Has Carson Palmer regressed since 2005 -- a look at the most insane question of all-time

by Josh Kirkendall on Jul 16, 2009 3:24 PM EDT in Analysis

Sitting on a barstool after work, listening to other Bengals fans express themselves about the team (whether you want to hear it or not) can be enlightening. I know I don't hold all opinions of everyone else and I realize that I haven't heard every opinion expressed. There is an opinion, however, that I've heard before and haven't brought up for discussion.

Is Carson Palmer regressing? No. Surely not God of the Golden Arms!

The argument is that since Kimo Von Oelhoffen "unintentionally" destroyed Palmer's knee during the 2005 Wild Card game, Palmer hasn't been the same. I don't think there's really any question to that. Palmer has admitted in the past he's had comfort issues while a pack of angry bulldogs are swarming him in the pocket. He wasn't stepping into the pocket like he did before the injury. His efficiency has gone down, as his passer rating, touchdowns while his interceptions increased. The argument that people make while saying Palmer is regressing, suggest this: look at his stats. So let's look at his stats (you can ditch 2008... please):

Season	Game	Comp	Att	PCT	Yards	Avg	TDs	INTs	Sacks	Rating
2008	4	75	129	58.1	731	5.7	3	4	11	69.0
2007	16	373	575	64.9	4,131	7.2	26	20	17	86.7
2006	16	324	520	62.3	4,035	7.8	28	13	36	93.9
2005	16	345	509	67.8	3,836	7.5	32	12	19	101.1
2004	13	263	432	60.9	2,897	6.7	18	18	25	77.3

But then your mind starts wondering, like your brain putting up a hand and saying with its best Dr. McCoy impression, "what a damned minute". Accepting stats as your only reasonable argument, is, in my mind, dangerous. The story isn't told through stats. It's more than that. Different schools apply. Some include the precious art of winning football games -- like how Paul Brown judges quarterbacks. Others call into question the players, or the offensive system/coordinator that's calling the game. Either way, stats doesn't do it alone.

If you base the argument of regression on winning, I can't argue against that. Winning is winning. There's nothing else. Since beating Oakland in 2006, the Bengals lost 12 of their next 19 games. Would it be fair to say that there's regression in Palmer's game because the team hasn't won much since starting 8-5 in 2006? While I don't subscribe to that argument personally, I think it's more than fair to make. Quarterbacks are paid and expected to win the game. Is that fair? Maybe not. It just is.

I believe that the argument that ALL pieces of a team have to work together for there to be reasonable success. The Bengals defense has always been a detriment. In 2006, the scoring defense ranked 17th. In 2007, the scoring defense ranked 24th. You can see the increase in passing attempts from 2006 to 2007 as the Bengals defense kept giving up more and more points. It wasn't just the defense. The rushing offense started stumbling (badly). Rich Braham and Eric Steinbach left -- two offensive linemen that were a big reason for the team's offensive success. Levi Jones and Willie Anderson suffered injuries in which they never recovered from in their Bengals career. And through it all, Bob Bratkowski was here.

The Bengals are playing from behind. The Bengals have a declining rushing offense. There is no balance. Balance doesn't exist anymore. It's gone.

Anticipating this, defenses started using 5-6 defensive-back formations. With how this offense is built, once balance started becoming imbalanced, the offense as a whole struggled. Look at the following chart, which shows an increasing differential from 2005 (the team's best year in, well, a really long time) and 2007 in terms of plays called-- the span of the argument that Palmer is regressing.

Season	Rank	Passes	Rushes
2007	10th	575	416	+ 159
2006	8th	523	435	+ 88
2005	6th	538	459	+ 79

The issue here is whether you believe it. I can make a better statement. Palmer hasn't regressed since 2005. The entire team has. But that's not the issue we're discussing. Do you believe that Carson Palmer has regressed? Or do you think I should just stop listening to drunk people at bars.

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Stop listening ...

to drunks in bars. Unless it’s me. No, Palmer hasn’t regressed … and 2007 proved it. Actually, I thought he played better in ‘07 than ’05, esp considering the ’07 team wasn’t nearly as good as the ‘05 playoff team. That last-minute, LONG drive he engineered in the ’Denver Snow Storm Game’ showcased his guts and immense talent … and had the extra point not been attempted by the 3 Stooges, it may have been a landmark game for him, the team and city. Bottom line, give Palmer time in the pocket, a decent running game, competent WRs running correct routes, and just an average D behind him and he’s first-team all-Pro … 5000 yards, 40TDs, 105 PR. Palmer is by far the least of the Bengals problems.

by Timzilla on Jul 16, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions

I can without

a doubt say that the only drunk people at bars you should listen to better have a nice set of DD’s and long, long legs! Carson set the bar very high in 2005 and he hasn’t been able to duplicate those stats ever since for a laundry list of reasons. Has he regressed, absolutely not.

by Tommyboy45 on Jul 16, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions

No Way

has Palmer regressed. Your imbalanced offense stats are far more telling than his passer ratings. If we have to come back from behind more often and deferences are siting back on the pass, then its very logical that Palmer’s TD to INT ratio would get worse and his yards passed for would go up which is exactly what has happened. Like Timzilla said Palmer is the absolute least of our problems

by CincyMike56 on Jul 16, 2009 5:10 PM EDT reply actions

What I think is interesting

is how the rest of the league and the media are treating Palmer. They act as if he’s a 40 year old Brett Favre who’s at the end of his career. To those who say this, I cry a pox upon you!

No, I don’t think that Palmer has regressed, but I do think that in the eyes of the world, other quarterbacks have vaulted ahead of him. Ben Rothlesberger for one is widely considered the best QB in the AFC North. Why is that? Stats? Nope. In terms of yards, completions and TD’s Palmer’s the better QB. The answer is Super Bowls! The NFL doesn’t grade players based on stats except for the statistics of wins and losses.

I don’t think it would matter if Palmer had a 75 passer rating, If the Bengals were winning Super Bowls he’d be considered one of the leagues elite QB’s.

Kirk, as to listening to people in Bars, I would say keep on listening. They say funny some funny shit. I would argue that they are often a lot more funny stuff than people who are sober and say rational things. Nice article by the way.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Jul 16, 2009 5:40 PM EDT reply actions

In His Shoes

Would stay away from work for a couple of months if you thought you could get more than million bucks out of it long term?

by MontanaBengal on Jul 16, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions

Crap

Wrong thread. Rookie mistake. I apologize.

by MontanaBengal on Jul 16, 2009 7:11 PM EDT reply actions

Wait a second...

….I think I see it…..are these…excuses? A Bengal fan’s best buddy. Dulls the pain. 101…93…86…69……No, he’s getting better OBVIOUSLY! Put on your WhoDey glasses and do the Bengal math. 69>101.

Here’s the deal with Palmer: He’s a smart guy, good arm, excellent passer. However, considering his complete lack of mobility, he’s going to go as his line goes. There isn’t even a Marino-like ability to shuffle around the pocket. Our line gets beat, he goes down. The defense jumps offsides…he spikes it when every other QB I’ve seen play football recognizes that it becomes a free play. Obviously, it’s not 100% his fault or a complete erosion of skills, but the best QB’s can make something out of nothing and don’t need pristine protection to be effective.

by bodacio on Jul 16, 2009 8:26 PM EDT reply actions

Best Buddies

Actually, the Bengals fan’s best buddy is cynicism. It’s an easy mistake to make though.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Jul 16, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s my best buddy. Maybe yours. But hope springs eternal for some around these parts. Must be disappointing.

by bodacio on Jul 16, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

There is no question that his stats have regressed.
INT’s on the rise.
TD’s on the decline…despite more attempts.
Passing Efficiency on the decline.
Yards per Average on the decline.

But that’s not a clear indication that the player has regressed.

Football is a team sport, and so much of one’s performance is dependent on how all of the other functions of the team around operate. Are you always playing from behind? Is your O-Line killing you? Is your running game defunct? Is your defense staying on the field too long? Etc….

by ephram on Jul 16, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions

I disagree..

