A premature look at playoff scenarios: Bengals have the second seed in the AFC

by Josh Kirkendall on Nov 18, 2009 12:03 PM EST in Playoffs

With 2:08 left in the fourth quarter, with a 34-28 lead, the New England Patriots take a timeout Sunday night. They were discussing the upcoming punt situation with two yards to go on fourth down at the Patriots own 28-yard line. Everyone was sure of it. Tom Brady was there, talking about personnel and offering his input about a special teams play. Right? He is, after all, Tom freaking Brady. When Brady returned to the field, you flipped your wrist in a gesture to say "get the hell out", you're just trying to draw the defense offsides. Why do teams do that? When the situation is clearly obvious that the quarterback is trying to... Wait. Dan Koppen just snapped it. Wait. Tom Brady caught the snap in shotgun. Wait. Tom Brady is surveying the field. Wait. He threw the pass to Kevin Faulk. Wait. The official marked it short of a first down. Wait. Indianapolis' ball. What. The. Hell. Just. Happened. Did New England just go for it? The lonely echoes of an electronic guitar playing a sad ballard, like in a bar off an Arizona highway, emanate on the Patriots' sidelines.

In the following minute and 44 seconds, Peyton Manning led the offense on a four-play, 29-yard touchdown drive to win the game with 16 seconds remaining. This, by far, led to one of the biggest sessions of Monday Morning Quarterbacking in recent memory. And it's deserved. But the Patriots' justification, who haven't shied away from making similar choices in the past, makes sense. Before the game winning touchdown, Manning led two touchdown drives, both with a time of possession under 2:04, forcing Bill Belichick to conclude that Manning will score from anywhere; a conclusion that every person that's paid by the NFL and all of their teams have reached. If the Patriots had picked up the first down, the game is over.

From a Bengals fan perspective, that missed fourth down conversation gave the Bengals sole possession of the second seed in the AFC. Granted, it doesn't mean much with seven games remaining. But they are in sole possession of the second seed. Let that digest for a moment. Go ahead, lean back in your chair, interlock your fingers behind your head and grin like only maddening fans of a team with decades of futility can grin. If the playoffs were to start today -- yes, yes, I know they don't -- the Bengals would have a bye week and host at least one home game.

In the meantime, the Bengals are still a trap game away from losing everything they've earned so far. Let's take a look at the Bengals and Steelers remaining schedule.

Side-by-side comparison of the Bengals and Steelers remaining schedule
Date	Opponent	Date	Opponent
Nov 22	@ Oakland	Nov 22	@ Kansas City
Nov 29	Cleveland	Nov 29	@ Baltimore (SNF)
Dec 6	Detroit	Dec 6	Oakland
Dec 13	@ Minnesota	Dec 10	@ Cleveland (TNF)
Dec 20	@ San Diego	Dec 20	Green Bay
Dec 27	Kansas City	Dec 27	Baltimore
Jan 3	@ NY Jets	Jan 3	@ Miami

NOTES:

If the season were to end today. The Steelers and Chargers would be the wild card and the Patriots would host the Steelers during the first weekend. If the Broncos beat the Chargers and the Steelers beat the Patriots, Cincinnati would host the Steelers in the playoffs... again. If the Broncos and Patriots win opening playoff weekend, the Bengals would host the Broncos... again.
The Bengals could find themselves in trouble if the Denver Broncos lose the AFC West to the San Diego Chargers and say another team, like the Houston Texans made a run for the playoffs. The Bengals would lose the tie-breaker to the Broncos and Texans because Cincinnati lost the head-to-head meeting to both teams.

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Baltimore

I see Baltimore getting the second wild card spot behind Pitsburgh. Baltimore’s 4 losses have all come against good teams, (NE, MIN, and CIN). They still have 2 games against Pittsburgh and a game against INdy, plus GB, CHI, OAK and DET. I see at least 4 wins there, and they could beat INDY, PIT or both at home over the next 2 weeks.

Denver palys SD, NYG, and INDY in 3 of their next 4 and a reeling a bit. Plus they have a game at philly late that could be a play-off elimiation game for both teams.

Jacksonville, Houston and Tenessee are all playing decent right now and will likely derail each other.

I could easily see 3 AFC North teams making the play-offs this year.

by jim0ijk on Nov 18, 2009 12:37 PM EST reply actions

I think that’s a tall order, and you haven’t factored in San Diego who is playing really well in a relatively weak division with a relatively weak remaining schedule.

The Chargers tough games will be against the Broncos, the Cowboys and the Bengals, but they also have the Chiefs, the Browns, the Redskins and the Titans (who I think is actually a decent team that will end up with a .500 record this year.

If Denver can beat the Chargers this week, then Baltimore might have an outside chance if they start playing their best football of the year. The other thing that I think would probably have to happen is that Baltimore would almost have to sweep the Steelers.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Nov 18, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

I actually did

I am assuming that the Chargers will win vs Denver and win the AFC West. Denver is reeling a bit and the Chargers are coming in with confidence. They are followig the same MO as last year win late and win the Division. Denver seems to be broken a bit after playing the Ravens and Steelers and have a tough 4 game stretch.

If Denver does beat the Chargers, then the Chagers become the favorite for the wild card.

Baltimore has the tie breaker over both teams, which is in their favor.

by jim0ijk on Nov 18, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

Benson did not practice today..

by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Nov 18, 2009 12:44 PM EST reply actions

There is definitely going to be a log jam

…for that second spot. The Steelers schedule is so easy that its hard to not see them as the #1 wild card. In fact, we have to play like the Steelers are going to win out—because they just might. Of course a first week bye and home field would be sweet.

I know Steelers fans are chomping at the bit for a rematch. I say Bring it!

I’d love the Ravens stay in it as long as possible so they don’t lay down for the week 16 game in Pittsburgh, but without some big time breaks, its going to be tough.

by goffchile on Nov 18, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions

Baltimore needs to win one of those games

by smoormandiddy on Nov 18, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Rooting for the Ravens.

Yes. Bleech. But then again, Unless the Bengals are playing them, I always root for the Steelers opposition.

by UpStateMike on Nov 19, 2009 5:43 AM EST up reply actions

I think you said that wrong…I’m pretty sure you meant “I always root for the Steelers opposition” without the “unless the Bengals are playing them” part.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Nov 20, 2009 12:54 AM EST up reply actions

Bengal have a harder road than Pittsburgh

The best we can hope for is that the Steelers & Ravens split. With a split Pittsburgh will go 6-1. Miami at home provides the only real shot at an upset of the Steelers. The schedule that needs to be in this graphic is the Patriots. The real possibility here is that the Bengal, Patriots, & Steelers have the same record. Bengals tie breaker being key in winning the division, but where do they stand in tie breakers with the Patriots & a first round bye. Look for a Bengal rematch in the 1st round with the Texans; Predictions:
Colts 15-1 Division
Patriots 13-3 Division
Bengals 13-3 Division
Chargers 11-5 Division
Steelers 12-4 Wildcard
Houston 10-6 Wildcard
Ravens 9-7 Outside looking in
Broncos 9-7 Tank

by Vman in Germany on Nov 18, 2009 4:30 PM EST reply actions

who hands us our third loss?

by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Nov 18, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

tough one in Minnesota and going to San Diego

CB85......Collaros for Heisman

by TennBengalfan on Nov 18, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Of note

The worst loss in th AFC North (excluding Cleveland) is Pittsburgh’s loss to Chicago. Every other loss is to a team with a winning record, so lets not assume that Pittsburgh is going to win out. I think that Baltimore can win their next 2 (Home for Indy and PIT), if they can dictate the game like they did to Denver.

by jim0ijk on Nov 18, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t think it will be Minnesota. We match up really well against them…plus I’m going to be in the Metrodome for that game, so we better not lose.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Nov 20, 2009 12:56 AM EST up reply actions

The Patriots run the table, including on the road against New Orleans and Houston? Bold call.

by Mr. X on Nov 19, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

Unless NO cleans its act up fast, New England will beat them by 20+.

by FriarBob on Nov 19, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions

The Saints are still unbeaten

The Rams were a trap game and they won it. The Patriots just lost for the third time, and will be playing the Saints on the road. The Pats might win, but no way it will be a blow out. I do agree if they beat the Saints they will probably go 13-3 because the rest of their schedule is lacking in stiff competition.

by St. Esiason on Nov 19, 2009 6:46 AM EST up reply actions

You haven’t been watching them the way I have. Remember who my two teams are? Or maybe you didn’t know. Trust me, the Saints are very good, but they are playing like crap right now. If they get their heads out of their butts there isn’t a team in the league, even the Bengals, they can’t beat. But if they keep playing the way they have been (and/or keep piling up more critical injuries) they definitely won’t.

But I’m still hoping for Saints-Bengals in the SB. That would just rule. I wouldn’t truly care who won, since one of my teams would have to by default.

by FriarBob on Nov 19, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

A House Divided Against Itself...

Watching your two favorite teams fight it out in the Super Bowl would be greatly terrible, or terribly great (depending on how you looked at it). One of your teams would definitely win, but the other team would lose in heartbreak, meaning that you wouldn’t really be able to enjoy that kind of a win….Sort of bittersweet.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Nov 20, 2009 1:03 AM EST up reply actions

Prematurely Nervous

Does anybody remember 2005 ? ARGHHHHHH!!!!! Anything but that.

by laibach on Nov 18, 2009 8:38 PM EST reply actions

Pretty sure everybody remembers that dark spot in history. :-/

One of the worst days of my life as a sports fan ever.

by Craig Conrad on Nov 18, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions

Worst. Period.

Dark indeed !!! Besides the obvious, we weren’t sure if Carson would ever be the same again. Worse than losing our two Super Bowls…IMHO…All this playoff speculation has me on edge.

by laibach on Nov 19, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions

We're going to the playoffs

and I see us at 12-4. The Steelers will lose at least one against the Ravens.

I want a rematch in the playoffs against Denver as we should soundly thrash them for their win at the begninning of the season.

Then onto Indy for the AFC playoff championship to decide who goes to the Superbowl.

by UpStateMike on Nov 19, 2009 5:48 AM EST reply actions

Denver has derailed

I’d be surprised if they even make the playoffs now with Orton hurt. They were pretenders and got lucky to go 6-0. Sure they have a relatively easier schedule with the Chiefs twice and the Raiders once, but I could see them losing one to the Chiefs, they always seem to. Throw in games against the Giants, Eagles, Colts and Chargers and they could go 9-7 or even 8-8. It’d be nice to play them in the Playoffs though, because we’d could beat them much easier than San Diego.

by St. Esiason on Nov 19, 2009 6:40 AM EST up reply actions