Let's Revist Carson's Stats

by Paul Cannon on Aug 30, 2009 1:08 PM EDT

Is Carson Palmer a better or a worse QB than he was in 2005? I keep hearing that Carson is "Frail," and that he's not the QB that he used to be. But I'm not drinking the this strange, bitter kool-aid that people keep pouring. Let's look at the facts.

First of all, I have to note that stats do lie. Despite what some people may have you think, statistics can be very misleading, even downright false. So in statistics, there is one rule that stands out above all the rest "Correlation does not Imply Causation." For instance, one could produce a statistic that shows a that the more a person eats Frosted Flakes for breakfast the smarter they become. One could come up with all sorts of reasons why this might be true. However, it doesn't mean that Frosted Flakes cause people to be smarter. That's just ridiculous.

Back to football now. In Palmer's case, I don't think that his supposed statistical decreases show that he is somehow a worse QB than he was three short years ago. There has been some misleading and ungrounded stats thrown around there about Carson Palmer. Most notably that his "Frail Body" has caused his production to drop in each of the last three seasons since 2005. Well, let's look at the raw data.

Season	Team			Passing										Rushing				Fumbles
Season	Team	G	GS	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Avg	TD	Int	Sck	SckY	Rate	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	FUM	Lost
2008	Cincinnati Bengals	4	4	75	129	58.1	731	5.7	3	4	11	67	69.0	6	38	6.3	0	2	0
2007	Cincinnati Bengals	16	16	373	575	64.9	4,131	7.2	26	20	17	119	86.7	24	10	0.4	0	5	1
2006	Cincinnati Bengals	16	16	324	520	62.3	4,035	7.8	28	13	36	233	93.9	26	37	1.4	0	15	7
2005	Cincinnati Bengals	16	16	345	509	67.8	3,836	7.5	32	12	19	105	101.1	34	41	1.2	1	5	2

Things to note

#1 Before last season he played in all 16 games for three straight years, which I think debunks the myth that Carson is "Frail." Freak accidents in the '05 playoffs and the '08 regular season does not make a player "Frail."

#2 His total yards actually increased for three straight seasons, which I think debunks the myth that Carson has gotten worse for three straight seasons. Also, his completion percentage has hovered around 65% for that entire time.

#3 His 2005 season was really only his "best" in terms of efficiency. That year he did more with fewer attempts, which I think points to a more balanced offensive attack and tells us that passing the ball too often makes our offense predictable.

# 4 As for the 2008 season, Carson played 4 horrible games, but those games came against the Ravens, the Giants, the Titans and the Cowboys, the 2nd, 5th, 7th and 8th ranked defenses (respectively). One would expect that Carson's #'s would have improved as he faced less stringent defenses.

All of this said, I think that we can pretty accurately debunk the myth that Carson is obviously a drastically worse QB than he was in 2005. The Bengals as a team have slid in terms of efficiency and wins, but Carson has remained relatively constant throughout it all.

So go ahead and throw your own statistics out there and I'll try to knock them down.

Carsonorbust

Who Dey Baby!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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Comments

don’t try to use logic with the carson haters. it warps their fragile minds.

by Raging Clue on Aug 30, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

RE: Carson haters

They exist?

Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.

by Josh Kirkendall on Aug 30, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

remember last season, all the people who said “let’s start fitzpatrick”? ‘cause i sure do. don’t worry, pay attention long enough, and you’ll see what i’m talking about. probably the same kind of people that wanted to fire sam wyche.

by Raging Clue on Aug 30, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

RE:

Yea. I remember. Do you think they’ll come out and admit to it?

Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.

by Josh Kirkendall on Aug 30, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

of course not. i sat near many of them at the games. all they do is complain until the other person sucks worse, then they complain about the person they were clamoring to see on the field.

by Raging Clue on Aug 30, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Im not claiming I wanted to put Fitzy in over Carson..

But with out O-line last year, Fitzy could at least run away from the constant D-rush our QB’s were facing.. In this respect, he had a better chance of not dying behind a completely inept O-line. Plus with Carson not playing all that well before he got hurt, sometimes it takes a benching to make a player feel some burn. (see McNabb benched for one game last year)

by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Aug 30, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

lol

Almost sounds like a confession.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Aug 30, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

His numbers were off by Carson standards, but most of that had to do with his supporting cast, and his bad numbers were still better than Fitz could ever do. The only thing Fitz ever has a better chance of than Carson is winning a footrace or attending a Harvard alumni event.

by Raging Clue on Aug 30, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

ooh, and getting a pass tipped at the line of scrimmage. fitz excelled in that area as well.

by Raging Clue on Aug 30, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Yea, You need a priest...

