Mike Brown, Brandon Marshall & Spending: Quality vs. Quantity
by Jake Liscow on Mar 9, 2010 4:32 AM EST
in Analysis
45 comments
Jay wrote yesterday an opinion and analytical piece concerning the Bengals spending practices and relative success in the past 10 years. Comments pointed out that some successful teams are high budget and some are low budget. In a capped era, it did not really matter all that much. There could be no New York Yankees of football. My argument, though, is that the quantity of money is not the important variable. As with all sports and business, where and how that money is spent is the crucial variable.
The inability to recognize the impact of a free agent like Brandon Marshall is a problem. The refusal to invest in players like Marshall that can impact the franchise for years is the real problem. Combined with the failure for the Bengals to successfully draft and develop wide receivers (remember Bennie Brazell, Reggie McNeil and Maurice Mann? Me niether), and this move just makes too much sense.
At 26 and performing at a Pro Bowl level, recording 100-catch seasons perenially, Brandon Marshall is a unique talent and opportunity for the Bengals organization. By some accounts, he's the sixth best receiver in the NFL, ranking just ahead of Chad Ochocinco. He could be the future #1 in Cincinnati for as many as 5 years, and could take an enormous amount of pressure off of Chad Ochocinco. Additionally, as a weapon to revitalize the passing game, this acquisition would provide much needed balance to Cincinnati's offense. Along with the investment in a true, dangerous, able-bodied tight end, Marshall could go miles toward improving a dismal offensive performance. The offensive line will inevitably get better as it stays together. All that's left is depth there. But adding a tight end, even one like Baker, and Marshall could coddle juggernaut status out of the Bengals' offense for the first time since 2005.
The Bengals have shown the willingness lately to sign guys like Vern Coles (who was the highest paid player on the team last year) and Ben Utecht. He shelled out mega-bucks to Antwan Odom, who has been an unstoppable force and game changer when healthy. The Bengals have also gone to great lengths to lock up guys like Andrew Whitworth, Carson Palmer, Domata Peko and Robert Geathers with long, lucrative contracts. There have been years that we've seen Warren Sapp or Shaun Rogers slip through our fingers, but to call Brown cheap isn't entirely accurate.
Maybe it's not so far fetched that the Bengals, then, would make a move for Brandon Marshall. Look at 'Vern Coles contract, front loaded as it may have been. The team recognized a need at wide receiver and addressed it by paying (the wrong player) a premium. If the front office has learned from its mistakes, it won't overpay for Terrell Owens or risk inconsistency with Antonio Bryant. It will spent that money on one of the best players in the league in Brandon Marshall and make an investment for the future of the franchise that will start paying dividends today.
We'll probably find out in the next few days how the front office feels about Marshall with guys like Owens and Bryant available for just money and no draft pick (and probably for less money). But if the last few years have taught us anything, it's that Mike Brown will spend money - we just have to hope he picks the right player this time.
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Agreed (I hope)
Recent moves have created what will later be recognized as a seismic shift in the AFC North: it’s becoming a division that (oddly enough) will require an explosive offense in order to win, whereas it’s traditionally been more of a “run-it-up-the-gut on O, hit-’em-in-the-mouth on D” kind of division (during the time that the Bengals were trying to succeed as an explosive-offense finesse team…go figure!).
Signing Marshall would do more than just “keep up with the Joneses” in answering the Boldin signing. It would put the rest of the division in the position of needing to spend: A.) money on offense to keep up; and B.) draft picks galore on defense to (try and) keep the Bengals offense in check.
Mike: Last time I attended a Bengals game, there was a huge handwritten banner hanging from the rafters:
SON OF A SAINT…A GM HE AIN’T!
Sign Brandon Marshall and you’ll go a LONG WAY towards erasing that legacy…and perhaps bringing some Lombardis (yes…plural!) to the Queen City.
Do it.
by TheWalrus1971 on Mar 9, 2010 6:22 AM EST up reply actions
I like Marshall too, but.............
All everyone sees is his talent and productivity and so do I. Yes, there is a big upside, but there is also a big downside. We would have to give up a 1st pick and probably a $40 million dollar, 5 year deal. Cool you say – he is worth it. Maybe so. The problem is that even in a contract year, when any reasonable person would be on his best behavior Marshall was a giant turd to his team, fans and teammates. He is also one step away from a big suspension unless he completely turns his attitude around. Even Henry, who most would agree truly seemed to change, took a couple of years and big punishments to do it. Can Marshall do it? Maybe, but do we want to take the chance? You need to ask yourself why there only seems to be a few teams who are even interested while others with more money and as big of a need seem hesitant to pull the trigger. We must ask what effect this move could have on Chad as well. High reward/high risk.
TO has proven that he can still play at a pretty high level at least for another year or so. Chad wants him here and I can see them working as a team down field. I don’t think Chad would mind sharing the #1 WR spot with TO. He will probably only cost 4-5 Mil and it would only be a 1 year commitment and we still have our #1 pick to use to improve the team even more. Good reward (high if we draft a good #1)/low risk.
I would take Marshall by a hair depending on what the actual numbers are but even as I write this I am hesitant – the same way every team in the NFL is. You cannot just look at Marshall’s on field numbers – you have to look a the overall effect he could have – both positive and negative. TO may not give you quite as much but he will give you a lot and if it means we can also get someone like Iutapi this gives you even more. So you have Marshall IF he can stay out of trouble or TO and, say Iutapi. It is a tough call. Hell we could possibly get Bryant and TO for the same price Marshall would demand.
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
Agreed
You guys could do a lot more with a lot less. I’m a T.O. hater (an Eagles fan) and I would agree that T.O. + your first rounder would be a lot safer. Bryant, even more so. This is not about what Marshall can do for you for the next 5 years. This is about IF Marshall will be around in 5 years. I saw an outside the lines about this guy and he has a deeply troubled past with several incidents of abuse. He doesn’t seem to be maturing either if his pblic persona has shown anything. The guys is as talented as they come, but there is a reason that Broncos are trying to cash in on hom now. They don’t want to be holding that grenade when it blows up.
P.S. God hates you.
I Agree
Marshall is not worth the draft pick and the dollars. In my opinion, the bigger concern on offense right now is Palmer; he had moments last season where he was his old self, but I was stunned by how lost and inept he looked at some crucial points. Receivers weren’t always getting separation, but he also made some throws that left everyone scratching their heads.
I know this subject has already been discussed, and it seems like the consensus is that a new receiver is the solution, but I think Carson’s mechanics and mental state are a mess. With the offense we run (we luv ya’ Brat!), if Palmer doesn’t get more time to set his feet and go through his reads, I’m worried that no matter who the new receiver is, we’re going to see a repeat of last year.
Get Iupati in round 1.
by Bengals NFL Champs on Mar 9, 2010 10:25 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree
Lupati + Bryant (or TO) > Brandon Marshall
In my humble opinion. Though I think that it might be close.
This is our year!
by Carsonorbust on Mar 9, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
As a caveat: Wouldn’t a receiver who can pretty much make a play on any ball in his zip code help out a QB’s confidence?
No offense to anyone Cincy had at receiver last year – and even Chad at times – but none of these guys were the type that any QB could trust in the sense where he could just throw it to a spot and he knew the WR would make a play on it.
I do agree about your notes on Carson’s overall psyche and hope that the addition of TO, Bryant and/or Marshall plus 6’6’’ Matt Jones (he will be good for a couple jump balls and red zone TD’s) will give him big bodies he can trust more at times than he could with Coles and the arena league TE’s they trotted out there. I also think Chase will be 100% healthy with his foot and ankle injuries and will also provide another big receiving option to help/bail Palmer out at times, thus making him much more comfortable.
by Cedric Benson Boat Party on Mar 9, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
Off-the-field problems are the only question for me with Marshall.
And I’m inclined to think Marvin Lewis is just the guy to deal with him. If Marshall doesn’t fit in with a locker room of Tank Johnson, Cedric Benson, Chad Ochocinco, Carson Palmer, I dunno where he’ll fit in.
I don’t see Bryant as a solution, I see him as Coles part 2. T.O. is obviously a stop gap. If Marshall gets his off-field crap together, he’s on track to be one of the best receivers in the league for the next 4-6 years.
No, no, no and no.
How do you deem T.O. and Bryant to be non-risks? If T.O. has proven anything, it’s that he has clearly lost a few steps and cannot be counted on for the numbers he put up in the past. Also, that he has some of the worst hands of any current or former elite WR.
Also, I find it highly implausible that Bryant’s agent will sign him to a one or two year deal given his recent injury issues. He is relatively young and is not looking for a one or two-year deal like T.O. who is on the verge of retirement.