Although I cannot say that Palmer has ‘regressed’ talent wise, he is a different QB now then back in 2005. Ever since the playoff incident which we shall not speak of Carson has been uncomfortable in the pocket, which is where he plays football, period. I am unsure if he is just very cautious now or if he just has no trust in who is blocking for him (08’ obviously included) but something is getting under his skin.
I know if I had his busted knee and now a close to career ending throwing arm elbow injury, I’d be nervous knowing huge beasts of men were breathing down my neck. Imagine what that must do to his mental game.. Like I said, I am not claiming to know since I am not Carson nor am I close to Carson, but if you have watched the games you can see/sense his nervousness.

Carson is a sniper, he needs a steady body.. without a solid O-line it’s like trying to snipe on a trampoline with a DE jumping on it. If our O-line can block this year or hell, ever again, maybe that trust will come back. But until then it’s gonna be painful to watch such a talented gunslinger’s talents go to waste..

by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Jul 17, 2009 2:25 AM EDT reply actions

Good stuff guys

Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.

by Josh Kirkendall on Jul 17, 2009 8:59 AM EDT reply actions

Not the right question

The correct title should be: Has the offensive line regressed since 2005. The answer to that is undoubtedly.

by lburton on Jul 17, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

No Regression...

I love Carson because of his professionalism, poise and potential. And — although I don’t think he has regressed in any way, I do think it is fair to say that he hasn’t improved on some key areas like — play-action fakes (we are not good at play-action and that hurts us more than I think we can calculate), pump-fakes and looking off defenders, and the “taking a knee” on offsides kills me. Again, I don’t think Carson has regressed, but, I really, really think (IMHO) he is stagnating under Brat and not adding new skills and techniques to his bag of tricks. I wish we had an aggressive, creative, inventive OC that could work with the strengths and weaknesses that we have instead of forcing an outdated scheme that exploits our weaknesses. Oh, I wish, I wish…

by txbengalfan on Jul 17, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions

Great points.

I’m baffled as to why they haven’t paid Boomer to work with Palmer on the play-action technique. Boomer is probably the best-ever at it.

by Timzilla on Jul 17, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Totally Agree...

Boomer would be a great teacher, he could freeze the linebackers and safeties for at least 2 full seconds with his play action, that is HUGE!!! Great Idea… Let’s give Boomer a Call!! Anyone have his number?

by txbengalfan on Jul 17, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I wish,

by steelerstyle on Jul 17, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I wish, I wish, TOO

That our OC was creative and knew how to maximize our strengths rather than play calling that highlighted our weaknesses!!

by steelerstyle on Jul 17, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

PALMER HASN'T REGRESSED

THE OFFENSIVE LINE HAS REGRESSED SO PALMER HAS NO PROTECTION, AND SO THE RUNNING GAME STRUGGLES ALSO DUE TO THE OFFENSIVE LINE. I SAID IT THEN AND I’LL SAY IT NOW. KEEPING AND OLD WILLIE ANDERSON AND LETTING A GREAT YOUNG PLAYER IN E.STEINBACH LEAVE IN FREE AGENCY TO CLEVELAND WAS WHEN IT ALL STARTED TO FALL APART. THIS WAS A DUMB DECISION MADE BY THE ORGANIZATION AND THEY WENT WITH LOYALTY INSTEAD OF COMMON SENSE AND THEY DIDN’T WANT TO PAY STEINBACH TACKLE MONEY BUT WHAT DID THEY GET FROM ANDERSON FOR THAT ONE INJURY PRONE SEASON HE PLAYED AFTER RESIGNING. THAT DECISION STARTED THE FALL OF A GREAT LINE. MAKE NO MISTAKE THE OFFENSIVE LINE PLAY HAS BEEN THE REASON FOR PALMERS PROBLEMS JUST AS THEY WERE A BIG PART OF HIS SUCCESS IN ’05.

by POGO94 on Jul 17, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions