allowed during the bye week.
by WHYUS!! on Oct 27, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I start thinking about the play-offs before the combine.
Why else would you watch a sport except to cheer for your team to win? The play-offs are a part of that until eliminanted, then its time to think about next years play-offs.
by jim0ijk on Oct 27, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea but!!!! One playoff game in 18 years????
Let’s cheer and hpoe!!!!!
by WHYUS!! on Oct 28, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey guys!
We’d gladly knock off your two division rivals for you if you’d just return the favor against SD and KC for us! ; )
Seriously, I just wanted to share that since the Bengals-Broncos little joust in game one, a lot of us MHRers have been telling people that Cincinnati is a good frakkin team. Early on, not many believed in us or you, and isn’t it great to upset people’s expectations the way our two teams have this year!
Soldier on, and best wishes for the remainder of your year! Let’s set a date to meet up again in the postseason some time soon, ya dig? Cheers!
PS: My wife is a huge Browns fan — don’t tell her I was over here, kay? ; )
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Oct 27, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
by the way, great post Kirk
rec’d!
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Oct 27, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deal!
Now how do we break this to the other teams?
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Oct 28, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We will pass them a note
Give it to Rey and he can deliver it personally. Frankly, beating both the Chargers and the Chiefs is a lot more realistic than I once thought. The Chiefs are however a team that is on the ropes with nothing to lose and sets up perfectly as a trap game. The Chargers, at least now, don’t seem like the same team. Good QB but LT isn’t doing so well as their Oline seems to have slipped. Their D is way too talented to be playing the way they are. We should be able to beat them but either could reach up and bite us in the ass. But we seem to be getting better every game and when I look back the losses each helped us in a way. The loss to Denver taught the team to finish and play hard to the end. The Texans loss taught them that they cannot be complacent. I think our best football is ahead of us.
" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran
by JUNGLEJOHN on Oct 28, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agree
and man do I love Rey Rey. He’s gonna be a beast for you guys for years to come. I thought we might nab him in the first round, but then we ended up (somehow!) with Knowshon. Not complaining though! ; )
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Oct 28, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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