More Draft Analysis (Bengals Vs. Ravens)
by JohnCockToastin on Jul 11, 2009 10:54 AM EDT
26 comments
Someone asked that I post the same analysis that I did for the Steelers and the Ravens. (This is the Ravens edition) To save space and energy I did not include their entire draft history and all the individual grades. However, I do have them for anyone's review if anyone wants me to post them. ...and as I've come to realize, rip me for my rating basis.
The key is to read the "Takeaways" section at the end of each team's review. This explains (in my opinion) the disparity between the Bengals and our two main division rivals.
(And no, I didn't do an analysis for Cleveland...as I think even their fans will agree their drafting is disgusting)
RAVENS - DRAFT PICKS SINCE 2000:
(Total Excludes ’07 and ’08 since those years are virtually impossible to grade at this point)
Total Picks = 58
Failures = 31 (53%) ** 6 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category
Average
Players = 12 (21%) ** 5 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category
Good
Players = 9 (16%) ** 6 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category
Excellent
Players = 6 (10%) ** 1 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category
** If you use the same modeling to try and come up with the total figures using grades for the ’07 and ’08 players the percentages still turn out in the following manner:
Total = 76 Picks
Failures = 49%
Average = 22%
Good = 20%
Excellent = 9%
BEST YEAR:
-- 2000 (Jamal Lewis (1), Travis taylor (1), Adalius Thomas (6))
Honorable Mention:
-- ‘02 (Ed Reed, Anthony Weaver, Zastudil, Chad Williams)
-- ’03 (Terrell Suggs, Jaret Johnson)
WORST YEAR:
-- 2004 (All 7 players drafted were failures)
Honorable Mention:
-- ‘05 (4 out of 7 were failures. Highlights were Mark Clayton, Adam Terry, Jason Brown)
TAKEAWAYS:
1. 6 "Excellent" players drafted (7 if you include Flacco) compared to Bengals 4. **Bengals haven’t had an "Excellent" player drafted since ’03.
2. The Ravens "Failure rate is 53% with an ‘07-’08 trend looking at likely being 49%. The Bengals rate is 56% and their trend for ‘07-’08 looks to stay at 56%. This mean two things: (1) The Ravens fare significantly better (5 points is significant) and (2) the Ravens are improving their drafting while the Bengals appear to stay stagnate.
3. The Ravens "Excellent" ratio is 6% from 2000 to 2006. (looks to be 9% if you include ‘07-’08). This compared to the Bengals at 4% (5%). That doesn’t sound like much but consider it’s almost double the amount of "Excellent" players.
4. The Ravens overall ratio of drafting "Good/Excellent" players is 26% from ‘00-’06. The Bengals are at 23%. If you include ‘07-’08 the Ravens number looks to increase to 29%. The Bengals are staying at an even 23%. Translation: The Ravens are improving. The Bengals are staying stagnate. ** Will ’09 draft class change that??
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Will the '09 Draft class change that?
Here are my projections
Andre Smith (OT) – I have some reservations about this guy, but it’s hard to deny that he’s a talented player. I’m guessing that he pans out, but there will be some road bumps to go through his first year. Chance that he will be good or excellent – 50%
Rey Maualuga (LB) – Has anybody said anything bad about this guy yet? There’s a lot of talk about this guy, but the only reservation I have is that we have a lot of talented Linebackers this year that he could lose some PT to. Good or Excellent – 75% chance
Michael Johnson (DE)- I really think that MJ could come in and make an immediate impact on the line. I’ll give him a 60% chance of being good to excellent as a bengal.
Chase Coffman (TE) – I like this guy’s future, but I don’t know how he’ll fit in with Cincy. To my knowledge, we’ve never fully utilized tight ends as receivers, so though I think that he could be a talented player in another system, I’m guessing that the ball is not going to get thrown his way enough for him to make an impact on the Bengals. If we’re sticking with JCT’s rating system (it’s only a success if you succeed as a Bengal) then I’ll give him a 20% to succeed in Cincy.
Jonathan Luigs © – It seems like Luigs is shaping up to be an average to good center. He might take some time to develop, but I’d give him a 25% chance to be good or excellent.
Kent Huber (P) – If everything that we hear is true about this guy, then I like his chances of making an impact for the Bengals. I’ll give him a 70% chance to be good or excellent.
Morgan Trent (CB) – From what I’ve gathered, this guy sounds like he’s a solid tackler, but has trouble in coverage. If he struggled with college Wideouts, I have a hard time imagining that he’ll do well against NFL wideouts. 10% chance to be good or excellent.
Bernard Scott (RB) – It’s hard to imagine that Scott will be an impact player for Cincy. It sounds like he could be a good third down back, but so could Brian Leonard. I don’t see him making a big impact this year, and at 25 years old, I don’t see him making a huge impact in the future. 5% chance to be good or excellent.
Fui Vakapuna (FB) – Sounds like he has a good chance at starting or at least getting some decent playing time this year. If he blocks as well as people think then I’ll give him a 40% chance of being good to excellent.
Clinton McDonald (DT) – He was a good starter at Memphis, but nothing that I’ve read has told me that he has a lot of NFL potential. I would guess that we’d get good value in him if he turns out to be average. 10% chance to be good or excellent.
Freddie Brown (WR) – He’s on a list behind Chad Ochocinco, L. Coles, Chris Henry, Andre Caldwell, and Jerome Simpson. I don’t see him moving very far up that list. Chance to be good or excellent 5%.
Of these 11 guys, I wouldn’t be surprised if 5 of them turned out to be good or excellent. (Smith, Rey, MJ, Huber and Fui) If they do, then it ought to bump up our draft ratings.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jul 12, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Benard Scott
may be 25, but he really has not seen much action until last year. I think he’s still very fresh. He has a strong motor and what appears to be a great mindset right now.
Of course, if Andre the Giant Stack o’ flapjacks has just an average year, we are in trouble and Scott won’t do squat.
by UpStateMike on Jul 13, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kent Huber
I might be way off base hear, but I have much more faith in Kevin Huber’s ability.
by GatorOH on Jul 13, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Touche Salesman
Kevin Huber should have a better shot than somebody who doesn’t exist (or if he does, he doesn’t play for the Bengals).
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jul 13, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah?
Do you hear his name is Kevin? …or are you off base here?
If you’re gunna play the grammar police card, might wanna practice what you preach. ;-)
by JohnCockToastin on Jul 14, 2009 7:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
If Kevin doesn't work out
then we might want to look into this Kent guy. Word is he has a 70% chance of being good or excellent in the NFL.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jul 14, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha Ha
That’s awesome. Got me laughing. Not sure if that’s a crack on me or CarsonOrBust (probably both). Nonetheless, pretty funny.
by JohnCockToastin on Jul 14, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All jokes to the side.....
Im excited about the draft of Huber.Just as much as i am excited About Maulaluga,MJ,Andre the giant,Coffman,Scott and Fui.I think Lewis had his eye on him the last couple years not only because he’s local but has great talent.No doubt one of the best punter’s in the nation.It’s been a while since us bengals fans have had decent field position.I think and hope Kevin Huber will be a big suprise for us this year.Damn maybe i need to slow down on the kool-aid,im just really anxious to see what this 2009 team can do .
by Who-DeyWilloughby on Jul 14, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
huber...
I think huber will make a big impact… watching a couple of UC games, Kevin has the ability to kick the ball to the oppisite side of the field. This is an under rated stat because if we get pinned in our ten and he can kick it to the their 20 or 30 is a huge advantage and is something we were lacking in the past couple fo years. The bengals are already really confident in his ability by cutting larson before training camp. I think this year draft was great, we got value in every single round!
AMAS
by AMAS85 on Jul 14, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
- morgan trent
which may be unfair of me to say at this point.. but if he cannot cover college wideouts, how can we expect him to cover the elite WRs of the NFL? This was the only pick I really did not understand.. their were definitely better CBs left on the board, but I guess we will see.. are we there yet?
by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Jul 15, 2009 12:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Trent
I don’t know about Trent either. It seems that the guy has is a good tackler, and is very fast (he ran a 4.4 sec 40). There was also some mention about him being able to play safety at the pro level. I just hope that the staff has a better grasp on this guy than I do. There’s definitely something about him that they liked.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jul 15, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
I too was blown away by the strength of this years draft.Good talent and good picks by need of position.We all know that our depth at corner is weak. Castille nor Jones has shown to be be a solid 3rd corner.Jones at times seems like he’s coming around,but has yet to prove himself.I was and still am mystified by the the pick of Morgan.Granted that Michigan’s defense was non existant last year.Maybe struggled under the new coaching staff,but its been noted that the fans themselfs were’nt very supportive of Trent from the beginning.I have to believe that maybe beefing up the O or the D line would have been a better move.Then we might have picked up a veteran corner such as Hood for instance to help solidify our group of corners.Maybe they know something we dont.
by Who-DeyWilloughby on Jul 15, 2009 4:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i think the worst pick was morgan trent
"Ghiaciuc's play was a distraction"
by firstPick on Jul 15, 2009 6:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it was to hide the cheating
Like in high school when you get the answer sheet for the test. NEVER get all of the answers right, the teacher will know something’s up.
by UpStateMike on Jul 15, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the theory
Maybe all along, we’ve had the cheat sheet for the NFL and have just been playing it low all year long…until this year! As it turns out, we’ve concocted the perfect team through the unlikely person of Mike Brown…and we all thought he was an idiot.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jul 15, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say the more likely scenario is
there was an NFL Owners mixer and the cheat sheet fell out of Billicheck’s back pocket. Mikey, ever on the prowel for loose change on the floor, spotted it and used it to wrap up a couple of dinner rolls he swiped at the buffet line. While eating the rolls the next morning, Marvin said “Lemme see that.” Mikey grabbed his rolls and said “MINE!” “Marvin said no, the paper you dolt.”
by UpStateMike on Jul 16, 2009 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting theory
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jul 16, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Brown is why they hand out different cups for water and soda at B-dubs now...
he kept asking for a water cup and filling it with sprite. cheeky bastard..
by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Jul 16, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing unites Bengals fans
more than ripping our owner! Good play Upstate and 80%!
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Jul 16, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah no kidding. Somebody else rec the original that needs to be highlighted. For that matter, it probably needs to spend some time visibly on the front page of the site… :)
by FriarBob on Jul 17, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
McDonald's Ban
I also heard that Mike Brown is banned from through the McDonald’s drive thru because he allows got out of his car to pick up loose change on the ground to pay for his double cheese. :)
by The Dealio on Jul 20, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trent & Scott
I think that Morgan Trent looks like a decent third option at CB. A 6’1 guy with 4.4 speed and a 38 in vertical seems like a no brainer to put across from a teams third option at wide receiver. Even if he turns out to be an “average” player, it looks like he could be a good value and fit for our team.
by The Dealio on Jul 20, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh yea...
And I think Scott is a nice value as well for where we got him. He’s a decent athlete who as a JuCo runner was unmatched in production. I think he could be a Mwelde Moore type guy won’t ever be L.T or A.P… but is shifty and talented enough that he’ll earn some minutes and respect on the field if given the opportunity
by The Dealio on Jul 20, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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