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Week 3 Preview: The Annual Invasion



Dick LeBeau and his pack of wild attack dogs float down the Ohio River in a weather-beaten, black frigate this weekend looking to pillage and plunder the first football team it comes across. The fair citizens of Cincinnati are alerted to hide away their children and precious metals because this angry, gruff bunch are worse than pirates; they're Steelers.

 

Star-divide

In order for the Bengals to stand up against such villainy and protect their dwelling, they must adhere to the annual mantra of aggressive play and withstanding Pittsburgh's best shot to the face. But more importantly this season, they must be completely prepared for the multiple angles of their attack.

 

Like the Bengals, this is a new breed of Steelers. In the past few seasons, Pittsburgh moved away from the smash-mouth running style we've been victimized so often against. This is partly because of multiple injuries to running backs last season and the maturation of Ben Roethlisberger. They now run an offense that shows multiple formations and little dependency on one style of play. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, has kept enough core players to allow him to vastly expand their playbook over the years, and as a result, they are now essentially a pass-first team.

 

When Big Ben was younger and more wily, it seemed that keeping him inside the pocket produced better results than flushing him out and allowing him to improvise. For whatever reason, the guy made more plays on the run or while being sacked than he did dropping back and throwing in rhythm.

 

But Roethlisberger has blossomed into a savvy, well-rounded QB, who still struggles at times with his accuracy, but excels in the ambiguous “intangibles” category. No longer can opponents keep him in the pocket and wait for him to make a bad throw, he's still as strong and swashbuckling as ever and blitzing him remains a risk in allowing the big play.

 

With Pittsburgh's ground game struggling after the first two games, Arians runs wide-receiver bubble screens (the trendiest play-call currently in the NFL), intermediate slants to Hines Ward, and dump-offs to Heath Miller in order to set up the deep crossing route or seam route to Santonio Holmes. Pittsburgh somehow manages to lull defenses to sleep with the pass, rather than with the traditional pounding of the run. Be that as it may, the Steelers have had a 100-yard rusher in each of the past seven wins at Paul Brown Stadium and sometimes tradition has a way of hanging around.

 

Therefore, the defensive priority for the Bengals should be to stop the run first, then keep all passing plays in front of them and make tackles on short routes, and finally, like always, bring Ben down once they get their hands on him. I wouldn't expect to see as much linebacker and safety blitzing for fear of giving up the big play that always seems to surface when the Steelers come to Cincinnati. Instead, they should rush their formidable front-four, keep their safeties deep and force punts rather than gamble on turnovers. If Geathers and Odom can produce half the chaos they created against Green Bay, it will make the other defensive assignments that much more manageable and should limit the shape-shifting Pittsburgh offense to a modest day at the office.

 

The Steelers defense, however, is not all that different. They still have their merciless wizard LeBeau, masterminding the carnage his band of roughnecks leave behind at stadiums every weekend. LeBeau continues to fire off his heat-seeking blitzes at every given chance and still has enough beef up front to limit rushing yards. What he won't have this time is his bushy-maned psycho of a safety and No. 1 henchman, Troy Polamalu. Even Polamalu's backup, Tyrone Carter, is banged up and is questionable to play on Sunday. Polamalu has tyrannized this city with devastating tackles and pick-sixes since he's been drafted; he will not be missed.

 

The Bengals would like to run on the Steelers, but wouldn't everybody? It's one thing to run all over a defense that claims it runs a similar scheme to Pittsburgh, and it's another to do it against the real thing. If teams could even occasionally run against Dick LeBeau and his goons, they wouldn't maintain the stigma they've earned; they're the best defense in the league for good reason. While the offensive line has exceeded expectations up to this point, lining up across from this gruff bunch will be the ultimate test.

 

So that means Cincinnati will have to go to the air, and that puts the onus on the Golden Boy, Carson Palmer. If the Bengals are to pull out a win, Palmer must play great. His performance must be better than his average and he simply cannot make brainless mistakes like his two picks last week.

 

Typically, Pittsburgh does not give a quarterback much time, which means hot reads and underneath routes could be what moves the ball down-field. If the Bengals pass-protection holds up well or if they find success on shorter gains, then they can try something vertical to Ocho or Henry, but to force it deep would be playing into their hands. It would not be surprising to see a conservative play-calling approach from Bob Bratkowski after all of his failed missions against this team in the past. I would be prepared to see a lot of throws caught short of the marker in hopes that the receiver makes a play, and attempted screen plays on third-and-longish; better to play it safe than to play it wrong.

 

So as the Steelers wash ashore and fall out of their vessel, laughing and cursing at all of us, and prepare to shove around the Bengals and their fans once again, they should encounter more resistance than normal from Cincinnati. This Bengals team has grown up some and is stronger and more willing to fight these days. But alas, they continue to be their own worst enemy with self-inflicted mistakes, and against a team that feels like a despotic older sibling, that still won't get it done.

 

Steelers 24, Bengals 20

 

MK---the bastards!

 

 

1 recs  |  Comment 19 comments

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ouch Mojo

that’s bold to predict against the Bengals on our own blog! Pitt might be the toughest team in the league, but where’s that blind optimism that we like to see?

Other than that though, good analysis per usual.

This is our year!

by Carsonorbust on Sep 24, 2009 10:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

IMO Pitt hasn't played like the toughest team so far

They’ve come out a little flat from what I’ve seen. I’m more scared of the Ravens right now than anybody.

by WhoDeyDerek on Sep 25, 2009 1:43 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice write up, fun theme to it...

I am shocked at the fact you actually picked the Steelers to win, but that takes some serious guts man, kudos. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone on our site pick against us in any game, the confidence in our own team is sometimes unrealistic, but it’s hard to argue with, I suppose.

I also believe this will be close (and odviously I hope it goes Pitt’s way), but I could see this going your way, no doubt. As you said, Troy’s banged up and so is his backup (and to be honest with you, there isn’t exactly a high level of confidence in a healthy Carter in Steeler Nation). Look for our young safety Ryan Mundy to have some playing time, I personally like his upside.

You’re dead on about the short passing game, that can beat us. The short passes force our LB’s into coverage and odviously off of pass rush. If you can make that happen, the game is yours to be had.

Good luck on Sunday, I look forward to another AFC North battle, I wouldn’t want it any other way.

by NYSteelersFan4 on Sep 25, 2009 8:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

NY, Somehow you always come off as a voice of reason, which i don’t often expect from a lot of steelers fans. Good luck on Sunday! (just not too much).

This is our year!

by Carsonorbust on Sep 25, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thank you CoB...

That to me is one of the best compliments you can give, to be a voice of reason, and I’m more than happy to recieve such praise, thank you.

I’m a firm believer in the motto “To get respect, you must first give respect.” And I respect every single athlete in this sport. They’re premier talents, the best the world has to offer, and no one should ever forget that, regardless of who your favorite team is. Sometimes a little perspective goes a long way.

by NYSteelersFan4 on Sep 25, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pathetic

You call yourself a Bengal fan and predict their loss? Give me a break. You’re scared of being wrong then. You’re just like those arrogant pricks at the Steal Curtain. I’m never reading your posts again.

If you don't live like you wanna, you live like you shouldn't

by trotanoy on Sep 25, 2009 10:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

LOL

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill

by PixburghArn on Sep 25, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

C'mon, man

did you think the Bengals were going to go 16-0? I didn’t write that they’d lose because they suck. Bengals are playing well and this totally a game that they can win, I just think they’ll come up short this time. And if I were scared of being wrong, I wouldn’t predict an outcome at all. I picked the Bengals to win last week (and of course against Denver). I hope you change your mind and read my future posts; I bet I predict more wins than losses when it’s all said and done, but I’m only trying to be fairly objective and realistic.

B. Clifton Burke

by Mojokong on Sep 25, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

dude, it’s a bold prediction, but I just don’t think that you could realistically not to get a little flack for predicting THE STEELERS (of all teams) to beat us on our own blog. There’s too much pain there not to get a little defensive. It’s probably better to stick with the cliche’s like “it’s gonna be an uphill battle” or “if we give 110%, we can pull out a win” or “Troy’s out, so therefore their defense sucks” (not entirely true of course).

Well anyways, we know who you’re pulling for, so let’s hear the who-dey’s and if we go down, we’ll at least go down swinging! You’re a good writer, I’ll keep reading your blogs regardless.

Who Dey!

This is our year!

by Carsonorbust on Sep 25, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the Bengals win this week

I want you to post every week and predict a Bengals loss ;)

by featherman on Sep 25, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

um, my experience with bengals fans is that they rarely predict the team to win. you can’t fault the guy for being realistic, since history doesn’t bode well for us in this game.

that said, i personally expect us to win; it’d be nice if the game weren’t close.

you're all posers. i hated bratkowski before it was cool.

by Raging Clue on Sep 26, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rivers: psh, you see that beeyatch over there?

Sting Rey: who?

Rivers: that jawbreakin mofo….

Sting Rey: fo real??? you know what time it is….

3 yards and a pile of dust

by Hudepohl Dey on Sep 25, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rivers: Time to run!!

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill

by PixburghArn on Sep 25, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

i walked right into that one…good job Arn

3 yards and a pile of dust

by Hudepohl Dey on Sep 25, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know :)

I couldn’t let that one get past. Hey…it’s going to be a great game. I live in the area so I always like when this is a big game! My bro in law played for th Bengals too, so I will be sure to hear something this week from him. By the way….that “Who-Dey” dude is one of the trolls you alluded to in your post over at BTSC huh? lol

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill

by PixburghArn on Sep 25, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

(forehead slap)

i was checkin over there just a little while ago and saw that…..WOW.

51 hours and 7 minutes to kickoff, not that i’m keepin track or anything.

3 yards and a pile of dust

by Hudepohl Dey on Sep 25, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want to say mean things about this post. but i wont. that would be mean. i dont like the bengals but w/e.

i actually think this could be a close game. i remember last year with the backup qb and how the game was tied or something at halftime. i was actually scared we might lose….to a backup qb. and that got me thinking what it would have been like with palmer playing….now ill know. and now its a concern.

by surag238 on Sep 25, 2009 6:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent write-up

Very enjoyable, very good analysis, very realistic outcome – this coming from a Steelers fan and a writer on BTSC.

This game’s up to Cincinnati, in my opinion. If they want to simply pick at Pittsburgh’s short-to-intermediate zones in the passing game, I think they can hold possession long enough, and keep it close until the end. I don’t see Pittsburgh wanting to play that brand of football on offense, and we all know which quarterback is known to have a bit more “maverick” in him than he should. If Cincinnati stays disciplined, I think it’ll keep Pittsburgh’s defense from making big plays, which won’t help their lack of running game from trying to own time of possession.

In short, Cincy gives me more reason to believe they’ll hold the ball longer, and I think it’ll come down to that. While I used to have faith in our kicker in these games, it’s kinda hard to keep that faith after last week.

Last year, Baltimore kept this philosophy in mind three separate times, and took leads into the fourth quarter. They lost all of those games due to big defensive plays by the Steelers. Pittsburgh has to find some way to neutralize the short passing attack that was so effective against them in Week 2. To pull off Harrison and Woodley into coverage is to eliminate their pass rush. To blitz Farrior and Timmons dozens of times is to ask to give up big running plays.

This defense is going to have to show me it can make plays without King Troy in there…until that happens, I think Pittsburgh should prepare for the same game plan Chicago ran to victory, starting this afternoon.

by ncoolong on Sep 27, 2009 12:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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