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Six-Pack of Hu-Dey: Bengals passing game, Cedric Benson's expected return

Perhaps expectations for Laveranues Coles were misplaced. When the Bengals signed wide receiver Laveranues Coles to a $28 million contract soon after losing out on the T.J. "ain't no way I'm staying in poor ass Cincinnati" Houshmandzadeh puppet show, we tried to justify that signing Coles was sensible because, while he brought different attributes to the table, the Bengals offense wouldn't miss that much. Boy, we nailed that one like Homer Simpson reroofing his house.

Through 11 games this season, Coles has recorded only 31 receptions for 379 yards receiving and three receiving touchdowns. At this pace, he'll finish the season with 45 receptions for 551 yards receiving. This would be, by far, his worst 16-game season in his career (he missed four games in 2007 and three games in 2000). Of the 61 times Carson Palmer has thrown to Coles, the 31-year old wide receiver has caught only 51% of his passes, of at least six being drops. And during the team's 16-7 loss win over Cleveland, Coles caught two of nine passes thrown his way.

Now, let's also be fair. Palmer hasn't been the most accurate passer -- especially under pressure where his completion rates dip considerably to under 54%. Cincinnati has changed philosophy to a much more aggressive rushing offense, reflective of Palmer's and Chad Ochocinco's season statistics compared to their 16-game averages.

However, the notable issue is cost over production. When Coles signed his $28 million deal earlier this year, we broke it down. His base salary this year is a lowly $1.9 million. That number significantly jumps in 2010 ($4.65 million), 2011 and 2012 ($6.4 million respectively). Furthermore, a majority of Coles' guaranteed money was reportedly earned already in 2009, making us conclude at the time that his four-year deal could be viewed as a one-year deal with three option seasons.

Cincinnati will have to answer the question if Coles is worth having on the roster next year, after a projected 45-reception season, with an increasing base pay, or if the Bengals will finally start showcasing some of their younger talent in Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson and Maurice Purify.

Can the Bengals finish the Trilogy of Terrible Teams with a winning record? The loss to the Oakland Raiders, while heartbreaking, wasn't totally unexpected. Having watched these Bengals for so long, and the NFL for that matter, games in which an underdog beats a heavy favorite is completely within the realm of possibility. Oh, and the Bengals have never won in Oakland and sport a .257 winning percentage when playing games in California. Hey, it happens. Even Ohio State University lost to Purdue. In 2005, the Cincinnati Bengals were 11-3 heading to Buffalo, only to lose by ten points to the 5-11 Bills. Hey, it happens.

Even though some called it the biggest loss of the season, I maintained that losing to Oakland was a mulligan. I believe it still. The entire division lost that weekend, including Pittsburgh to their own 2-7 opponent. However, the thing about mulligans in the NFL is that you only get one. While the score never reflected it, the Bengals dominated the Cleveland Browns the following week.

This week, the Bengals play host to the 2-9 Detroit Lions. If the Bengals lose Sunday, in one of the few potential trap games left this season, they'll lose all momentum at a very inopportune time with the Vikings and Chargers on deck. Now, this is the pessimistic old Bengals fan point of view where anyone associated with the Cincinnati Bengals would do something disastrous; like how a sneeze can set up a series of events that entire nations declare war on each other. With a win over Detroit and then two losses against the Chargers and Vikings, the Bengals will at least hold the division lead by way of tie-breakers if the sinking Steelers and Ravens win their next two. Win the games you're suppose to win.

Starting Cedric Benson against Detroit is the right choice. With the Lions coming into town this weekend, it's a sound decision to bring Cedric Benson back into the fold. But slowly. Detroit ranks 19th against the rush allowing 112.9 yards per game, a 4.3 yards-per-rush average and 13 20-yard rushing plays allowed, which is only two away from Oakland's league leading 15. Detroit will help Benson get his legs under him again, but more importantly, the team could rotate backs this weekend to ease Benson back.

After Detroit, the Bengals will play another critical stretch of games in Minnesota and in San Diego. Minnesota sports the league's second best rush defense and the Bengals are currently battling the Chargers for the second seed in the AFC. If Benson gets sporadic work against the Lions, he'll start getting into the offense's rhythm, to prepare for the Vikings, as well as be nasty once again against the Chargers.

Speaking of which. Is it time to air out the football against the Lions? Cincinnati has rushed the football 40 times or more in three games this year (Chicago, Oakland, Cleveland II). In two of those games, the Bengals averaged 4.7 yards rushing or more and won by at least two possessions, dominating the time of possession. Four times this year the Bengals rushed the football less than 30 times; they lost to Denver and Houston, beat the Steelers twice by less than a touchdown. As written above, the Detroit Lions sport a middle-of-the-road rushing defense.

