Passing wins championships?
by FriarBob on Dec 3, 2009 2:12 PM EST
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PrintObviously this has not been historically accurate. Indeed, many times it has very much NOT been the case. Ravens in 2000 are a blatant case in point.
But on the other hand, if Ben hadn't been a much better passer last year than he had ever been before, there is no chance in hell they even make the playoffs. Much less win the SB. Oh and their opponent for the "big game"? No running game at all until the playoffs. Both teams were pass first, and blatantly so, the reason Pitt won is they at least had some defense and Arizona had none.
So with that in mind, I turn you over to a nice article on NFL.com from Pat Kirwan. Here is a taste:
Passing wins championships?
"Run the ball and play defense if you want to win a championship." It's an old coaching expression ... perhaps the emphasis should be on "old."
The NFL has turned into a passing league, and anyone who doubts it should check out the facts. Currently, the top five defenses in the NFL are a combined 31-24; the top five offenses are 47-8. As for running the ball, the top five rushing teams are 30-25; the top five passing teams are 41-14. The message, this season at least, is build up your offense and throw the ball.
I discussed these findings with one former NFL head coach who has a Super Bowl ring. He said the numbers will be more meaningful if they hold up at season's end, but right now, he added, it looks like teams can still make the playoffs with a strong defense and a run game but they will not win a championship.
If you're still not sure you buy into the modern game, check this out: Teams with at least 20 touchdown passes this season have a combined record of 58-19; teams averaging at least 150 rushing yards a game are 25-30.
I would also like to point out that the 25-30 stats are badly skewed by the fact that the Saints run for 150.5 YPG. If you bump the threshold to 151 YPG, the records plummet to 14-30. Running teams, welcome to loserville, population you and a few close friends.
So for all of you who think that Marvin is a genius for finally running the ball and we don't need Carson to be able to throw the ball, think again. Maybe we get away with it this year. Maybe even a few more years. But the league has already changed some, and it will continue to change more. There will come a day when that recipe is nothing more than warp speed to a top 10 pick.
It's not remotely that we don't need a running game and we need to go back to passing every other play. The problem is that we need BOTH running AND passing to work. And we don't, at present, have that. And we need to have an OC with the brains to figure out ways to make both work in every (or nearly every) single game. We don't have that at the moment either.
I'm delighted the Bengals are (almost certainly) going to the playoffs. But unless Brat has been a TON more devious than any of us are truly willing to give him credit for, get ready for a rapid exit. Because odds are very good we'll get one.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.
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Passing wins chanpionships
I am hoping the Bengals have been running rather than passing against Oakland, Cleveland and probably Detroit because they can and figure they can win doing it while hiding the passing game until needed at Minnesota.
I know this is a stretch of one’s imagination but what other good explanation is there for not passing the ball more often?
one stat i like is that the no. 1 passing ranked team has never won the Superbowl… tells you something about the importance of defence and the running game.
Yea but a # 20 ranked passing team doesnt win a lot of Superbowls either.. Its just not realistic to think you can turn the switch on a passing game in the NFL.. The Bengals need to give some new blood a try at Wideout or TE with either who they got or someone off the streets. Its not a fluke their passing O has suffered since Henry went out. We have a great Qb and Chad. Then its Coles, Caldwell and Purfy who are all the same guy, 15yd max routes..We need to try somethinng hell anything to stretch the field ( simpson) and or give Palmer a big coffman like target in the redzone.. A running game is nice but we have the current longest streak of RB carries without a TD in the NFL…. I hope this week we see a change it would be a shame not to help this great D out this year
they turned it on pretty well
against chicago
and at the end of the game against baltimore.
and against green bay.
They did against Baltimore?? Chicago is the worst D team in football.. Oh by the way how many of those games did Purify play in and how many did Henry?
Your lost son
Yeah
The first game against the ravens when they drove down the field and won it in the last 20 seconds.
And who said anything about purify? He’s a special teams guy. And a good one at that.
But I forgot, you’re an NFL statistician and no one knows more than you.
by brandone on Dec 4, 2009 4:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah
The first game against the ravens when they drove down the field and won it in the last 20 seconds.
And who said anything about purify? He’s a special teams guy. And a good one at that.
But I forgot, you’re an NFL statistician and no one knows more than you.
by brandone on Dec 4, 2009 4:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Last year the Steelers were ranked 17th in Passing offense.
The year before that the Giants were 21st in Passing offense.
The year before that the Colts were the 3rd ranked passing offense.
The year before that the Steelers had the 24th ranked passing offense.
The year before that the Patriots had the 11th ranked passing offense.
The moral of this story is that only one SuperBowl winning team in the last 5 years has had a top ten passing offense, and only two of them cracked the top half of the league.
I just though some stats would be helpful for this conversation.
This is our year!
Bengle Boy
Own up… You just got served! Carsonorbusts stats win. Your stats are for the regular season. For the record though, I’m with you on finding another guy to stretch the field, I just don’t share your view that our passing game as is is going to hinder us… Here are some more stats for you courtesy of Geoff Hobson.
“The Bengals are currently ranked seventh in NFL rushing, 21st in passing and 17th total for 7-21-17. On defense they are ranked third against the run, 16th against the pass and sixth total for 3-16-6. They average 21 points per game and allow 15.8.
Here are the corresponding numbers of this decade’s Super Bowl champs:
" 2000 Ravens: 5-22-16 on offense; 1-8-2 on defense; 20.8 points for, 10.3 against.
" 2001 Patriots: 13-22-19 on offense; 19-24-24 on defense; 23.1-17.0
" 2002 Bucs: 24-15-27 on offense; T5-1-1 on defense; 21.6-12.3
" 2003 Patriots: 27-9-17 on offense; 4-15-7 on defense; 21.8-14.9
" 2004 Patriots: 7-11-7 on offense; 6-17-9 on defense; 27.3 -16.3
" 2005 Steelers: 5-24-T15 on offense; 3-16-4 on defense; 24.3 –16.1
" 2006 Colts: 18-2-3 on offense; 32-2-21 on defense; 26.7-22.5
" 2007 Giants: 4-21-16 on offense; 8-11-7 on defense; 23.3-22.0
" 2008 Steelers: 23-17-22 on offense; 2-1-1 on defense; 21.7-14.5
" 2009 Bengals: 7-21-17 on offense; 3-16-6 on defense; 21.0-15.8"
Let me ask you in all of these stats did you take in account the record setting year offenses are having right now. We have three of the best in the AFC in San Diego, Indy, and New England. Im not even going to get into the ridculous passing games in the NFC. Steve Young who i actually respect said it after the Monday night game that this is a year when you will have to be able to put up big passing yards somewhere along the line in the playoffs to win..Im just scared that stubborn ass Bratkowski is going to keep activating guys becuase they can block and then not have the passing weapons in place when we are going to need them. We really have only had to come from behind once against Houstion and couldnt do it. I am only so passionate because i think we are real close to somehting special and our d is unreal.. I also think you have Carson Palmer and you HAVE to get him more involved
Ok
And how well did the record setting offense of the patriots do in their 18-1 season. Or the colts for years before that? San Diego has had a killer offense for years and where has it gotten them? And the cardinals last year? Yep. Defense wins championships. Plain and simple.
by brandone on Dec 4, 2009 10:50 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
??? How well did it do for Arizona or New England.. it got them a last second miracle away from winning the Superbowl and actually in it… I would love our Running game more if it actually produced TD’s. We have the current streak for most carries by RB’s on a team without a TD.. You think the lack of a passing game might have something to do with that.. Or maybe its that we have great special teams players and blockers as passing weapons in the redzone instead of some height and abilty to get open
only had to come from behind once? have you watched any games at all this season? or heard about any games at all this season? sorry, but that statement robbed you of any credibility you might have had.
i'm going to go america all over your ass!
Hey Raging cluless. Its obvious that I meant down more then a TD in the second half.. Many of our last second comebacks have been in games we had the lead in the second half.
Scoring to win a late Td to win a slugfest is different then trying to come back on a team that has a good O and hasbulit a nice lead… If you think we could go down 21 to Houston like Indy did and come back under the current Bratkowskii plan your smoking the good stuff.. Im just thankful our D has prevented teams from getting out ahead of us..
No, it wasn't obvious.
