Deja vu
by Carsonorbust on Jun 7, 2009 3:35 PM EDT
35 comments
I for one am a Bengal down to the deepest core of my body. It's in my DNA to be a fan and to perpetually hope that this year is going to be the year the Bengals break through the ceiling and get a playoff win. So every year I experience a little bit of Deja-vu when I look at the season and forecast a playoff birth. And nearly every year, I experience it again when they disappoint. So this year, as I look into my crystal ball, I once again see a potential breakout year, but I have to wonder if its only my false optimism leading me down paths of disappointment that I have walked so many times before as a Cincy hopeful.
So, I turn to you all to gauge how much optimism we can realistically have for the year. With a healthy Carson Palmer, a much improved defense by adding Roy, Tank and Ray, a beefed up O-line with A Smith and with a healthy and rededicated (supposedly) receiving corps (Ocho, Coles and Henry should scare any team), how much optimism is there that the Bengals can make the playoffs? Are we going to turn some heads this year? Can we bust out like Miami did last year?
I want to take a few polls and break them down by schedule to see how many wins all you Bengal hopefuls think we could possibly have on the schedule this year. Though it's far too early to make any predictions about the season, I have a bad habit of trying anyways. Here's how I look at it.
Games 1-4
vs. Denver - Kyle Orton is overrated if you call him mediocre, the Broncos defense was more pourous than Niagra Falls last year and they have a completely new offensive system. I give the Bengals a 60% chance of winning here.
@ Green Bay - Has anybody else noticed how huge Aaron Rodgers eyes are? Will you join me in calling him "Ole Bug-Eyed Rodgers?" GB is definitely underrated, but so are the Bengals. I'd give the Bengals a 40% chance of winning this game.
vs. Pittsburg - Super Bowl Champs, scary a@# defense and Troy Bighair don't spell good things. I'll give the Bengals 20% because they'll be at home.
@ Cleveland - Hmmm. QB controversy + awful defense + butterfinger receivers = Bengals win. I'll go 75% for Cincy.
I could realisticly see the Bengals winning two of these games. Four games through the season, we are (2-2).
Games 5-8
@Baltimore - I never thought that I'd say this, but I love Rex Ryan...for leaving Baltimore. That said, the Ravens are still scary on defense, and when in Baltimore, I expect them to play well. I give the Bengals a 25% chance at this game.
vs. Houston - The Texans have a similar feel to the Bengals. Scary passing game (if Cincy gets back on track this year), but questions on defense. Some are calling for a breakout season from this texas team this year, but it will all depend on Schaub's health. I'll give the Bengals 50% at home
vs. Chicago - Chant with me now "Over-rated clap clap clap clap clap" Their defense was mediocre last year and Cutler has nobody to throw to. I'll be generous and give Cincy a 60% chance at home.
vs. Baltimore - Hmmm. I predict that at this point, everybody is realizing that Flaco is not the heir-apparent of Ben Rothlesberger and that their defense is losing steam without their coordinator. I think Cincy has a good chance of splitting the series with Baltimore, so I'll give them 51% chance at home.
I see two wins here. Through eight, I think the Bengals are 4-4.
Games 9-12
@ Pittsburg - This one could very well be a hail mary. I love my Bengals, but I don't bet against a champ at home. Bengals 10%
@Oakland - Even if Heyward-Bay turns out to be the best receiver in the league, he doesn't have anybody throwing to him (unless they give Garcia a chance). And McFadden won't make any difference without an offense that can move the chains. Cincy - 70%
vs. Cleveland - Bring your brooms cause it's gonna be a sweep. Cincy 80%
vs. Detroit - Stafford + Johnson could be dangerous. Still no "D" though. Cincy 80%.
I see three wins in this stretch. Bengals are 7-5 at this point.
Games 13-16
@ Minnesota - Look for me in the stands O' Cincy Faithful. I'll be eating a bowl of cincy chili and looking trying to get Palmer's autograph. Depending on who the defense shapes up for us will be the key. Stop Peterson, stop the Vikings. Cincy 40%
@ San Diego - LT, Sprolles? I don't like either option. Hey, at least it will be warm right? SD was a streaky team last year, but they will have better odds with Merriman back in the lineup. Cincy - 30%
vs.Kansas City - I expect KC to be better, marginally. Cassel or Thigpen won't make a huge impact. Cincy 75%.
@ New York Jets - Well they have a QB now, but don't have a receiver. I expect Coles to be jacked up to play this old team and I expect the Bengals to be focused and ready for the playoffs. Cincy 60%.
Cincy could take two of these games, which puts them at 9-7.
