Since I/we were discussing draft analysis I thought I would post some thoughts I put together a few months back.  Warning: this post is long.  If you have A.D.D. or if you're one of the Jungle regulars who really just doesn't like me, read no further...

(March 2009)


In my esteemed investigation into the search for truth I went through every draft since 2000 and assigned a grade for every Bengal player drafted.  To make this exercise simple yet fair, every player drafted was assigned one of four grades:  Failure, Average, Good, or Excellent.  The round a player was drafted in is irrelevant to the ranking.  Thus the player either panned out, was average, or he didn’t pan out.  I think all 4 grades generally speak for themselves but there are some caviats worth mentioning – especially when considering how I assigned grades to certain players.   For example, a player who was assigned a grade of “Failure” could either be a player who played some significant time but played below standard (think Sean Brewer).  A “Failure” could also have been a player who was drafted in the later rounds and perhaps just never got a chance to play (think Greg Brooks, Khalid Abdullah, etc).  Or a player deemed a failure could be a guy who just never panned out due to injury or off field trouble (think most of 2005 and 2006 draft picks).  Just keep in mind that “Failure” doesn’t only translate into: “Akili Smith.”

In any event however, it is also worth noting that a players grade is not given to him based off his draft position.  For example, you can’t say a player is a “Failure” because he was taken near the top of the draft and he never fulfilled the expectation of being such a high draft choice.  Justin Smith comes to mind here.  He was a solid player.  Maybe he wasn’t worth the #4 pick in the draft…but certainly not a failure.  The same logic goes for a 6th or 7th round player picked late in the draft.  You can’t call a guy an “Excellent” draft pick or player because he was picked late in the draft and had minor success (think Tab Perry).   The point is to "try" and the take the subjectivity out of the equation. 

Moving forward, a player I graded as average is/was a player who performed to NFL standards but never stood out.  He might have had some success…but he certainly wasn’t a Pro Bowl or All-Pro player by any means.  The guy was neither a standout nor was he a failure.  He just seemed to fulfill a role. In reality, a team is always trying to find a replacement for a player in this category (Matt Schobel comes to mind in this category). 

I rated players as “Good” if they performed above average during most of their tenure but they just never reached “Pro Bowl” type status. (Think Landon Johnson)

Players rated “Excellent” are players who well, are or were excellent.  In order to be considered excellent I felt a player needed to be a Pro Bowl or All-Pro player.  (Very few players drafted since 2000 made this category.  Think Carson, Chad, TJ, and Rudi.  That literally is it -- though the jury is hopefully still out on a few players picked recently.)\

Lastly, I did have one other variable that affected a players grade and that was his time spent with the team.  As an example, you could claim Neil Rackers is an above average to pretty good kicker in the NFL.  I however don’t think you will find one person in the city of Cincinnati who will tell you he was anything but a failure while he was here.  Thus, that’s how he was rated.  Same goes for a player like Peter Warrick.  I feel Warrick would have earned a grade of “Good” as in '02 and '03 he put up some respectable numbers...but his career here only spanned a brief 4 year stint.  Therefore, a 4 year career riddled by injury and mostly disappointment I think downgrades him to an “average” player.  Had he played here for another year or two I think he would have been considered a “Good” player.  Point being, a players length of time spent with the team factors into the equation.

(I will include the entire draft roster with my grades associated at the end so you can compare or judge how I graded the players)

DRAFT PICKS SINCE 2000:
*Include Supplemental Draft

(Total Excludes ’07 and ’08 since those years are virtually impossible to grade at this point)

Total Picks    = 55

Failures          = 31 (56%)     ** 9 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category

Average
Players           = 11 (20%)     ** 5 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category

Good
Players           =  9 (16%)      ** 4 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category

Excellent
Players           =  4 (7%)        ** 0 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category

** If you use the same modeling to try and come up with the total figures using grades for the ’07 and ’08 players the percentages still turn out in the following manner:

Total                 = 73 Picks
Failures             = 55%
Average            = 22%
Good                = 18%
Excellent          =  5%

BEST YEAR:


-- 2001 (Justin Smith, Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh)

Honorable Mention:

-- ’03 (Palmer, Steinbach, J. Johnson, Kooistra)
-- ’06 (Joseph, Whitworth, Peko)
-- '09??

2000
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    Peter Warrick                        WR                  Average

2nd                   Mark Roman                          CB                  Failure

3rd                    Ron Dugans                           WR                  Failure

4th                    Curtis Keaton                        RB                   Failure

5th                    Robert Bean                          CB                  Failure

6th                    Neil Rackers                          K                     Failure

7th                    Brad St. Louis                       LS                   Average

2001
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    Justin Smith                           DE                  Good

2nd                   Chad Johnson                       WR                  Excellent

3rd                    Sean Brewer                         TE                   Failure

4th                    Rudi Johnson             RB                   Excellent

5th                    Victor Leyva                           G                     Failure

6th                    Riall Johnson             LB                   Failure

7th                    TJ Houshmandzadeh            WR                  Excellent

2002
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    Levi Jones                             T                      Good

2nd                   Lamont Thompson                S                     Failure

3rd                    Matt Schoebel                       TE                   Average

4th                    Travis Dorsch                        P/K                  Failure

5th                   

6th                    Marquand Manuel                 S                     Failure

7th                    Joey Evans                            DE                  Failure

2003
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    Carson Palmer                      QB                  Excellent

2nd                   Eric Steinbach                       G                     Good

3rd                    Kelly Washington                  WR                  Failure

4th                    Dennis Weathersby              CB                  Failure
4th                    Jeremi Johnson                     FB                   Good 

5th                    Khalid Abdullah                     LB                   Failure

6th                    Langston Moore                    DT                   Failure

7th                    Scoot Kooistra                      T                      Average
7th                    Elton Patterson                      DE                  Failure

2004
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    Chris Perry                             RB                   Failure

2nd                   Keiwan Ratliff                        CB                  Failure

2nd                   Madieu Williams                   S                     Average

3rd                    Caleb Miller                           LB                   Average
3rd                    Landon Johnson                    LB                   Good 

4th                    Matthias Askew                     DT                   Failure
4th                    Robert Geathers                   DE                  Good

4th                    Stacy Andrews                      T                      Good

5th                    Maurice Mann                        WR                  Failure
6th                    Greg Brooks                          WR                  Failure
7th                    Casey Bramlet                      QB                  Failure

2005
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    David Pollack                        LB                   Failure

2nd                   O’Dell Thurman                     LB                   Failure

3rd                    Chris Henry                            WR                  Average

4th                    Eric Ghiaciuc                         C                     Average
5th                    Adam Kieft                             T                      Failure

6th                    Tab Perry                               WR                  Failure
7th                    Jonathan Fenene                  DE                  Average

2006
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    Jonathan Joseph                   CB                  Good

2nd                   Andrew Whitworth                 G                     Good

3rd                    Frostee Rucker                     DE                  Average

4th                    Domata Peko                        DT                   Average
5th                    AJ Nicholson                         LB                   Failure

6th                    Reggie McNeal                     WR                  Failure
7th                    Ethan Kilmer                          S                     Failure

7th                    Bennie Brazell                       WR                  Failure

* Grades are Still TBD
2007
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    Leon Hall                                CB                  Good *

2nd                   Kenny Irons                            RB                   Failure

3rd                    Ahmad Brooks (Supp.)           LB                   Failure

4th                    Marvin White                          S                     Average *
5th                    Jeff Rowe                               QB                  Failure *

6th                    Matt Toeaina                         DT                   Failure
7th                    Dan Santucci                         C                     Average *

7th                    Chinedum Ndukwe               S                     Good *

* Grades are Still TBD

2008
Round             Player                                     Position          Overall Grade

1st                    Keith Rivers                           LB                   Good *

2nd                   Jerome Simpson                  WR                  Failure *

3rd                    Pat Sims                                DT                   Good *

3rd                    Andre Caldwell                      WR                  Average *
4th                    Anthony Collins                      T                      Average *

5th                    Jason Shirley             DT                   Failure *
6th                    Corey Lynch                           S                     Average *
6th                    Matt Sherry                            TE                   Failure *
7th                    Angelo Craig                         DE                  Failure *
7th                    Mario Urrutia                          WR                  Failure *

WORST YEAR:

-- 2000 (Peter Warrick and Brad St. Louis were the Good picks)

Honorable Mention:

-- ’02 (Levi Jones, L. Thompson, Schoebel, T. Dorsch, Marquand Manuel, Joey Evans)

-- ’05 (Due to injury and off field problems)

TAKEAWAYS:

If the Bengals ever want to truly compete with the Steelers year in and year out they are going to HAVE to improve their drafting.  76% of all Bengal players drafted between 2000 – 2006 were either failed projects or were average or below players. 

(The Steelers have an average/below average rate of 70%...but more importantly they rarely ever “miss” on a player taken in the 1st round.  Of the 7 players they picked in the 1st round from 2000 to 2006 4 of them have been All Pro/Pro Bowl players and 2 are in the “good” category.  Only one of the 7 has been rated a “failure” and that was Plaxico Burress – who want on to be an “Excellent” player for the Giants.)   

In comparing the Bengals overall drafting to the Steelers over that stretch of time you will see a huge disparity in these percentages.  The Steelers had 54% of their draft picks graded as failures and 13% as average.  The combined number of the two equaling 67% compared to the Bengals 76%  That is by all means unacceptable for the Bengals and truly is a telling statistic to their lack of success over that period of time.  Though the ’09 draft class looks great on paper, the trend also seems to be continuing in this same dreadful manner – as if you include the ’07 and ’08 draft class the number of failed draft picks looks to be in the 77% range.  Only 4 players (Ocho, Rudi, TJ and Carson) are rated excellent out of a total of 73 players drafted since 2000 (or 55 if you exclude ’07 and ’08).  Either way you’re talking about only a 5 – 7% success ratio in this category.  The Steelers scored an 11% “Excellent” ratio.  It doesn’t sound great…but it doubles that of Cincinnati.  Where the Bengals drafted 4 Pro Bowl or All-Pro players, the Steelers drafted 7.

There’s also an alarming trend that I think most casual observers have seen in that multiple players have been drafted from the same school in several years. (Florida St. – 2000, Oregon St. – 2001, Georgia and Central Michigan – 2005 , and Notre Dame – 2007).  This means that four out of Nine years the Bengals have drafted multiple players from one school.  Also, prior to Pollack and Thurman being drafted from Georgia in ’05, the Bengals drafted Geathers out of Georgia in ’04.  To me this singlehandedly proves the Bengals scouting and/or player personnel department is spread too thin (shocking) and is not able to see or evaluate all of the talent pool available – hence the drafting pattern.