If you want to state your point, state it. If you want to disagree with others, feel free. But don’t talk down to the rest of us. We’re all Bengals fans here, let’s treat each other with some respect.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
zjiff
read his comment to me first??? and then pee standing up.. other then that i love all my fellow bengals fans
13 points against the steelers. that was the comeback. that is more than a touchdown; in fact, it’s two touchdowns. the steelers are a better team than the texans. so, yeah, based on historical precedent, i’d say our team can come back from a significant margin and perform when it matters.
i'm going to go america all over your ass!
how many championships have the saints won?
…the same number as the pass first bengals during the period 2005-2007. Zero.
Its also a bit of a stretch to say the steelers won last years super bowl because of their passing game
They had the top defense in the league (not “some” defense) and in that game the key play was an interception returned for a TD. I am sure James harrison can explain it to you once he catches his breath.
This year their offense is more pas happy and their D has slipped a bit and their playoff hopes havd slipped as well.
I would question some of the stats well. Defensive stats, particularly yardage, can be deceptive because teams that are ahead most of the game may give up lots of yards late to kill the clock and protect a lead.Also good defenses may give up lots of points and yards because they are on the field all the time do to poor offense. (see bengals 2008)
Obviously one shoots for a defense that can shut people out and an offense that can put up 40 pts a game. For years the bengals have prioritized offense with their draft picks and payroll decisions. The tide has turned in the past 5 years. The good news is we still have a top notch.QB and good recievers. Our line is still a project-but its showing improvement- so there is no reason to think the bengals have abandoned a strong passing game but are simply retooling it. Whether or not we see the dividends in the form of a super bowl this year I don’t know. But I do think the bengals are moving in the right direction. Strong defense solid running game and a talented veteran QB with lots of options.
Hopefully we play the saints in the super bowl. If we do my prediction. Bengals 25 (1 defensive TD and 6 field goals) Saints 21. (3 passing TDs)
by goffchile on Dec 3, 2009 6:03 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Snicker. Willie parker was the top rusher in the super bowl with 53 — yes FIFTY THREE — yards. The only rushing TD in the entire game? A guy who ran twice for 3 - yes NEGATIVE THREE — yards in total. So the running game sure as hell didn’t win it for them. Their defense helped some, yes, but it got its butt whooped in the fourth quarter. Without Ben passing all over a complete joke of a Card defense in the fourth, they would have lost. So passing very much DID play a HUGE part in them winning that game.
Perhaps passing may not have solely won the SB for the Steelers, but without it they wouldn’t have made it at all. Or need I remind you that in the championship weekend that the Raven’s McGahee outrushed the ENTIRE Steeler TEAM, and yet they still lost. Or need I remind you that they “beat” the Ravens on that controversial pass a few weeks earlier, without which the Ravens would have been the divisional champs and the Titans would have kicked Pitts butt in the divisional round.
And by the way, the article wasn’t about the Saints. It was about the Colts, the Saints, AND the Vikings. All of which together are a combined 32-1. Compared to the teams rushing for 151 or more, who are a combined 14-30. Hmm. Oh and during that 2005-2007 period, the Bengals made the playoffs once. The Colts made it all three years, and won the SB one of them. All of which were years they were pass first as well.
Oh and the Saints have have 3.5 times as many defensive TDs as we do. There goes THAT idea.
The entire point of the article was that the league has changed. It has not FULLY become where the pass is ultimate and the run is useless. Nor is it likely to ever do so. But a team that cannot pass its way out of a wet paper bag is going nowhere, no matter how many wins it may get over average teams the rest of the year. And yes, not one of our wins is a truly quality win. Even Green Bay we only barely pulled it out against a team in pure chaos at that point. Baltimore and Pitt only count as semi-quality, but neither of them are qualified for the playoffs at this point. And the Texans, who can’t beat any quality teams themselves, whipped our butts.
If we do make the super bowl, it will be a miracle. Plain and simple.
Friar Please
You forgot to point out that in 2008, the Cardinals had the #2 ranked passing offense, and in 2007, the New England Patriots had the #1 passing offense – Both of which lost out to teams (the Steelers and the Giants) that had the #1 and the #7 ranked defenses in the league in their respective years. Defense still wins championships. Nothing has changed that much.
Seriously though, I love the debate. I wish the Bengals passing game would start showing a pulse as well, but maybe we should stop thinking of it as a chance to “boo” our offense, and instead think of it as added opportunity to cheer on our defense! Just trying to see the glass half full here.
This is our year!
No I didn’t forget at all. I just pointed out — accurately — that the Steeler passing game was a KEY component of winning any of those three key games along their path to rings.
Nobody — not the original article, not myself, not anybody with a brain — is trying to say that passing is all that matters and running and defense are worthless. They ALL are important. Which includes, by definition, passing as well That’s all I’ve said from the get go. And that’s all I’ve said on every other thread when I complained about our offense. We need both running and passing.
In fact, your argument reinforces mine all the more. I’m calling for BALANCE. We don’t have that right now. The teams that won the SB all had that. They had good running games, good — or at least decent — passing games, and good defense as well. They had BALANCE. We don’t.
My point is that statistically speaking, we have the same amount of balance as most of the Super Bowl teams have had in the past ten years. I’m not making any predictions, I’m just pointing that out. And for the record, I agree with you on the point that we need balance on our team and that against tougher competition we are going to have to throw the ball more.
Also, I should point out that the one game this year where our passing attempts significantly outnumbered our running attempts (35-17 to be exact) was the game against Houston. Also our first game against Cleveland where we struggled, we had 44 pass attempts to 30 rush attempts.
This is our year!
if passing won the 2008 super bowl
….then the record books must be wrong. Arizona out threw Pittsburgh by over 100 yards and therefore should crowned super bowl champs.
Its hyperbolic to say the entire league has changed regarding what it takes to win a championship based on a sample size of one season that isn’t over and no champion has yet to be crowned.
by goffchile on Dec 4, 2009 8:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, but the Cards
didn’t have that balance of run and pass. Basically they had pass, pass and more passing. That is why they lost. As FriarBob said you need that BALANCE and the Bengals don’t have that right now. Will they obtain it, we’ll see! All good teams that win the SB (usually) have that BALANCE. There are some very little exceptions though. We just need the Football Gods to shine a little light on Simpson, Chase of Purify.
Like I said above, statistically speaking, we have the same amount of balance as most of the Super Bowl teams of the past 10 years. That’s not a prediction, it’s just an observation.
This is our year!
We have the same amount of balance as most of the SB TEAMS, statistically?
Do you mean the winners or both teams in the recent 10 years of the SB’s. B/c, if you recall, the losers of the SB’s didn’t have balance all year long. Cards were a passing team all year, Patriots were passing all year when they lost the SB, but were more balanced when they won the SB, at the end of thier seasons. Panthers were passing all year, Raiders were pass happy all year and with the exception of Chicago, they were a little more balanced and lost. The Ravens were running with a smile all year long and won. The Colts were passing to all the stud WR’s and TE they had on that team . So my point is, that towards the end of the year, in the post season, the better teams became more balanced to win the damn thing or the teams that didn’t, lost it. The Bengals run the ball 45 times and pass 15-18 times a game. Is that BALANCED? No!! I didn’t think so. Like I said, I guess we will see If Brat will adjust and go back to being Balanced. God, did i just say Brat and adjust in the same sentence too? I’m sorry guys my apologies. It’s just a fantasy so leave me alone. LOL
Stop wishing for passing game and just wish for wins.
We’ve won games, and if we continue to win games, then who the fuck cares if we run the ball 60 times and pass the ball once. We’re finding ways to win games and that’s all that matters. I don’t care what anyone says, we’re not going to get blown out in any game we play this season. So we don’t have to air it out like other years because we are controlling the clock and playing D. Don’t be scared little tigers.
If you don't live like you wanna, you live like you shouldn't
Pass or Run
Running game chews up time. If you are confident that you will always pick up the first down, then by all means run with the ball. On average, it will take 5-8 minutes to march down the field and run an average of 4-6 first down series to score a TD. If your team does not have defense, then the other team will be able to do a quick strike and there is nothing more demoralising than allowing the other team to score in less than 1-2 minutes, a long ball through the air for a TD. You call the plays that best suit the players that you have on the team. It is a luxury when you have a QB that can throw the long ball, WR that can catch them and RB that can pound the ground game. Balanced attack and a tough defense always win games.
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