The crystal ball has spoken. I see at least 8 wins on the schedule (which is impossible to predict in June, but I know that we all try anyways). How many do you see?
0 recs |
35 comments
Email
Print
Comments
I see 7 to 9 wins, being just a little optimistic. Neat post, but the ranges on the poll screw it up. 8-12 is one option? 8 or 9 wins is VERY different from 11 or 12.
by indesignkat on Jun 7, 2009 11:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True it’s a big range, but on the other hand if they win 8 we look like geniuses… and if they win 12 we do too. I can live with that. :)
by FriarBob on Jun 8, 2009 8:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
first game
I think we will see how good the Bengals are the first game of the year. Almost the same situation as last year, rookie head coach and new quarterback (not a rookie, but in a new system)
I can’t wait for the season to start……..i would get in a time machine if possible.
by nadfflictar on Jun 8, 2009 9:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like your thoughts...
Your game by game predictions and percentages I think are pretty accurate as well as seemingly unbiased. Which is a hard thing to accomplish.
However, where I would dispute you in your pre, game-by-game analysis is where you call Cincy’s O-Line “Beefed Up.” Adding a rookie tackle who has some questionable traits and only returning what is essentially one starter from last year’s unit is hardly a “beefed up” line. Just because they sucked last year and the unit was reshuffled doesn’t make it improved. As far as we know, the unit could be worse.
Whitworth should be playing guard, not tackle. Cook/Crummie/Luigs at Center sounds awfully frightening to me right now, and Nate Livings at guard probably isn’t scaring anyone in Baltimore or Pittsburgh.
I unfortunately predict hat the Bengals are going to have the same struggles running the ball and protecting the passer this year…JUST LIKE they did last year.
by JohnCockToastin on Jun 8, 2009 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
O-Line
Andre’s character flaws are probably over-hyped for the reason that he is a Bengal. I realize he’s going through some agent troubles, which makes him look a little immature, but I’m happy to have him at right tackle. Over all though I suppose that I may have overstated that one. The O-Line is definitely the teams biggest question mark.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jun 8, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s what I’ve been saying. The “improved” offensive line is only speculation right now. Sure, we ditched 3 linemen who didn’t play very well last year, but I don’t see how promoting their backups is an improvement. Let’s say Andre Smith isn’t any better than Stacy Andrews this year, which is very possible considering he’s only a rookie and “immature” (not lazy or ignorant apparently). Where does the improvement come from? Cook over G-check? Nate Livings over Whitworth? Whitworth over Levi?
by bodacio on Jun 8, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well for one, anybody over Levi has to be an improvement. Levi was good, no great, in the past, but he royally stank the last few. I think Carson could play left tackle better than Levi did the last two years. Well, maybe a slight overstatement there… :)
Not so sure about the center, but again it would be hard to be worse.
But there are other sources of improvement available. Remember that when Carson got his nose busted or his arm torn up last year in both cases it was not the line’s fault. It was Butterfingers Perry’s fault for failing to pick up a blitzer. So having somebody else who can actually pick up a blitz back there will also help.
Throw in a healthy TE or two and you’ve got the foundation for significant improvement even if everybody is merely average.
by FriarBob on Jun 9, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The defense and return of Carson will keep them out of the cellar as long as they all stay healthy but the O-Line will be the big question mark of the season. It they are improved we could be a 9 or 10 win playoff contender. If it is a learning year for them, we will probably end up with 6 or 7 wins.
by smoormandiddy on Jun 8, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And if carson gets hurt again it’s a 2 win season… :(
by FriarBob on Jun 8, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been reconsidering this. Even if Carson gets hurt again I think we’ve got a good chance to make it to 5 or 6 wins, because barring a slew of injuries to make last year look minor the D is going to get even better, and we don’t play as hard a schedule this year. While we won’t be the 2001 Ravens or anything, the D carried the last-ranked offense last year against one of the hardest possible schedules in the league. Granted things change from year to year so some horrid teams from last year will be better, but the same applies to us too, so even without Carson I think our offense would be still at least a bit better. I think even without a good offense we still have good chances to handle Denver, Chicago, Detroit, Oakland, and Cleveland. That’s 6. Throw in Houston and KC as at least possibilities and we could possibly go 8-8 with the 20th or so ranked offense in the league.
