Is a 3-1 Record an Indicator of Good Things to come?
by Jay McDonnell on Oct 7, 2009 8:00 PM EDT
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PrintThe Cincinnati Bengals have hit the quarter season post with a record that many prognosticators didn't see coming. At 3-1, the Bengals have placed themselves in a tie, thanks to the Baltimore Ravens losing to New England, with the Ravens for the division lead. That leaves the game next week in Baltimore looking even larger than expected.
Through the years, the Bengals have started slow out of the gates and then finished with a flurry after their fate had been decided, usually winning the final 3 or 4 games of the season to gain some respectability. On a rare occasion, including this year, the Bengals have started out fast causing everyone to stand up and take notice. But how do they fare as the grind of the season continues? Do they carry the momentum from the quick start through the season, or do they falter and find themselves working on their golf game and planning their vacations in early January?
The more recent 3-1 start for the Bengals was the 2006 season. After setting the world on fire by winning the division and making the playoffs for the first time in 15 years the year before, they started out to meet the expectations to repeat as division champs and make the playoffs for the second consecutive year, which has never happened in franchise history. After winning the first 3 game of the season, they lost to New England in a Sunday night game, which sent them stumbling through the rest of way winning only 5 of the remaining 12 games finishing 8-8. However, injuries to several key people could be a contributor to the Bengals season falling short of expectations.
The 2005 season saw the fast start propel the team to good things. The Bengals won the first 4 games of the season before losing in week 5 to the Jaguars in Jacksonville. But that loss had no effect on the team as they continued on to an 11-5 record and the franchise's first division title since 1990. With two weeks to go in the season and the division title in hand with an 11-3 record, the Bengals decided to rest their starters for the final two games. This decision resulted in consecutive losses to end the regular season, preventing them from finishing with a franchise best 13-3 record. Of course we know the outcome of the playoff game so I won't go into that expect to say that over the past few years since that game, I have talked to a number of Pittsburgh Steeler fans who admitted to me that had Carson not gone down with the injury, the Bengals would have won the game. I digress.
Prior to the 2005 division championship, 1990 was the last time the Bengals started the season 3-1 or better winning the first three games of the season before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in week 4. The Bengals then cruised for the rest of the year to finish 9-7 and division title. They went on to win the Wild Card game against the Houston Oilers 41-14 but lost to the Los Angeles Raiders (when they were good) 20-10.
After suffering the franchises second loss in the Super Bowl to the San Francisco 49er's, the 1989 season had a belief that a fast start would be just what was needed to get the Bengals back to the Promised Land. After losing the first game of the 1989 season, they won the next 4 games to post a 4-1 record before losing the next two and then sputtering to a disappointing 8-8 record. This record is not indicative of how potent the offense was as they outscored the opposition 404-285. The Boomer Esiason lead offense scored 40 or more points 4 times that year including a 61-7 beating of the Houston Oilers. Despite the high powered offense, the defense was unable to keep the opposition from squeaking out victories against them preventing the Bengals from making the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
The 1988 season started off with the Bengals winning the first 6 games of the season before losing to New England in week seven. They went on to win the 6 of the final 9 games to finish 12-4, completing one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history after suffering through a 4-11 season in 1987. The fast start not only propelled them to a division title, but after beating Seattle and the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs, they made their second appearance in the Super Bowl against the 49'ers.
The 1981 season was the first year the loved/hated Bengals stripes were introduced on the uniform. You could draw the conclusion that the new uniforms could have provided the inspiration for the team that finished 6-10 the season before. The first four games of the season the Bengals started out 3-1 with team going on to win 9 of the next 12 games winning the division title. But unlike the other playoff appearances in the 1970's, this team led by Ken Anderson made the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance beating Buffalo and then the Dan Fouts led San Diego Chargers in what is considered the freezer bowl. Temperatures' were measured at -9 degrees with a wind chill factor of -59!!! I was in Columbus (my hometown) at the time, and that is when I grew a hatred for cold weather.
The 70's provided a number of seasons when the Bengals started fast either at 3-1 or 4-0 for the first 4 games, 1971 and 1973-76. Only twice did the Bengals make the playoffs which were the 1973 and 1975 seasons after finishing with a 10-4 record. The 1976 season produced a 10-4 record as well but the Bengals lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers for the division title due to a tie breaker and did not qualify for a wild card spot (there was only one at that time) as New England finished with an 11-3 record finishing ahead of the Bengals for that spot. After the fast start for the 1971 season, the team finished a disappointing 7-7.
So what does all this mean? Fast starts usually propel the Bengals into the playoffs, and on a couple of occasions, to the Super Bowl. Only two seasons since 1980 did the Bengals start fast and then not make the playoffs. Both of those seasons they started hot and faded down the road. The 2006 season was looking like a playoff repeat of 2005 as they carried an 8-5 record heading into the last three games of the year, which they lost due to injuries to key players. In 1989 after starting 4-1, the Bengals fell to 5-5 after week 10 and then split the final 6 games of the season at 3-3.
So what will this season's outcome be? Since the franchise has been around, they have never finished below .500 after making a fast start. Most of the fast starts have resulted in the Bengals qualifying for the playoffs at a minimum, and on occasion, landing in the Super Bowl. Couple the fast start with a favorable schedule, this could be a season that has been duplicated only twice in the 40 year existence of our beloved Bengals.
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The 2006 season was looking like a playoff repeat of 2005 as they carried an 8-5 record heading into the last three games of the year, which they lost due to injuries to key players.
Were Brad St. Louis and Shane Graham injured?
all the 3-1 start means is that we’re only two wins away from being better than last year. we can’t get ahead of ourselves as fans, and the team certainly can’t afford to think that 3-1 means anything other than that’s one loss they can’t take later. i’m eternally optimistic about this team, but i won’t celebrate anything until it’s genuine.
i'm going to go america all over your ass!
you squeeked by cleveland and pitt handed you the game (a few times). what is your confidence level heading into sunday? marvins 2 minute drill against pitt was terrible (but somehow worked). did you see it that way?
we beat pitt the same way they’ve beat many teams through the years, by taking advantage of opportunities and controlling the clock at the end of the game. we’ve always matched up well against baltimore, especially with carson at the helm. there’s always concern that it’ll be a loss, because baltimore’s a good team and a division rival, but we’re still 7-5 against the ravens with marvin as head coach.
i'm going to go america all over your ass!
man, child please...
to answer your question—yes and no. i’ll take any win we can get at this point. wouldn’t you if you were in our situation?
the common theme of this team is that we play up and down to our opponents.
we squeaked by cleveland? most of the games in the NFL are decided by 7 points or less and we were on the road. teams win by a field goal in overtime all the time. we still put points up when we needed to and the bottom line is that we won. i agree though—i’d call it “squeaking by” since we played largely uninspired football and didn’t stop their below-average run game.
pitt handed us the game? pitt’s defensive strategy in that final drive is not going to work against any team. we took what the defense gave us and we converted key 4th down plays to keep the game alive. we played extremely well when we needed to which is a nice change from past years. i’ve watched that game three times now and pitt didn’t hand us anything—we beat them. i don’t care what anyone says. bottom line again is that we won.
my confidence level is about 60% right now. marvin has a winning record against the ravens so we typically play them pretty well. it’s going to come down to the wire, but i have no reason not to like our chances.
i don’t care how you’ve chosen to look at our success—both of our teams are 3-1 and are tied for the lead of the division. i’m guessing you didn’t come here to cause trouble, but your comment can be taken as a knock to our team when, really, you don’t have much room to talk after your loss last week. at least our only loss came against one of the two undefeated teams in the AFC and it was on a one in a million fluke. obviously we’ll know who has bragging rights after sunday’s game. one thing is for sure, none of us are going to roll over and play dead just because we’re playing the scary ravens in baltimore. WHO DEY!
wahh
“you squeeked by cleveland.”
win’s a win.
"and pitt handed you the game (a few times). "
interesting viewpoint. flip side of your viewpoint would be, cincy took the game away from pitt several times.
“what is your confidence level heading into sunday?”
balt has a losing record vs marvin lewis.
“marvins 2 minute drill against pitt was terrible (but somehow worked).”
that would be brat. some in cincy believe the players make the plays. some believe the players make the plays in spite of what brat calls.
To answer your question - NO
The record at this point says absolutely nothing about how the season is going to progress. Hell we could end up 3-13. Oh wait we play the Chiefs. Ok 4-12. What indicates the rest of the season’s outcome is the way we are playing and winning. This team is different in one major way. We are playing with heart and determination even in the face of the fact that the O not reached stride. We are under performing in over half of the quarters we have played and find a way to get down field and score when the game is on the line. We have done that all 4 games. That is not a fluke. Previous Bengal teams would have lose confidence and folded like a cheap lawn chair.
This means that if we can keep the game in striking distance during the bad periods of the game we can step up when it matters. When any opponent plays us they can get be assured that we are going to play hard until the last second. If we can get the O back to where we know it can be that is when we can go from a dangerous team to a very dangerous team. We are one of only a few teams that can though not “elite” now can, if things go right, become one as the season progresses. Most of the very top teams are at the top of their game. With they do not have the potential to get a lot better. That is not the case with the Bengals. We are winning at 75% of our potential.
As the 11 of 22 starters who are either new to the team, rookies or in a new position continue to gel and Carson gets more and more comfortable we should get to 90% by week 8. Is that going to happen? I think so but we still have to do it. It is the fulfillment of our potential that will determine the outcome of the season. The 3-1 record is just a motivator and a step up.
" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran
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