FanPost

Bengals Draft trends

When mocking drafts, too many analysts look more at need than trends.  Draft trends will tell you a lot about who a team wil draft.

I take, as an exampleand as an aside, the Oakland raiders. The Raiders like a big arm to throw deep to fast receivers. That is why it was predictable that The Raiders took Jamarcus Russell to throw to Heyward Bey.

When looking at the Bengals we must look at who they have drafted during the Marvin Lewis Regime. I have also considered Bengals needs, and free agent signings, but that is less important than drafting trends. As I see it, Marvin Lewis' priorities are: QB, Offensive Tackle, Cornerback. Linebacker,  Guard, Runningback, Wide Receiver, Defensive End, Safety, Defensive Tackle, TE/FB, and kickers in that order. I will caveat that I do not have enough data, in my opinion, to correctly judge WR, TE and FB.   

My evidence is this. Marvin used his first pick, and the first overall pick on his starting QB. His second highest pick was Andre Smith instead of Michael Crabtree when both tackle and WR were, in my opinion question Marks. He drafted his starting CBs in he first round and one CB in the second, of 6 total drafted. He drafted Keith Rivers instead of moving up to take Sedrick ellis. Further he has drafted 4 linebackers in the first 2 rounds and no DT before the 3rd, and 10 linebackers overall vice 7 DTs. He has drafted 2 starting Left Guards in the second round, everyttime ther was a need and a pick available. He has taken 2 running backs in the second round, of 3 total taken, again every time there was need, he used a high pick. He has taken 10 WR in 7 Drafts including 4 in the fisrt 3 rounds. He has taken 2 DE in the first 3 rounds, and 5 overall.  He has taken 7 DTs in 7 years vs 2 FB, and 2 TE, however, he brought in starters at both TE and FB early in his tenure, so the need has been very low. He has drafted one punter.

 

I see the Bengals needs as WR, TE, G, Safety then depth at every position except punter in that order.

Based on this I expect The bengals will Draft a LB in the firdst round if the right one is available, either a SLB or MLB to back up the first year, then start.

If not, or if Michael Johnson will move to SLB (watch video or 2009 rookie camp), the Bengals will probably use their first round pick on a guard.

I could also see a WR, safety,  or TE (Moeaki from Iowa is the only one I think they might take in the first round as he is the most complete) in the first round, and a combination of 3 or 5 of these based on comp picks and the very real potential to trade down.   

I also argue that if you remove injury, Marvin Lewis has drafted very well. Four of the six  1st round picks have contributed. Chris Perry is the counter arguement, and he did not contribute as the starting RB, but only in '05 as the complimentary back. Andre Smith should start next year, he would have started this year had he not held out. Most teams would be happy with this sucess rate. Cincinnati Bengals The second round has not been as good (but should not be expected to be), with Odell Thurman being a bad risk, and Jerome Simpson a bust in the making ( I know most would say a bust, but I have looked at every 1,000 yard receiver this year and the true break out players Miles Austin and Sidney Rice did not contribute in their first 2 years.) Kewan Ratliff did not pan out, 4 of 7 started this year for their team. In the thrid and 4th round, most of his picks have contributed. Jeremi Johnson, Domato Peko,  Robert Geathers, Landon Johnson, Stacy Andrews and Chris Henry all contributed, and several also contributed a comp draft pick when they left. Caldwell is on pace to have a 800 yrad year next year if he continues to develop on the normal trend for WR. Michael Johnson contributed nicely, leaving only Coffman as a true Question mark.  I think that is good value. The last 3 rounds have been used for depth with a few gems found, notably Fanene, Huber, Ndukwe,  and Brenard Scott.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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