Thing is, even with a really good offense, I’m not so sure how many more games we could grab. I mean in theory we can beat B and P but it’s not wise to hold your breath on that. (I want those two teams to go 0-16 for a few seasons but I know better than to hold my breath there too.) The Vikings, Jets, and Packers are the best bets to add games, although as incredibly inconsistent and under-performing as the Chargers are I won’t rule out beating them just yet even if they are incredibly talented, talent isn’t everything. Just ask Washington how many SBs they’ve won after each year of offseason championships they’ve won. Or Dallas. Etc.
So while I’m really hoping for a quick turnaround — we all know it CAN happen — I’m really trying hard to not get my hopes up too far either.
by FriarBob on Jun 9, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like it
I dont see Cinci hitting the playoffs this year but it definitely could be a season where things start changing. The offense has the right ingredients, if the defense could just get a little better…
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
by Joe_D on Jun 8, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
we’re an optomistic bunch. lets go bengals, who dey
by bengalfanky on Jun 8, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Who dey baby! Who Dey!
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jun 8, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense is the key
Forget about everything in the offense including the OL polemic crap. We got Palmer back, and if he stays healthy, then that’s probably about a 50% improvement over last year.
But guys, you’re missing the point. Our Defense is going to be AMAZING!!! Zimmer is now settled, in his first year he was good, his second year is going to be great. Our linebacker trio of Rey, Dhani, and Rivers is going to be among the best in the league, I guarantee that. Both Johnson’s on the D line will make a TREMENDOUS improvement. We got our safeties and corners back and healthy. Wow, just by writing this I realize how better we’re going to be.
OUR “D” IS CARRYING US THROUGHOUT THE SEASON NO MATTER WHAT. COUNT ON THAT.
WHO DEY BABY!!!!!!!
If you don't live like you wanna, you live like you shouldn't
by trotanoy on Jun 9, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
poor logic there. No matter how good the D is, and I have very little confidence in them being as great as you seem to think, if the offensive line can’t open up running lanes and give the qb time to throw it doesn’t matter. No defense can carry a team when the offense goes 3 and out on every series.
by indesignkat on Jun 9, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tell that to the ravens last year. They didn’t have a running game or a passing game to speak of, yet they won 11 games. Defense can win ballgames, plus the offense is going to be better with Carson, hands down. Even if he gets sacked 40 times next year, they are going to be better. Even if Carson goes down to injury, I still think the offense has a better chance with JT O’Sullivan than they did with Fitz. They would be better even if they decided to put my grandma in at QB (she’s not very mobile, but she has a sharp eye). Point is, the QB is the most important position in the game and if he sucks, you’re not going to move the chains very often.
And yes, the defense is going to do some steamrolling this year.
Who Dey!
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jun 9, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. A great D is a strong team
Being in upstate New York, I’ve seen many Giants games, and I can tell you that the 80’s Giants won plenty of games with defense and special teams. They even did the scoring to keep pace and win the games. When you have the likes of LT and Harry Carson in your linebacking core, and a no budge line, you can win games.
That’s one solid reason we need the very best return man (men) we can find. Phil McConkey averaged nearly 20 yards on kickoff returns and over 9 yards on punt returns. That’s key to getting good position to give the offense a chance for a scoring drive. Holt and Housh did pretty good last year but it was never enough with the constant 3 and outers and a porous Defense.
To me the biggest question mark remaining for us is the O line. It has to hold up in order for us to have a winning season.
by UpStateMike on Jun 10, 2009 6:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UpStateMike
I have a an inkling your ’86 Giants references are based off of your Tecmo Bowl experiences as a kid!!
Don’t lie either, dude!!
by JohnCockToastin on Jun 10, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LT can stop any and all FGs and X-points!
At least on Techmo Bowl he did. In RL, he just crushed QB’s will to play.
by UpStateMike on Jun 10, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore Had "No Running Game?"
I seem to remember LeRon McLain, McGAYhee and Ray Rice steam rolling quite a few opponents. And Flacco was as efficient of a passer as many in the AFC.
So your analogy of Baltimore relying on their defense entirely to get 11 wins isn’t accurate.
by JohnCockToastin on Jun 10, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stats
The Ravens finished 18th last year in the league in total offense. They finished 28th in the league in total passing yards. Flaco threw 14 TDs and 12 INTs. That’s not exactly efficiency at it’s best.
You right though that they had a decent running game. They were 4th in the league in rushing, but they didn’t have a single back who averaged more than 4.2 yds per carry (Ray Rice). McGahee had 3.9 yds per carry, and McClain also averaged 3.9 yds per carry. Compare that to the Carolina Panthers where DeAngelo “You killed my fantasy team” Williams averaged 5.5 yds per carry and Stewart even averaged 4.5 yds per carry. Mostly it seems that Baltimore just ran so many times that they inevitably racked up a lot of yards.
In points scored they were 11th in the NFL. Not bad, however, this just as much a reflection of their defense than their offense. 5 of those TDs came off interceptions – 2nd highest in the league. They also lead the league in INTs with 26. Then you have to take into account the fact that nobody could move the chains against them, indicating that their offense was probably getting descent field position much of the year.
The point is, Baltimore’s offense is not likely to be better than Cincy’s next year. Though we’re hopeful about our defense next year, I don’t think that our D will be as good as the Ravens either. All this proves, is that we are a lot closer to competing with Baltimore than most people think.
Who Dey!
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jun 10, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You....
don´t think Bobbie Williams and Smith can open lanes for Benson and Scott? You don´t think just by having Carson, healthy and pumped up like he is back on the field is going to make our offense better? Then my friend, I think you are the one with the poor logic.
If you don't live like you wanna, you live like you shouldn't
by trotanoy on Jun 10, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How long will he be on the field? And Scott? What makes you think he’ll be anything more than a practice squad player this year?
Bobbie Williams is a pretty decent run-blocking guard. I’d even say a solid NFL starter, looking just at his run blocking ability. Smith is an unknown factor. How excited were the Bills a few years ago to have rookie Mike Williams anchoring the end of their o-line? I think he’s a security guard at Target now.
As for last year’s Ravens, they had a solid O-line. They didn’t have a WR worth a darn, and their qb was mediocre at best, but at least he had time to throw. Their running game was among the best in the league. There’s absolutely no comparison between them and this year’s Bengals.
by indesignkat on Jun 11, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is no comparison...
because the season hasn’t even started. You can’t compare a-year-ago team that you already SAW play, and a team in OTA’s right now. THERE IS NO COMPARISON, you’re right about that. All I’m saying is that having Palmer back, having a solid RT in Smith, a solid RG in Williams, having a visibly upgraded defense, the Bengals SEEM a lot better than last year.
If you don't live like you wanna, you live like you shouldn't
by trotanoy on Jun 12, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s still all guesswork. Smith hasn’t played a down yet and you’re already calling him a “solid RT” and suggesting the line will be better despite losing Andrews and making Livings a starter?
I’m hopeful, but I’m not going to proclaim rookies “solid” players until they show they can do it.
by indesignkat on Jun 12, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd call him solid....
on the basis of his college career and his 6th round draft position. Not only that, but the coaches have finally seen what most of us expected: he is truly a RIGHT tackle. I think he’s a great left tackle but even a better run-blocking right tackle. I’d call him solid for his talent alone, the man’s a beast, you don’t need more proof for that. Just watch his tape. OBVIOUSLY he needs experience in the NFL, no one is debating that. On tape, he looks as good or better than most tackles I’ve seen in college for the past 10 years. Tackles that are now elite in the NFL. The only questions are the off field issues, but he’s proven so far that he is serious about his work, isn’t lazy or immature as most people thought he was.
If you don't live like you wanna, you live like you shouldn't
by trotanoy on Jun 13, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in 2002 the Bills took Mike Williams 4th overall. He was expected to step right in and be one of the best tackles in the league. Not only was he not at that level, he wasn’t even good enough to play in the NFL. He’s now a security guard or grocery bagger or whatever horrendous draft busts do these days. Look at Robert Gallery. D’Brickashaw Ferguson. The list goes on and on. Just because someone was hyped up in the draft and taken high does not mean they’re a “solid” NFL player.
by indesignkat on Jun 13, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno
Our season turned out OK. Ben got sacked around 40 times and our run ranked 23 because we had terrible OL. Boy were they ever painful to see as a fan. It certainly wasn’t Steeler Style.
by steelerstyle on Jun 12, 2009 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't lose
Either way it goes some of us will be getting what we want. If we do well many of us will be happy. If we go 2-14 it seems that many of the posters here will also be happy because they will have the pile of misery they apparently love to wallow in.
" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran
by JUNGLEJOHN on Jun 12, 2009 8:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lol
We are kind of a masochistic bunch aren’t we?
Who-dey anyways!
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jun 12, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's easier to just say the team will suck again
than to get our hopes up for a good season. That way, if you’re wrong, you still are ok with it. This thinking has been par for the course because of how horrible we’ve been overall.
I’m leery, but cheery! I have a good feeling about this year, but I still have to remember this is the Bengals and there is a great chance for something to go wrong. Right now, it’s like I’m just turning the handle on the jack in the box, listening to a hearty music box rendition of “three blind mice”.
by UpStateMike on Jun 12, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on Cincy Jungle
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