On the other hand, Detroit has the league's worst passing defense, allowing 281.4 yards passing a game, an opposing quarterback rating of 111.8, a 70.5 completion percentage allowed, 13 passes of 40 yards or more and an average of 8.2 yards allowed per pass.

Chad Ochocinco jokingly said, "We would like to throw the ball 50 times." It's not egotism playing a factor. I think he knows what we know. The Detroit Lions can't stop the pass.

Where is Palmer's deep pass accuracy? Even though we think that the Bengals should air it out against the Lions, there is some general concern that Palmer's accuracy on the deep pass isn't what it used to be. For example, when passing beyond 20 yards, Palmer has completed six of 23 passes for 266 yards. More importantly, that's where three of his eight interceptions have come from.

An argument could be made that Palmer just doesn't have time to throw it deep. That's certainly been true the past two weeks. Another argument could be made that the Bengals simply don't have that deep threat outside of Chad Ochocinco, who is double covered and smothered on nearly every play.

Still, if the Bengals are going to go back to their old school explosive offense, they'll need Palmer to make better throws down field. Actually, the Bengals will just need to make more throws down field. Only 23 passes beyond 20 yards? That's surprising.

Note: five of Palmer's eight picks have come when he throws to his right.

How could Tennessee factor into the Bengals playoff race? The Bengals still hold the second seed for the playoffs with five games to go. The San Diego Chargers have the same record as Cincinnati, but are on the losing end of a tie-breaker that gives Cincinnati the edge. If we look at both team's remaining schedule, you'll see several similarities. Each team faces three teams with a losing record, one team with a winning record and each other. The Titans play a Wild Card in this because while they're 5-6, they're also on a five-game winning streak and could present the biggest problem for San Diego -- other than Cincinnati of course.

Here's a side-by-side comparison of the remaining games with the Bengals and Chargers.

Week Bengals Record Chargers Record
13 Detroit 2-9 @ Cleveland 1-10
14 @ Minnesota 10-1 @ Dallas 8-3
15 @ San Diego 8-3 Cincinnati 8-3
16 Kansas City 3-8 @ Tennessee 5-6
17 @ NY Jets 5-6 Washington 3-8

All stats provided by ProFootballFocus.com, Stats, Inc. and NFL.com. If you have a topic you'd like explored, email me.

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Do you think Palmer’s elbow injury from last year is the reason for his accuracy issues (I don’t have the stats and know this issue is subject to a lot of factors)? But I get the funny feeling that something is just not “right” with Palmer and his mechanics. While he has been doing a great job in “managing” the game, I think the Bengals fans (including myself) want more and expect more from Palmer.

Should we lower our expectations of him, which would allow the Bengals fans (including myself) to entirely/fully enjoy the season so far.

Your thoughts?

by sgiridharan on Dec 2, 2009 1:53 PM EST reply actions  

I think the problem has been pass protection. Palmer has been a little jumpy in the pocket and when he feels pressure he loses accuracy (like any other QB would).

I think we’re getting pretty close to seeing our #1 draft pick start to see significant playing time.

This is our year!

by Carsonorbust on Dec 2, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

RE:

That was especially true the past two weeks.

Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.

by Josh Kirkendall on Dec 2, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

here's a question

Why couldn’t the same offensive line that kept Carson upright and clean against two of the most voracious pass rushes in the league- in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, cut the mustard against two of the most inferior? Cause that’s a little worrisome.

by IgnatiusJReilly on Dec 2, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions  

i’m pretty sure that evan mathis played against pitt and baltimore, whereas livings played in the last two games. that’s the only real difference i know of.

i'm going to go america all over your ass!

by Raging Clue on Dec 4, 2009 9:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Now let's be fair. Palmer hasn't been the most accurate passer?

What about all the times Palmer has hit him spot on and he drops the ball a pro WR should catch? I lost count of those balls in the Denver game. To say that Coles has been a disappointment would be an understatement for this Bengals fan. But he did make a good catch and run against the Browns and he hasn’t had any drops I can think of in the last few games. But he hasn’t exactly been explosive either.

by WhoDeyDerek on Dec 2, 2009 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

It's the same with any QB

Acuracy is directly proportional to the time he has in the pocket.

by featherman on Dec 2, 2009 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

Carson is a class act!!!!

