Lombardi: Perception that Chad Johnson is declining

by Josh Kirkendall on Apr 17, 2009 11:38 AM EDT in Analysis

In Jason Cole's latest, which examines players trades, compensation and all that jazz, he quotes Michael Lombardi regarding Chad Johnson:

“Do you think anybody is giving up a first and a third for [Cincinnati wide receiver] Chad Johnson now,” Lombardi said. “No, because the perception is that Chad is declining. Everybody looks at this numbers and says, ‘He only averaged 10 yards a catch and his longest was 25 yards last year’ and thinks he’s close to being done. They don’t look at the tape and find out that the guy is getting open still, the Bengals just couldn’t get him the ball for whatever reason."

Well, when you're open with right when the quarterback is running for his life (ala Ryan Fitzpatrick), it really doesn't mean much.

So why the perception?

“They don’t call a former coach who was on the Bengals staff last year and find out what was going on in practice and what was the team really able to do. That’s why they don’t really find out and then judge for themselves.”

The main point here is that there's a perception that he's declining. But since potential trade suitors can't get an accurate assessment of Chad's talents right now, and why the "Bengals just couldn't get him the ball", the perception remains the same. And since that perception doesn't seem likely to change, it'll be difficult to move Chad on the reported first and third round picks that the Bengals demand.

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All good points...

How about a trade between Arizona and Cincinnati, Bolden for Chad and a couple way back picks. Have to pay….but a good deal in the long run.

by Sloppygolf on Apr 17, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions

goog grief!

Are you serious? Chad and draft picks for Boldin? Plus the enormous contract Boldin will insist on. Chad is the better and more durable player. Moreover, Chad is only two years older than Boldin. It amazes me that anyone would consider trading 85 for that guy.

by blueridge624 on Apr 17, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

i would love this

but its so unlikely and thinking about it seems too good to be true

by nadfflictar on Apr 17, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

i think we as fans have the same perception

thats why we are willing to trade him for a 2nd round pick or worse. a couple weeks ago we heard that the eagles may be offering a 3rd and a 5th. and we heard some of our own fans screaming to trade Chad.
if Chad is still getting open, then lets keep him. He is still a top 10 WR in the league, and if we want to protect Palmer, then we need somebody who the Defense respects (Chad) besaus eits not Bensons, Coles or Utecht

by Joe Goodberry on Apr 17, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

Not to mention ...

People seem to forget he was playing hurt after a partial tear of his labrum.

by Heywood on Apr 17, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

If we trade him for junk picks now...

…we run the same risk as Oakland did. Randy Moss, anybody?

Chad knows that if he’s EVER going to get out of Cincinnati, he’s going to have to actually BE Chad at full throttle for a full season…which, if he does that, might actually lead to the Bengals winning enough games that he won’t want to leave, anyhow.

Hmm…

by TheWalrus1971 on Apr 17, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions

You can’t compare this to the Randy Moss deal. Sure Oakland traded him for almost nothing and he blew up in New England, BUT… would he have played that well if he stayed in Oakland? It doesn’t matter how good he will play somewhere else. If he doesn’t play for us we might as well get something for him before his contract is up.

by smoormandiddy on Apr 17, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

The T.O. leaving Philly argument.

Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.

by Josh Kirkendall on Apr 17, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Chad's decline is a self-fulfilling prophecy

Chad is 31 and hence in the declining years of his career, especially for a speedster. Unfortunately the problems with the line, new QB and his injury last year create the illusion that the decline has already started.

He will bounce back this year, injury notwithstanding but he’s already lost a lot of trade value so either we keep him and try and trade him next year when iirc the Bengals have a team option on his contract or you accept that you will get less value for him now and he most likely will rebound for 1-2 years.

I think he’s an injury risk and trading him last year was the best option for the team, there again that looks genius compared with what happened :)

by Squizza on Apr 17, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Puzzlement

What NFL personnel guys would reach the conclusion that Chad is over the hill without watching game tape or talking to his coaches? That is what Lombardi seems to be suggesting. I don’t buy it. I also scoff at the poster’s suggestion that the talent evaluators on other teams in need of a WR are unable to assess Chad’s on-field ability or to determine why his production was down last year. This is what they do for a living. A team with any interest in acquiring Chad will have already determined his trade value. If no other team will give value for him it must be because they are convinced he’s not worth anywhere near the asking price and NOT because they don’t know whether he is. Isn’t that more likely? At any rate, the Yahoo article doesn’t pass the smell test.

by blueridge624 on Apr 17, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions

Honestly, I don’t care if Chad goes elsewhere and puts up big numbers. Bully for him. I just don’t want him here. A second and a fourth would suffice or just one late first. Anything, really. I just don’t ever want to see him, hear him, or talk about him anymore.

by IgnatiusJReilly on Apr 17, 2009 6:58 PM EDT reply actions