Why the Bengals might sleep through March 5; lack of UFA lessens interest on the market?
by Josh Kirkendall on Mar 2, 2010 2:52 PM EST
in Analysis
32 comments
WDR doesn't believe that the Bengals will sign top flight free agents this year. Their reasoning is that Mike Brown is cheap with the scouting department, doesn't pay for free agents and that he'll revert to having drafted talent because their cheap. "I think we all know Mikey Boy isn't going to explode onto the scene Friday with a big name signing. We can hope for it, staying up late at night fantasizing about Brandon Marshall wearing the stripes, but we all know deep down that the Matt Jones signing will be the only one at WR." History supports their argument.
The biggest problem in their logic is that free agency is going to be a complete bust for most teams. There's less unrestricted free agents out there because players with only four and five years worth of experience, who were schedule to be unrestricted free agents, are restricted. And of the unrestricted free agents, those of whom are not tagged, the cost for that player will be dramatically inflated based on increased demand and lesser supply. How much do you think Julius Peppers will get? The bidding war will be nuts. Karlos Dansby? We have our linebackers.
Most of the "top flight" restricted free agents are already being tendered. Look at the San Diego Chargers, who plan on giving the maximum tender to Vincent Jackson, Shawne Merriman, Malcom Floyd and Marcus McNeill. Will the Bengals sign a restricted free agent if they have to give up a first and third round pick, as well as high financial compensation? Probably not. But I don't think the Bengals have a monopoly there.
"If there's no cap, the unrestricted market is going to be really diluted," said former NFL executive Andrew Brandt, who lectures at the University of Pennsylvania on sports law and sports business. "You're going to see less top-level players become unrestricted free agents this year than ever before."
"The key issue in 2010 free agency is going to be what's going to happen with the RFA market," Brandt said. "Is there going to be an active restricted free-agent market? This is where the talent is in the free-agent pool in 2010."
Now, what positions do you believe that the Bengals will upgrade? Re-signing Roy Williams seems very possible; more like status quo than upgrade. Our linebackers are nearly set, as our defensive ends and tackles -- save for a role/depth player or two. We're looking at wide receiver; but the more you hear Marvin Lewis, the more you believe that they're going to work Jerome Simpson into the mix. Running back? Set. Offensive line. Not set, but options are limited among unrestricted free agents. Quarterback? Tight End? Should we look towards the draft or go after veterans like L.J. Smith, Ben Watson, Randy McMichael -- and are any of those tight ends the "top flight" free agents were talking about here, or simply a list of an aging veterans that will sign cheaper contracts as they get older? And you better believe that the Bengals will make play on Reggie Kelly, if not J.P. Foschi also.
That's not to say that the Bengals won't sign guys. I'm sure they'll make a play for role players that will be key on special teams, or to help build their depth -- something they could have used last season during their playoff run. Will they make a run on top flight free agents? No. And that's not because they're typically "cheaper" than most NFL teams. It's because unrestricted free agents are thinner than ever before and making a play on the best talent will mean sacrificing your first round, if not third round, draft pick(s).
So don't be surprised if the Bengals front office is sleeping through March 5.
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Signing a TE seems most likely
A lot depends on the Health of Reggie Kelly, but I think that a Veteran TE is the most likely signing.
I do not see the Bengals signing a RFA WR, nor trading for the rights to one. I could see signing TO or Kevin Walter, but no other WR. I could see a trade for Marshall, but I don’t think the Price will be right on anyo other reciever save perhaps floyd.
I do think the Bengals will resign all of our FA except maybe Kelly based on Health.
TE is the only position I think the Bengals should make a “splash”, unless they sign TO. I could see some signings for Depth, but I don’t see us signing anyohter starters.
Randy McMichael
would be a really smart signing. He is a good blocker and he can still play. All season he wasn’t asked to do much more than block but when Null came in he got the young QB his first TD with a great route and physical play (he beat three DBs!). He still looked really fluid and smooth and would be a great vet presence to offset the youth of Coffman and another rookie TE (which could just be one of those TEs who play OT). Signing him wouldn’t break the bank (like signing Watson could) so if the cap comes back he won’t have to be cut. He can block and run a good route and appears to be really good against zone coverage and in the red zone (which we need badly!)
He appears to be a slightly more athletic version of Reggie Kelly with slightly less blocking (but Kelly was like having another OT).
McMichael would probably be the most cost efficient option to secure an NFL starting TE in FA. Watson is worth offering, pending the market created for him. Looking back at the most recent season, the Bengals couldn’t go wrong with either guy.
by Cedric Benson Boat Party on Mar 2, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Agree on Mcmichael
He desperately wants out of St. Louis and is considered a guy with unfullfilled potential looking for a new start. Our kind of guy.
Probably be a decent fill-in until Coffman gets up to speed.
We have to sign a tight end. We can’t afford a replay of last year.
McMichael is not the smartest player
and he beats his wife.
besides that, sure Id sign him
www.fantasydaddy.com
i don’t see them spending a lot either, especially after the l. coles fiasco last season. i think they may look to re-sign reggie kelly at te and protect palmer, but i also think that role players and depth are the ones that will be looked at in the free agent market, while rebuilding prospects in the draft, which is supposed to be pretty good.
Looks like I'm in lockstep with Mike Brown once again...
I’ve said it all along: Matt Jones + Jerome Simpson= passing game fixed
And here some of you thought it was going to take a talent upgrade or a change in scheme. Rubbish.
nearly set at defensive Tackle??????
did I miss Tank re-signing??? Right now we have Two guys… Peko and Simms…both play the same DT spot at the 1-technique… that leaves us at a BIG ZERO for a 3-tech…
Even if Tank re-signs, he’s not the answer either with his career 2.5 sacks a year in which all the good or great 3-techs average 2 to 3 times more than that… he’s the role\depth player
Now there definitely isn’t anyone in FA to fill that, so strictly talking FA, it isn’t going to happen there…. now If Tony Brown gets anything than the highest tender then maybe… but I seriously, no very seriously doubts that happens…
We need a Kevin Williams,Warren Sapp, La’Roi Glover etc….. so as overall goes, were not close to being set at DT
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bengals get a DT early in the draft. Brian Price, who rated around the spot Cincy picks is supposed to be a ‘pocket collapser’ as a DT. I haven’t done my homework on the second and third round rated guys, but know it should be a deeper DT class than recent years, even beyond the 4-5 guys rated as first round talents.
by Cedric Benson Boat Party on Mar 2, 2010 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
RE: We need a Kevin Williams,Warren Sapp, La’Roi Glover
That was exactly my point. Those type of players aren’t available in FA and the Bengals, at best, would sign depth guys. So we’re set, in terms of coming out from the other side of FA. At least that was my thinking. Then again, Will Smith is available (last I heard)? Make a run?
I totally agree though, after Peko, it’s a massive drop off. Makes you think though. Defensive tackle in the first two rounds? But also that magical savior can’t be found in FA and this year is going to be really thin and dry because most are RFA and of the UFA, they’re aging and older, bringing little more than what, say, Tank Johnson could bring.
Furthermore, I don’t think we saw nearly anything close to the best of Tank could bring. I think he was slowed big time with his injury this year.
Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.
by Josh Kirkendall on Mar 2, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
Its a possibility but....
Tank was never the pass rusher in Chicago… Tommie Harris was…. and then you look at his 2 sacks… he got them against Houston and Minnesota… injury or not if your not good enough to play your not going too… so even with an injury he couldn’t muster a sack against GB, Browns, Raiders, Squealers 2xKC, and Detroit…. good and dominant players make weaker players against them pay….
I like Tank alot but I think the only thing that says he will improve is our personal hope he will…
RE:
You can’t depend on defensive tackles being pass rushers. That’s not their strength. As long as they clog the middle so linebackers are free to roam, they are doing exactly what they should be doing.
Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.
by Josh Kirkendall on Mar 3, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
Will Smith is a DE. Granted he’s basically a pretty decent run-stopper who probably SHOULD move in to DT because in a pass-happy league he’s worth about three cents as a pass rusher. But he’s currently still a DE.
His contract is much higher than his value at this point, whether as a DT or a DE. So if we trade for him we shouldn’t offer much and it should be conditional on a restructured contract.
Considering the Saints might end up outright releasing him (although my gut says not until 2011), they’d probably take a 4th for him if it was offered. And since they don’t have a 5th rounder this year (part of the trade that got them Morstead of the Super Bowl onside-kick fame — yes their punter is also their kickoff specialist, which is something I’m wishing we would at least consider as well) we might even have a chance of getting him for that.
For those who can't remember the uncapped FA rules, this link's for you.
I'm getting a little worried
I’m hoping we can resign Tank and—don’t laugh—Foschi before FA hits. I still want us to draft a TE at some point in rounds 2-4, and I’d like us to get a DT later on for depth, as well…but we need all the consistency we can get.
And, instead of the TO route, I’m hoping we sign or trade for a relatively young WR…not a superstar, but someone that’s been quietly productive.
I think they will both sign
But not until after FA starts, I expect this will be a slow FA season.
The smart thing to do
Would be to draft a O-Lineman in the first round,give Odell Thurman a second chance,one hell of a talent for league minimum & he now knows the N.F.L is bigger than HIM,he is an instant impact player that hits!,the line backer position would be solid,then the bengals could draft a DE in the second round,and definitely get a VETERN tightend in free agency,you know make a splash for once in the bengals history, they will save money by signing Thurman,sign Ben Watson a class act that can still play at a high level,and he can mentor Chase Coffman & Foshi & Hill,everyone else LET GO. TO or not with a tightend that can run block and catch the offensive will be fine,WITH everyone Healthy.Chad & Caldwell & Crosby healthy all they need is three more play makers,So between Jones & Purify & Simpson & Coles just Maybe one of them will come to play and PLAY HARD.
WOW
"Shiny. Let's be bad guys."
by KentuckianaBrowncoat on Mar 3, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
The Bengals never make a huge splash in FA
…so there is no reason this year should be any different. Find some guys to fill the hole and offer a veteran presence where needed. That’s the way they do it. Don’t hold your breath on TO or Brandon Marshall. Ain’t gonna happen.
I would like to see another journey man WR signed because I’m not sold on either Jones or Coles, but that may depend on the development of Simpson.
"The Bengals Never make a huge splash in FA.....
…because I’m not sold on either Jones or COLES"
Say what? I thought Coles was a pretty big drop in the bucket. Only 2 WRs that switched teams in 09 had more receiving yards in 08: TO and Housh.
RE:
Think of it this way. WE lost Housh and picked up Coles. So yea, the greedy like some of us will make that DIRECT connection. I can see the point. But I think, making no comparisons or references to anything other than his play in the passing game, Coles just stunk. Alright run blocker and veteran presence though could keep him around…
Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.
by Josh Kirkendall on Mar 2, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
he made 3-4 clutch plays..
(fumble recovery, TD catch, drive saving catch) but that was it. Not reliable and almost invisible.
by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Mar 2, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely agree that Coles was awful
but it wasn’t exactly expected. They invested the money thinking Coles would replace Housh, which is what FA is for, right? To replace talent you lose, or fill in gaps?
That was my point, that they did make a pretty big FA acquisition, since going just off of 2008 #s Coles was the 3rd best WR on the market.
Simpson
Hire Jerry Rice to tutor Simpson everyday til he gets it. Could be a long haul. He has the physical tools to be successful with proper tutoring. Its the mental part that scares me.
I don't think Coles was awful
He did take a while to get acclimated and did better as the season went on. He is an OK WR. We, however, do not need an OK WR, we need a very good WR who can draw coverage. He could do a decent job on a team that is rebuilding with young WRs who need a veteran to show them how to do it. He can teach by example but just is not good enough to help a team go deep in the playoffs. He doesn’t stink and he isn’t awful he is just too expensive and less than we expected. So, he must go.
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
"We, however, do not need an OK WR, we need a very good WR"
Yep, yep.
Blogger at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.
by Josh Kirkendall on Mar 3, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Use the Draft Wisely
In the past we’ve been able make get our DB and LB positions better for the team via the draft. J.Joseph, and Hall, Rivers and Maualuga to mention a couple. I don’t count Morgan Trent because he can’t cover, yet the idea remains the same; draft young at the position for the future.
With that in mind, a TE or Safety is the way to go. Get a TE in the middle rounds to learn the system and complement Coffman who we’re looking to come out in the future and a Safety because Williams will likely be gone by next year unless we sign him to a multi-year contract and that ain’t happening. A Safety in the mid to later rounds will solidify the position and allow a rotation that may solve the injury problem.
No real needs for the O-Line, they just need time to jell, and then maybe a D-Lineman who’s hanging around.
And get the UC playmaker Mardy Gilyard!
Minister of Great Legs
I agree and .. well... disagree as well
Yes we have established a pretty sound Corner, LB and (when heathy) a reasonably solid DL thru the draft and FA. Dahani is solid but not stellar and Tank holds the center of the line reasonably stoutly.
I also agree that the TE skill differential between the first round and 4th round is not huge, especially for our purposes. We should be able to get a good prospect with one of our two 3rd round picks. Your assessment of Williams is pretty right on as well. I think he has something left in the tank. He was pretty effective before he got hurt.
Here is where I begin to disagree.
Our Oline played better than expected and pretty well in fact. They will get even better this year but only if Williams resigns they don’t have injuries. Luigs was a mistake. He is just not strong enough. A backup center needs to be able to play guard and he is just not up to it. I would think that another guard is in order and if Iutapi is there we need to take him. He would solidify the Oline and the Oline is the single most important position group, especially here in Cincy.
I think Gilyard was a great college player and will be able to play in the pros but not at a high level. He is not big or strong enough to take a lot of pro hits and he is not fast enough to avoid them. I love his attitude and grit but he just doesn’t have the tools IMO. I am not saying he couldn’t surprise me but that is what it would be – a surprise. He is kind of a tweener – unfortunately. He has a great attutude and do like him though.
I like Shipley or McCluster in the 2nd. Shipley because he has the grit and determination of Leonard and the hands, agility and general skills of Wes Welker. His style works well with a pocket passing QB like Palmer because he is elusive enough to get open and create angles for a more stationary Carson, he is elusive enough to get YAC and he has a great ball security history. I like McCluster because he is small and very quick as well as fast. He is very strong for a small guy. I thin he had like 19 reps @225 in the combine. He would also be an excellent slot receiver with great hands, elusive YAC potential and very good ball security. He blocks like a guy 50 lbs. heaver due to his sound technique and attitude. He he also a very good backup change of pace RB if we encountered an injury. 2 players in one and he as well as Shipley are real play makers. I invite you to look at their video and see some of the pundits opinions of them. Caldwell is never going to be a great slot receiver and though he is fast he is not quick, doesn’t make people miss and tends to put the ball on the ground. He would be more effective opposite Chad where his good downfield speed and his height could work more to his advantage.
I would find a safety in the 3rd along with the TE but I would not give up on Trent. He was a rookie and showed that he has talent that needs experience to bring to fruition.
My take is Iutapiu in the 1st, Shipley or McCluster on the 2nd, safety and TE in the 3rd and BPA the rest of the way. I like Gilyard but in the 3rd round or later. I think he will be there.
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
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