I have been a Bengals fan since before many of you have been born!! I live and die by this team!!! Carson is by far my favorite player,and win or lose I believe that he is what is
what the NFL truly stands for!!! Heart,devotion,and integrity!! Tell Tiger Woods that he needs to take a lesson from Carson Palmer
KIP

by bumbles64 on Dec 2, 2009 2:14 PM EST reply actions  

3 of his 8 interceptions were deep throws!?

In your article you state that 3 of 8 of Palmer’s picks were the deep ball. You failed to mention that 2 of them were hail maries at the end of a game, i.e. Raiders and Broncos or Texans. Those were interceptions that really shouldn’t count against him.

by DonMegga on Dec 2, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

RE:

Well, that was in response to his over all efficiency throwing deep. You’re right about the interceptions. But six of 23 on passes 20 yards or more?

Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.

by Josh Kirkendall on Dec 2, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Oops
And during the team’s 16-7 loss to Cleveland, Coles caught two of nine passes thrown his way.

We beat them Browns.

by Heywood on Dec 2, 2009 4:29 PM EST reply actions  

I think Carson's accuracy is more due to teams not allowing the deep throw

No NFL QB is accurate throwing into double coverage no matter where on the field. When will we fans realize that the deep ball is so vastly overrated?

It’s like this:
Teams would rather the Bengals beat them running the ball than beat them with the vertical passing game. Opposing secondaries sacrifice large areas of the field open to the run for deeper coverage downfield. It’s been happening since 2006 and that’s why the Bengals hav e shifted in philosophy. And guess what? It’s working.

I know some say you have to go depp occasionally to “mix it up” but throwing deep just for the hell of it only leads to picks and incompletions. I’d rather get yards on every play, than settle with nothing in order to potentially trick the defense later in the game.

Also, I think Carson has consistently underthrown receivers on the deep ball since his knee injury in the PLayoffs.

B. Clifton Burke

by Mojokong on Dec 2, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions  

except for that last sentence, i agree with everything you just said. i’ve never seen safeties playing as deep as they do against us in every game this season. you don’t force the deep ball just because you really want to, like some spoiled punk. you adjust, and that’s where they’ve excelled this year; if you don’t think they’ve excelled this year, let me remind you that this team is 8-3, with most of those wins coming against teams with winning records. in 2005, at 8-3, i think there might’ve been one or two wins against teams with winning records.

i'm going to go america all over your ass!

by Raging Clue on Dec 4, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Minnie and SD should be good tests

The others are wins

Share the carries and keep Ced Carson and 85 healthy

.. and enjoy the pimpin ride !

by WarWolf on Dec 2, 2009 7:22 PM EST reply actions  

As long as they beat the Lions, Chiefs, and Jets...

The Minny game doesn’t really matter. Take care of the 3 teams they need to take care of and beat the Chargers, and all will be well.

Minnesota should be a good test though, will be interesting to see how they approach it. They’ve got some run stuffers up there, ranked #2 in the league.
However, they haven’t played a top 10 rushing team yet, and when they played #12 St. Louis they gave up 122 yards on 30 carries, 81 yards on 18 carries to #14 Baltimore, and in two games against #11 GB gave up a combined 182 yards on 36 carries.
So really teams w/ mediocre running games have averaged more than 4 yards a carry against them, teams just haven’t been able to stick w/ it or make a commitment to it.

by Grizzlyfox on Dec 2, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Coles' numbers would be a lot better.....

….if he didnt drop every other pass Carson threw him…..

First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...

by btcoop71 on Dec 3, 2009 8:39 AM EST reply actions  

2 Reasons Why Coles is Worth it

1) Running game — look at any 10+ yrd run and chances are you see Coles cracking back in to open the edge or blocking his guy 15 yrd downfield. He has been an absolutely underrated part of the running game success & it’s obviously rubbed off on Chad. Did you see Chad holding that block against the browns to let LJ make the edge, when did he ever do that before? For years Marvin was talking about how the receivers needed to do more in the running game, and he hasn’t said it once this year.

2) Locker room — I don’t think there is any question now that a lot of the veiled comments that Marvin was making in the past about people not just doing their jobs were aimed at TJ. That also rubbed off on Chad and I think now that TJ was the cancer that led directly to Chad’s lost year. Coles has been a tremendous veteran that has come in as a stabalizer and really let Chad be the happy Chad again.

I think everything he is doing is totally worth it, and I would expect more things out of the passing game late (ie postseason) and next year.

by swebbIL on Dec 3, 2009 12:02 PM EST reply actions  

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