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For Bengals, Two-Minute Miracles and Last-Minute Stops Lacking in 2010

CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 10:  Quarterback Carson Palmer #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals gets off a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Paul Brown Stadium on October 10, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio.  (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

The more things change, the more they stay the same. For all the (deserved) opprobrium being hurled at the Cincinnati Bengals in the wake of their implosion against the Buccaneers Sunday, the fact is that this year's team isn't turning out much different from last year's, aside from the two-win difference in the won/loss column.

At the end of last season, Football Outsiders' exhaustive DVOA rankings put the Bengals right about the middle of the pack: offense ranked 19, defense 13, special teams 21.

After five games this season? Offense 19, defense 14, special teams 16 (h/t Mike Nugent).

And while the 2010 Bengals are throwing more and running less, the net result has been a wash. RB Cedric Benson has 101 fewer yards rushing and one fewer touchdown (2 vs. 3 in 2009) on the ground over the first five games; QB Carson Palmer has 171 more yards in the air than through five games last year and the same 7-6 TD-INT numbers.

Star-divide

So...why were we 4-1 then and 2-3 now? Because when you live on the edge, it's easy to fall off. Last season's grind-it-out style resulted in week after week of close games in which Palmer was required to work a two-minute miracle and/or the defense had to go out and Get. One. More. Stop.

This season's air-it-out style has resulted in week after week of close games in which Palmer is required to work a two-minute miracle and/or the defense has to go out and Get. One. More. Stop.

Last season, they got those miracles and those stops. This year, they haven't.

Case in point: week 2 last year. The Bengals are trying to get their first win at Lambeau Field. At the 2:00 warning, the Bengals kick a field goal to make it a 10-point game. Defense needs one more stop.

They don't get it. In a bit over a minute, the Packers go from their own 21 to the Cincinnati 27 and kick a field goal. Then special teams emphasizes the "special" part and the Packers recover the onside kick. After two Aaron Rogers incompletions, the defense gives up a 22 yard pass on 3rd and 10. And with :16 left, Rogers hit Donald Driver at the 10.

And the Packers get blown for a false start. Game.

Next week, the Bengals host Pittsburgh. This time, it's on the offense. With 5:14 left, the Bengals get the ball down by 5. Palmer orchestrates a 16-play, five-minute drive that includes two fourth-down conversions (both by pass), a touchdown (pass) and a successful two-point conversion (pass) to put the Bengals ahead by 3 and win the game.

Some weeks, it was both. Week 5, 2009, in Baltimore: down 14-10 with 2:15 to play, the Bengals hand the ball to Palmer again and ask for a miracle. In a drive that features just 7 rushing yards (6 by Palmer) the Bengals go 80 yards for a touchdown, aided by 30 yards in Baltimore penalties. But Baltimore still has 16 ticks on the clock, and it takes a Leon Hall pick to seal the win.

This season? It's last season's evil twin. Two weeks ago, the Bengals, down 3, drive from their own 14 to the Cleveland 31 before a Chad Ochocinco penalty and a Carson Palmer sack force a punt. No miracle. Now, with 4:41 on the clock, the defense needs to get a stop. But they can't stop Peyton Hillis, who first converts a 3rd and 1, then rips off a 24 yard run to close things down.

And then there's Sunday. Set aside ThirdAndThirteenGate -- if the D can stop the mighty Bucs offense from driving 50 yards for a TD, the Bengals probably win. But they can't. Then it's back into Palmer's hands for another miracle, which doesn't materialize. You can only push your luck so far.

Josh asked earlier today who was giving up. Not me. They barely scraped by most of last year, and I didn't let it bother me. Maybe I should have, but it isn't my style these days. So I'm not going to let the fact they barely fell short twice this year get me down, either. They have to get better, yes, but I see a lot more room for improvement right now than I ever did last year.

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Apples & Oranges

This years schedule compared to last is the difference. 2-3 in the easiest part of the 4th most difficult schedule is going to haunt this team. If they start playing like we all expect we are still going to be looking back to the last two weeks wishing we could get them back when we are competing for a wildcard or possible winning a division & not getting a 1st round bye. Everyone (including the players) knew how import a fast start to the season was due to this years schedule. Lets hope stiffer competition provides more incentive because it’s coming. Perhaps TO & OCHO will take timeout from their busy TV show schedule to go play toss with Carson. A shake-up this week might have provided a wake-up call, too bad MB has a built in snooze button.

by Vman in Germany on Oct 12, 2010 9:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Both taste the same

The schedule may make a difference this year, but that’s far from clear right now. In 2009, the Bengals played 9 games against teams that ultimately finished with a winning record. This year, I think we can safely say Cleveland, Carolina and Buffalo will finish at .500 or worse. A couple other teams will likely falter. So I don’t think they will face many more “tough” games this year; at most 3, almost certainly less. They survived losses to Denver and Oakland last year. But there’s no doubt they have cut their margin for error very fine.

by BeerRun on Oct 12, 2010 10:04 PM EDT reply actions  

I was thinking the same thing....

that the Cardiac Cats of last year were making the very plays at the ends of games that are missing this year. The last time the Bengals actually dominated an opponent was last year’s Chicago game; in the NFL, if you dont step on the neck early than your opponent may come back and beat you at the end. The Bengals simply need to start dominating early – and stop making idiotic mistakes. If they play up to their potential, theyll be fine, otherwise, it will be a long season.

"Ryan, Things in here don't react too well to bullets." - Marko Ramius

by TarZander on Oct 12, 2010 11:08 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with this comparison

except you don’t question why the Bengals are not exhibiting the same “clutchiness” from last year. I see two factors.

First, the Bengals have no identity on offense. Last year we were playing with a patchwork Off. line (I know it’s the same line this year) but they excelled with a limited run oriented playbook. True they did pass but mostly short drops and without much success except in the two minute drill. This conservative approach to offense allowed for fewer penalties, fewer turnovers, fewer sacks, and less time the defense had to be on the field.

Second, we are not getting the calls at the end of games like we were last year. Defensive holding on the Bengals while trying to stop the Browns last drive was devastating to our chances of getting the ball back. Against TB the Bengals’ def. was “jobbed” on a very questionable TB reception. I’m not saying the refs lost the game for the bengals. I’m just contrasting last years last minute stops/wins to this years last minute loses.

"They looked far more like they....were trying to screw the football than move it downfield" JungleJohn

by featherman on Oct 13, 2010 8:40 AM EDT reply actions  

On the conservative approach

That seems to be a common perception, but upon examination I think there isn’t as much there as people believe. In terms of time of possession, the Bengals are actually fractionally ahead of last season, having held the ball about :37 more through the first five games this year vs. the first five last year. And believe it or not, Palmer has actually taken fewer sacks so far this year (7) compared with 10 in the first five games last year.

They are more prone to turnovers (10 so far vs. 8 last year) and penalties (36 flags in five games this year, 34 last year) but those numbers stink no matter which year or style you look at. Be it last year or this year, the Bengals were and are playing too much sloppy ball to have any margin for error, and this year, unlike last season, they aren’t getting away with it.

by BeerRun on Oct 13, 2010 12:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Time of possesion and sacks allowed are the same.

I’m surprised. My point was that the Bengals have no identity on offense. I believe that makes the offensive line play with even less confidence than they already show.

"They looked far more like they....were trying to screw the football than move it downfield" JungleJohn

by featherman on Oct 13, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

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