Well it did work out for you in the long run. I mean, I was skeptical about Fitzpatrick at first, but he really made me a believer. Running around out there he kinda looked like a cross of Michael Vick (pre-dog fighting of course), and a cheetah. I also loved his epic 6 yrd passes to Hoosh on 3rd on 15. Man I am goign to miss that. I can’t wait for him to play again this year… oh wait… he’s still on our team right?

by The Dealio on Aug 30, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought Fitz was decent

I remember at the Steelers game he kind of kept us in the game there for a while by not turning it over and making some good runs and short passes. He did his best, but his best wasn’t good enough. I think he was a good backup- though O’Sullivan has looked pretty good this preseason minus the fumble.

by WhoDeyDerek on Aug 30, 2009 8:27 PM EDT reply actions

I like Carson but ....

Carson is, whether he likes if or not, the leader and field General on the team and he is falling short there IMO. Don’t get me wrong – he has superb QB and personal skills – but his leadership is really needed now. I know he is trying. I see it in Hard Knocks. I don’t know how to explain it except by example. I am old enough to remember Johnny Unitas. If you Google him or have a chance to watch some of the old Colts games you will see what I mean. Unitas did not ask or try to inspire his team mates to play hard. He demanded it. I have seen him take players, both offensive and defensive, by the face mask and literally shake them, pull their faces up close, let them know what he needed them to do and demand that they do it. He had many scuffles with Olinemen, WRs and RBs. The amazing thing is they all loved and respected him afterward. Nobody on another team stood over Johnny U without the entire team taking care of the guy. Chad would never have been tolerated. I know it was a different era but I really do think they would respond to him the same way today. Love Carson but wish Unitas’ ghost would come down and possess him.

" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran

by JUNGLEJOHN on Aug 31, 2009 9:36 AM EDT reply actions

I would only quibble with point #3. Throwing the ball too much doesn’t make us predictable. Throwing the ball too much with our inept OC is what makes us predictable.

by FriarBob on Aug 31, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

touche

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Aug 31, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Carson's easliy flustered

The biggest drawback to Carson’s game is his inability to improvise, and/or function under duress. When the line protects and the receivers run the right routes, he’s unbeatable, but when he get’s flushed out of the pocket or has to look to a receiver who wasn’t his primary one on the play, he’s very average.

Some QB’s are great at improvising. I hate to say it, but Big Ben comes to mind, as does McNabb.

In 2005 and even most of 2006, Carson was protected by a great line who gave him lots of time to make his reads and throw from the pocket. As the line has fallen apart and as Bratkowski continues to call the same offense he’s ran the past seven years, Carson has looked very average.

B. Clifton Burke

by Mojokong on Aug 31, 2009 11:07 AM EDT reply actions

i agree

that is why i hope we do more screens this year to keep the defenses level on blitzing

by nadfflictar on Aug 31, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Average Big Ben

May I remind you that statistically, Big Ben looked average last year under a horrendous line… Super Bowls tend to make QB’s look a bit better than they really are.

by The Dealio on Aug 31, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

yes, you may remind me

but my point is, Rothlis… is better at improvising on plays. I’m not talking about stats; the author of this article pointed out how stats can be used anyway we want. I’m saying Carson is good at a lot of things like throwing, which I agree is most important, but he has not improved on the qualities that he could improve upon.

In a sense, he isn’t getting better. O-line and O-coordinator have much to do with this as well.

B. Clifton Burke

by Mojokong on Aug 31, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think Brady is a great on the move either, or Payton Manning for that matter. Great QB’s get the job done their own way. Montana, if I recall was not a particularly mobile QB, but Steve Young was and they both won Super Bowls. I’m not particularly worried about Carson’s mobility. The guy can throw.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Aug 31, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not even his mobility,

it’s his pocket presence. Manning is great at shuffling a few feet to free up more time, and he doesn’t panic and tuck the ball for a sack as much as CP. I was like 12 when Montana was at his best so I cant critique him as well, but I bet he had a better feel for pressure and panicked less than CP too.

I like Carson. He’s smart and has a great arm. He just needs everything to be perfect in order to succeed and the great ones can pull off success in the face of adversity. I just haven’t seen that much of that from ol’ Carson.

B. Clifton Burke

by Mojokong on Aug 31, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

You bring up some good points, but I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on some things. There is a difference between being mobile and having “pocket presence,” but I think where we disagree is in your assessment in Carson’s presence. I don’t think that he panics as much as you are suggesting. Non-mobile QB’s that panic don’t usually throw for 4,000 yards in a season.

Part of my critique is to suggest that a lot of the criticism that’s landed on Palmer isn’t due to his actual on-the-field play, but rather for the fact that the Bengals haven’t had a winning season since ’05. People tend to get a lot more critical of individuals when a team is losing than when a team is winning.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Aug 31, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions