Breaking down the Bengals first-round picks since 1990

by Kirkendall on Mar 30, 2009 11:21 AM EDT in NFL Draft Comment 12 comments

In his latest ten-pack, Mike Florio ranks the top-ten biggest first-round busts in the last twenty years. You know that there's going to be Bengals players are there, don't you? But how many? Peter Warrick, David Klingler, Akili Smith.

Here's a look at all the Bengals first-round picks since 1990.

Season	Player	Notes
2008	Keith Rivers	Recorded 50 tackles through seven starts before having season ended with a broken jaw.
2007	Leon Hall	In two seasons, recorded eight interceptions
2006	Johnathan Joseph	Recorded five interceptions three seasons in which he's played 39 games (30 starts). Returned a touchdown in 2008.
2005	David Pollack	Recorded 28 tackles during his rookie season, starting five of 14 games played. Finished with 4.5 sacks before neck injury ended his playing career.
2004	Chris Perry	Missed significant time in three of five seasons with Cincinnati. Recorded 83 receptions, 474 yards receiving and 606 yards rushing. Four career touchdowns (rushing and receiving).
2003	Carson Palmer	God of the Golden Arms. In five seasons, recorded 107 touchdowns and 67 interceptions and 15,630 yards passing.
2002	Levi Jones	Started at left tackle in 89 of 94 games played for seven seasons.
2001	Justin Smith	Recorded 43.5 sacks in seven seasons with the Bengals.
2000	Peter Warrick	Recorded 264 receptions in five seasons with the Bengals for 2,811 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns.
1999	Akili Smith	Four seasons in the NFL, all with Cincinnati. Recorded five career touchdowns, 13 career interceptions and sacked 59 times (36 times in 2000)
1998	Takeo Spikes	Recorded 564 tackles in five seasons with the Bengals, including 13 sacks and five interceptions.
1998	Brian Simmons	Recorded 715 tackles in nine seasons with Cincinnati, including 11 interceptions and 23 sacks.
1997	Reinard Wilson	Recorded 24 sacks in six seasons with Cincinnati.
1996	Willie Anderson	Four-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro player.
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Recorded 747 yards rushing in four seasons with Cincinnati, missing his first season due to a major knee injury. Recorded 15 touchdowns in 1996 and 1997 combined.
1994	Dan Wilkinson	Four seasons in Cincinnati. Registered 25 sacks and kind of left on bad terms.
1993	John Copeland	Eight seasons in Cincinnati. Registered 24 sacks, including a season-high 9.0 in 1995.
1992	David Klingler	Four seasons in Cincinnati. Threw 16 touchdowns and 22 interceptions, and sacked 87 times (or 3.6 times per-game started).
1991	Alfred Williams	Four seasons in Cincinnati. Registered 26.5 sacks, including 10 in 1992 and 9.5 in 1994.
1990	James Francis	Nine seasons with Cincinnati. Registered 33.0 sacks, including a season-high eight sacks his rookie season.

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Comparisons

I would like to see how this compares with other teams since 1st rounders are about a 50-50 boom or bust.

by smoormandiddy on Mar 30, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1st rounders are not a 50-50 boom or bust

But, since you asked, here’s the Ravens 1st rounders
1996: Jon Ogden
1996: Ray Lewis
1997: Peter Boulware
1998: Duane Starks
1999: Chris McCallister
2000: Jamal Lewis
2000: Travis Taylor
2001: Todd Heap
2002: Ed Reed
2003: Terrell Suggs
2003: Kyle Boller
2005: Mark Clayton
2006: Haloti Ngata
2007: Ben Grubbs
2008: Joe Flacco

Of these 15, Ogden, R. Lewis, Boulware, McCallister, J. Lewis, Heap, Reed, Suggs have all made at least one Pro-Bowl and generally been considered very successful draft picks. In addition, Ben Grubbs has started 29 regular season games in his first two season and is generally well liked (it’s hard to measure a guard), Haloti Ngata is considered one of the best players in the NFL at his position and likely to make the Pro Bowl as his name gets better known, and Joe Flacco of course is also considered a definite draft success. That’s 11 of 15 players who I’d generally peg as unqualified successes.

Duane Starks was a very solid player before he left for free agency, got injured, and imploded. Never great, but solid. Mark Clayton is a mediocre starter, but a starter or slot receiver nonetheless, and certainly not a full out bust. 2 qualified successes.

That leaves Kyle Boller and Travis Taylor as the two players generally considered to be failed draft choices.

by math_geek on Mar 30, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good: 5+ yr starter, at least 1 Pro-bowl
Average: career starter
Bust: starting caliber less than 3 years

Good: Palmer, Anderson
Average: Rivers, Hall, Joseph, J. Smith, Spikes, Simmons, Francis
Bust: Pollack, Perry, Jones, Warrick, A. Smith, Wilson, Wilkinson, Carter, Copeland, Klingler, A. Williams

so that’s 9/20 if you are being generous, and the book is really still out on Rivers, Hall and Joseph. Injury caused some of the failures, but still…

by R.F. Mehl on Mar 30, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Spikes has been to the Pro-Bowl twice, I know it was while with the Bills but if your going to evaluate based on your criteria I think you put Spikes as Good based on his 5+ yrs as a starter and pro-bowls. Pollack might be a bust but thats due to a freak injury. J-Jo, Hall and Rivers could be huge picks by as early as next year if they stay healthy.

"yeah so basically you got a qb with a bum elbow and ocho who is half spanish half retarded and thats it on offense eh"

- Wally, Best Friend/Giants Fan

by Ocho85 on Mar 30, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AFC North

I’m guessing the Pittsburgh’s list is as impressive and Cleveland’s looks like ours. This really put things into perspective as to why Pittsburgh and Baltimore aalmost always fighting for the top while we are stuck in the cellar with Cleveland. At least the more recent picks show much more promise than the dreaded mid 90’s picks.

The only one that really stings is Pollack. We just started seeing how great this guy was. His injury threw a lot off. We would not have franchised J.Smith if he he did not get hurt. The Odom pick up would not exist either.

by smoormandiddy on Mar 30, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"The only one that really stings is Pollack"

On a different note, I would say Odell too. That dude could play.

Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.

by Kirkendall on Mar 30, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thurman

That combo was going to make our defense huge. I only left Thurman out b/c I wanted to stick with the 1st rounders. If you’ve ever played Madden 07 the guy is a beast. That has to show what the NFL thought of him after 1 season.

by smoormandiddy on Mar 30, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More Breakdowns

Math geek is right…1st round picks AREN’T boom or bust. Want to know why the Steelers are always consistently good? …because they consistently draft talented players that fit nicely into their system. That and they rarely “take a swing, and miss” in the 1st round.

If you look at the 18 First Rd picks the Steelers made from 1990 to 2007 their success ratio is outstanding. Only 2 players of the crop (11) were "Failures", only 3 players were "Average", and 6 players were "Good" (33) while 7…yes…7 of their 18 First Rd. players chosen have earned "Excellent" grades. (39) Astonishingly, 72 of their 1st Rd picks have been “Good” to “Excellent” players.

The Bengals grades you ask?

30% "Failure" ratio during that span
20% of the players have been "Average"
40% have been “Good”
10% have been “Excellent”

The good side is that 50% have been "Good" or excellent players…the flip side though is that 50% have been “Average” to putrid…I mean, “Failures.” Maybe that’s what you thought when you said “50-50”, smoormandiddy. Regardless, 50-50 doesn’t cut it in the NFL.

Grading Scale:

Excellent (Pro Bowl, All Pro Player)
Good (Above average, good length with team….just not quite elite)
Average (not great, but not bad)
Failure (never panned out, regardless of ability or injury)

Steelers / Bengals

Yr. Player Grade

90 Eric Green Excellent
James Francis Good

91 Huey Richardson Failure
Alfred Williams Average

92 Leon Searcy Excellent
David Klingler Failure

93 Deon Figures Good
John Copeland Average *

94 Charles Johnson Average
Dan Wilkinson Failure

95 Mark Bruener Good
Ki-Jana Carter Failure

96 Jamaine Stephens Average
Willie Anderson Excellent

97 Chad Scott Good
Reinard Wilson Average *

98 Alan Faneca Excellent
Takeo Spikes Good **
Brian Simmons Good

99 Troy Edwards Failure
Akili Smith Failure

00 Plaxico Burress Average
Peter Warrick Average

01 Casey Hampton Excellent
Justin Smith Good

02 Kendall Simmons Good
Levi Jones Good

03 Troy Polamalu Excellent
Carson Palmer Excellent

04 B. Roethlisberger Excellent
Chris Perry Failure

05 Heath Miller Good
David Pollack Failure

06 Santonio Holmes Good
Jonathan Joseph Good #

07 Lawrence Timmons Good #
Leon Hall Good #

08 R. Mendenhall Average #
Keith Rivers Good #

by JohnCockToastin on Mar 30, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I’m not saying 50-50 is acceptable. It is just more of a generic stat they usually bring up around draft time. Few teams (like Pittsburgh) have that high of a success rating and that is why they are an annual playoff team. You can also see that in the very small amount of free agents that they have ever brought in. Teams will 50-50 or less grades are either terrible or use free agency to the max or both. The draft is what makes everything. Not just the first round but the whole thing.

by smoormandiddy on Mar 30, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More...

That didn’t post the way I thought it would, layout wise…and a lot of the percentage signs didn’t show up (in case you were wondering about some odd #’s)

Anyways…below is some other notes on the grades…

= Grade is skewed based on length of time spent in Cincinnati. Had the Bengals not been so disgustingly putrid, the player likely would have been cut long before he actually was…thus rendering him to a lesser grade.

= Spike likely would have been rated "Excellent" had he stayed in Cincinnati. 5 years and no pro bowls only warrants a grade of "Good."

= Jury is still out…these grades are very speculative in nature.

by JohnCockToastin on Mar 30, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Whole Draft

I have a breakdown of the Bengals (and Steelers) entire drafts spanning the past 10 yrs as well. Believe it or not, both teams’ overall draft grades are similar to their 1st rd grades.

by JohnCockToastin on Mar 30, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs