Schefter Confirms Owens Won't Return To Cincinnati - Ochocinco And T.O. Combined For Only 50% Completion Rate

by Josh Kirkendall on Dec 21, 2010 12:41 PM EST in Stats

Peter King said during Sunday Night's Football In America that Terrell Owens will "definitely" not return to the Cincinnati Bengals in 2011 after completing his one-year rental contract, mostly in response to the forgotten Antonio Bryant ~~fiasco~~ signing. Owens reportedly plans on playing another two years before hanging them up. Just not in Cincinnati.

ESPN's NFL Insider Adam Schefter confirmed King's report on Tuesday, citing a "league source", that Owens won't return. This was never unexpected. Some view that Cincinnati's fall from 10-6 to 3-11 in the span of months could be partially a result of a negative influence that Owens had in the lockerroom. Not that anyone knows that. Just mostly some conjecturing that since he's the biggest changed piece from last year's playoff team, along with the historical baggage that Owens brought to other teams in the past -- most notably the Cowboys and Eagles -- it couldn't be completely unreasonable for someone to have that point of view.

Through 14 games this season, along with being the most targeted player on the team, Owens was the least sure-handed. Of the 139 passes thrown by Carson Palmer to Owens, the wide receiver caught only 52% of the passes. Not that this is too terribly surprising, considering Owens is often a league leader in terms of dropped passes.

Alternatively, Chad Ochocinco only caught 53% of his passes, which ranks amongst his career lows. However not by much. From 2004 until this season, Chad finished only one season catching 60% or more of his passes -- 63% in 2005. Combined, the Bengals starting wide receivers only recorded a combined 52% completion percentage of 265 passes thrown their way.

There could be a number of reasons why. One, the passes were poorly thrown. Two, miscommunication. Three, defenses are naturally going to cover your best offensive weapons with their best coverage players. Four, the receivers are running free-lance routes -- which Chad is known to do.

Many will simply use the Carson Is At Fault argument, which they are more than welcome to do. However, if you combine every other Bengals player that's been targeted for a pass, Palmer's completion percentage jumps to 70% with nine different players on the receiving end of 254 passes.

Take it for what it is -- numbers of no real context. However, every Bengals player, save for Jerome Simpson and Daniel Coats (combined five targets), recorded a completion percentage of 60% of better with Shipley, Benson, Leonard, Scott and Kelly recording a completion percentage of 72% or better.

Players	Targets	Receptions	% Caught
Terrell Owens	139	72	52%
Chad Ochocinco	126	67	53%
Jermaine Gresham	78	48	62%
Jordan Shipley	68	49	72%
Cedric Benson	33	25	76%
Brian Leonard	26	20	77%
Andre Caldwell	21	14	67%
Bernard Scott	11	9	82%
Reggie Kelly	11	8	73%
Jerome Simpson	4	2	50%
Quan Cosby	2	2	100%
Daniel Coats	1	0	0%

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Don't Look at Stats in a Vacuum

Running backs on teams consistently have much higher catch percentages than receivers. Look at the NFL leaders in percentage of passes caught this year, and you will see that out of the top 20, Austin Collie, Jason Avant, Jason Shipley, and Wes Welker are the only wide receivers, and they are mostly short-pass targets. Fourteen of the top 20 are running backs, a typical total in a given year.

It is true that TO and Chad’s percentages are low, but they are still above Larry Fitzgerald, a much more talented receiver who does not have a consistently competent QB. They are also bunched up with other good receivers with non-top tier QBs such as: Santonio Holmes, Mike Sims-Walker, Dwayne Bowe. Meanwhile, players like Pierre Garcon, who have look lost all year, rank higher than TO and Chad, but playing with a QB like Manning tends to raise your catch rate.

by DantesWitness on Dec 21, 2010 1:34 PM EST reply actions

+1

Nice analysis.

This is our year!

by Paul Cannon on Dec 21, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

sadly there are far too many influencing factors on NFL stats for them to hold any water.

some of the advanced NFL stats are decent but there is nothing out there that can really point to a player’s value other than watching his game film. it’s not like baseball where there is nothing but situational individuality to create advanced metrics. football relies too much on teamwork for these TO stats to mean much to me.

re: TO, it was great to watch him make some nice plays but i have been convinced in the last few days that the TO effect could be a real thing. i was never under the impression that he would be here longer than a year anyway so thanks for the fantasy points, big guy!

by GrooveLeg on Dec 21, 2010 1:41 PM EST reply actions

I agree with your comparison of advanced stats between two sports, but

Two rookies are catching the ball better then TOcho. Whatever it is catching 50% of the passes thrown to you does not merit you getting targeted that much.

I hope we go back to a run-first team, and use Shipley and Gresham effectively next year when we need to move the chains.

by TCfromDubVee on Dec 21, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

I wanna see Gresham have fewer drops next year.

What do you do when there's no way out? Find a way to get deeper in it.

by jimbasa on Dec 21, 2010 1:52 PM EST reply actions

Agreed

by Throw the ball on Dec 21, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

I agree, he should have a better %. Also tho, I think part of the problem (as always in every article that chronicles the issues on offense) is Brat. It looks like he abandoned the run when the team got Owens, Gresham and Shipley to help the pass game. He just forgot what worked the previous year and tried to just switch to a pass first offense. There are so many factors with drops, accuracy, O-Line giving Palmer time which leads to him rushing/forcing passes, receivers not getting time to run the proper routes, especially on timing patterns, etc. that are not reflected in the stats. Also, are PI calls reflected in Target count if the receiver didn’t make the catch? That could also skew the numbers.

Oh, and in regards to the article, yeah, I wouldn’t expect T.O. to return, after seeing how poorly run this organization is (in his eyes), I don’t think Benson will come back either, but you never know.

by tecknical on Dec 21, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

Best percentage on there

is Dan Coats at 0%. Sums him up perfectly.

by Anthony Cosenza on Dec 21, 2010 4:15 PM EST reply actions

Time to get rid of both

T.O. and Chad. That twosome blew up in their face. Try and get a veteran FA WR (Steve Smith of NY, Vincent Jackson) or trade for a big name guy (word is that Fitzgerald wants out of AZ). Though, knowing this team and its owner, they won’t make a splashy move like that and they’ll likely waste a high pick on a WR instead of more wisely drafting for one of the lines or trading down to get more picks.

by Anthony Cosenza on Dec 21, 2010 4:17 PM EST reply actions