Plus, Bryant has sucked for 90% of his career. Blame it on injuries ro changing teams, but the stats don’t lie. He had one very good season in 2008 (83 catches, 1200+ yards, 7 touchdowns). Every other year he has not been a difference maker.
Let us also not forget the T.O. has left scorched earth in every locker room he’s played in. His attitude is easily as big of a risk as Marshall’s, especially when some of Brandon’s problems can be blamed on youth and a lack of maturity. I like T.O. but you guys are talking about him as if he is a model teammate.
You make the deal for Marshall or you completely fail and do not get better next year than you were this past year. Neither Bryant nor T.O. is any better than what you had with Coles.
by Michael Finnigan on Mar 9, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Last time I attended a Bengals game I watched out inept offense slowly get pulled away from by the Jets. I have always been a Mike Brown hater until I saw last years Hard Knocks. Maybe I am a fool for believing that after a decade of being the deer in headlights that MB is starting to figure this role out. Maybe I am an even bigger fool for letting Hard Knocks leave the impression on me that maybe he really does care.
Michael, I think this a pretty short sighted stance......
He y I know you are a big fan. So am I. Yes MB has done some bone headed things and he is cheap but he cares more than you or I do. To us this is just entertainment to him it is his life. He cares. He just has the responsibility of keeping the ship upright though we may not agree with the way he does it or his failure to make some moves that we would like it is not because he doesn’t care. We made great strides in the last 2 years and won the division last year. All of those young players are coming back with another year of experience and with a few added pieces along with our D having another year under Zimmer we will be better next season. We lost a few key players as the season went along and just didn’t have the horse power to finish off the season with the Vikings away, Chargers away and Jets away at the end but I don’t think you would have predicted a div championship this time last year or did I. This is the best team we have had in probably 15 years and we should be optimistic and stop crying over the past.
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
I agree for the most part...
The best team in 15 years is what I’m unsure of. Defensively I don’t think anyone can argue that. We have a moron at O-coordinator though. Probably too much credit. I swear to God I could teach a pig to call better plays than Brat’s crap. We’re not going anywhere on offense until we get a decent play caller. That’s what is wrong with Carson, a lack of confidence in his O-coordinator. I’ve never wanted to be soo wrong…..
And I like the TO or Bryant plus 1st round draft pick idea
I really can't think of a better Bengals team, overall, for the last 15 years Don.
I do however think you are right on about Brat. I don’t think he is a bad coordinator really. I just think he has exhausted his input and it is time to bring someone in who has a different approach even if overall he isn’t better. He might do well other places where they lack some of the qualities he possesses. It has just been the same combination for too long and other teams can predict him too much.
I laugh when I hear posters say that they can predict the plays half of the time or more. They are a 50/50 pass/run team and if you just say run every time you get 50% right and when you throw in obvious passing situations (3rd and 22 yards) or running situations (4th and inches) if you can’t predict 60% you are an idiot. Yes play calling is important and keeping the other team guessing is important to a point but it is really all about execution. If everyone executes most plays are designed to succeed and will.
It is missed blocks, dropped passes, penalties, biting on double moves and missed routes that cause a team to fail for the most part. Hell Lombardi would practically tell the opponent that he was going to pull Kramer and put Hourning behind him, Thurston and Taylor and since they executed they would still pick up 5-7 yards. Everyone in the stadium knew Montana was going to the end zone in the SB. They executed and we just couldn’t stop it. It is 75% execution and 25% play calling IMO. If you have disciplined execution and talent the play call doesn’t need to be stellar. This is particularly true if your talent is in the Oline – this is why we need to continue to improve ours. Get Iutapi or someone as good as him every year or two and your Oline with a good D will keep you in almost every game and win more than they lose. Discipline + talent = winning.
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
Some rankings have both of our guards last year in the top 10.
Tackles too.
Williams and Mathis were very solid. So was Whitworth. Cook wasn’t as good as we thought (perhaps) and Smith should solidify RT. This is why I’m not as low on the OL as I was earlier in the off-season. These units always get better the longer they’re together.
Your Oline is never good enough
It is the single most important position group on any winning team. I really like Cook. He is smart and he plays with a mean streak. Put Iutapi on his left and Bobby on his right with WEhitt and Smith (heathy) as bookends and I will relax a bit but still look for another guy in the draft next year and the one after that. You never want to be in a position where if a guy goes down or retires that you do not have someone else coming in right behind him who will play up to the previous guys level. If your Oline is only good the rest of your team had better be great or they will be watching from the couch in January.
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
Whether or not he cares isn’t the question. If he didn’t care he would’ve sold the team a long time ago. Al Davis cares, too, you know. The thing these two jokers have in common is that their massive egos get in the way of any meaningful change that might lead to long term success. Doing it their way hasn’t worked, but that hasn’t deterred them one bit. For the most part, I like the team we have now, but let 2006 be a lesson to anyone who’s naieve enough to think Mike Brown is a changed man. Structurally, the organization is basically the same. He’s still the GM, still have the smallest scouting staff in the league, we’re still bottom feeders in free agency. In a league of parity, sometimes things come together for a poorly run organization and they make the playoffs. Once we see it a few years in a row, I think we can start talking about the ship being fixed. Until then, be very wary.
Jungle..
I considered his attitude early on and then I realized your gonna deal with an ego with any of the three… At first the idea of signing T.O. made me cringle but if I think there is a side that leans towards T.O it would be the show confidence by Chad and Carson.
Sign Owens & Bryant
These two for the price of Marshall. MB can look somewhat smart & have a few bucks in his pocket to sign the #1 draft pick. Marshall will break the bank on a long term deal. Owens & Bryant are short term, low risk high reward pickups. What happens when the CAP comes back & the Bengals are strapped with a few players eating up salary room with fat long term contracts? I am all for the Bengals going all-in for a two-three year run. Most professional sports franchises know it is about the now…The future for most teams can be bought anyway!
I think it's paramount that we sign Marshall
So therefore it won’t happen. I’m not a violent person, but if I could; I’d punch Mikey Boy in his head. He seriously needs to get a clue!
"Shiny. Let's be bad guys."
by KentuckianaBrowncoat on Mar 9, 2010 10:28 AM EST reply actions
This is one situation where I cut MB some slack.
When you think about it, this is kind of like the opposite of the Lions drafting Calvin Johnson. To that point, their fans were sick of them grabbing first-round WRs, and didn’t want any more…but CJ was so good that some Lions fans thought they should be stereotypically themselves and draft him anyway.
Likewise, we’re sick of Mike Brown being cautious, but this may be one situation where he should be stereotypically himself, because Marshall has a huge risk/reward factor. Sure, he could easily help save the offense…but he could just as easily decide he wants a new contract or a new team in a year or two, and he’d be back to goofing off at practices. Look at the sheer amount of money MB invested in players like Geathers, Coles, even Carson…would you say that they’ve been playing up to their contracts, lately? MB isn’t cheap, he’s given tons of cash to certain players, some of whom have earned it, and some of whom are still trying to earn it.
It’d be pretty convoluted, but I’d rather spend money on both TO and Bryant, instead of betting the farm on Marshall. I won’t complain if we get him, but it’s a massive gamble, and it could cripple us if it doesn’t work out.
As WDR pointed out, money in the NFL isn't guaranteed.
If we spread money out, try to work in incentives and a relatively low guaranteed salary, he won’t hurt us in the pocket book any more than Coles, who earned over 10M for his one year with the Bengals.
Great idea in theory. But too many FAs won’t look a contract that’s heavy on incentives like that.
For those who can't remember the uncapped FA rules, this link's for you.
I'm not saying the contract should be entirely incentive-based.
But I think the guaranteed money could be in the 15 mill dollar range.
Agree to a point
But in the NFL, eventually you have to take a risk. Especially when you have a franchise QB in the prime of his career. I see Bryant and TO as risks just as much as Marshall. Sure Marshall would be longer term, but I think his production is much more reliable than either TO or Bryant. He has succeeded with different QB’s, different systems, and against all kinds of defensive schemes.
Yes it is a risk, but with the team we have now, I think it is a good risk
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
Think about it this way.
The Bengals have a 3-4 year window in which to win a Superbowl before a lot of their talent hits an age wall. They’ll be one of the oldest teams in football. To make the most of those years, Marshall makes sense (to me anyway).
common sense doesn't exist in cincy..
Mikey loves the sound of windows closing.
by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Mar 9, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
We are one of the youngest teams in the league overall
There is not a team in the NFL who isn’t in that situation. Look at the Ravens and Steelers or Indy or the Pats. Nobody can look 3-4 years down the road. It is always a continuing process. Are you saying it is Palmer? If he is as good as we hope for the next 3-5 years that is all we can expect and if he isn’t we will find another guy to replace him.
I really don’t get this “window” stuff. As long as you draft well and don’t throw away your money on risky FAs you can turn things over and stay in it. All teams rise and fall and rise again. It is all about how high you can rise and how low you allow yourself to fall by losing on risky picks. Akili, Odell, Adams, I can go on and on. High risk guys who failed brought us to where we are. The best picks are not always the sexy ones but the meat and potatoes guys who come in and play well and establish a strong foundation to allow the “skill” guys to come in and perform.
Marshall can come in and play very well but it is not without major costs and risks. I just want good solid players go out and execute as a team. I do not want my teams prospects and a large % of the budget to be riding on some highly touted meathead’s decision to make a fool of himself and get suspended and be disruptive. Marshall has shown no signs that he has learned his lesson. If we get him I will be looking for the
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
I believe the “window” does exist to a certain extent. Carson is getting older and so is Ocho along with other players.. The window simply means we need to take advantage of some of our talent before they get too old. Obviously we expect the next QB to come in after Carson and lead our team just as well.. I get the continuity aspect. But if we are investing that much money in a QB, we might as well get talent around him before he retires as another superbowlless Bengals QB.
by 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME on Mar 9, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Of course we need to get someone in to take advantage of Carson
I don’t think anyone disagrees with that but Marshall is probably going to demand 45-50 mil for 5 years cost us another potential starter and lower the coffers to the point where extending our two star CBs might be too difficult. If Marshalls get everything right it would be ok I suppose but if he fails we will be set back 2 years. I say keep building brick by brick and bring in special talent where we need it without risking it all.
Yes we are possibly on the upside of a wave right now and I suppose that can be defined as a window but if we keep a very strong foundation the downside of the wave will not last 10-12 years and will never require a complete rebuilding like we just painfully experienced but rather well considered maintenance where we will still be pretty good even in the “off” years. We have a good example of that right here in the division with Pittsburg. Last year was a down year and they were still pretty good. I expect them to fix a few things and rise again if not his year then the next.
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
All of our young guys will be old and declining in 4-5 years.
We’re young now, and maybe we can keep the window open – but Marshall would be part of that. We’ll have to replace Chad soon enough. We don’t have a MLB of the future. We don’t have safeties of the future. We have a young offensive line that will be the best in the league in 2 years – maybe here Iutapi comes into play to replace Williams when he retires.
We have one promising young receiver, maybe two if you give Cosby some credit. Running back is pretty decent, but Cedric only has 3 more years in him with the sort of carries he gets.
CB is generally fine looking forward too.
But right now, the team is peaking. Adding a couple of major playmakers (Baker, who ranked in the top 15 of TEs, above Ben Watson in some statistical and scouting assessments last year, and Marshall) on offense addresses two of the Bengals’ most glaring deficiencies.
Plus, your argument about building through the draft could leave the team in eternal rebuilding.
When an opportunity to sign a talent like Marshall comes along, you have to take it. It frees up your draft board to really pick the best player available. Using established players to fill needs and drafting best available is my strategy.
If we get Marshall and..........
He is caught drunk in an alley with a 15 year old girls panties on his head and a gun in his hand he will be out of football and everyone here will be saying “I told you that he was too much of a risk”. It is likely? Well no. But is much more likely with him than with TO. Like I said his talent is great but his downside risk is also great. The guy is showing no contrition after basically thumbing his nose and throwing his team, team mates and the Denver fans under the bus.
"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"
We're Never Going To Get Marshall
It just makes too much sense. This is Jerome Simpson’s breakout year…argh !
sign owens
Sign Owens and keep working with the young wideouts they have,draft a O-LINEMAN in the 1st rd,go after BEN Watson in free agency & keep Coffman & draft a tightend in the 2nd round,and add to the D-Fence 3rd round on.
We are all leaving out the fact that we did sign Matt Jones… where is he fitting into this equation.. We cant have an infinite amount of receivers on the roster in how that we can get two or three more opposite Chad to actually catch a ball. I personally am a fan of drafting Gilyard. Maybe T.O. would be our best bet short term while we try to develop younger talent.
by Michael Rheault on Mar 9, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
Jones
At 6’6’’ 220, he is a big target and will make a few plays that no returning WR is capable of making. I’m not saying he is a freak or is the end all be all fix to the passing game, but his contributions will be a nice addition. The man did average 40-45 catches and 4-5 TDs a season in JXV.
by Cedric Benson Boat Party on Mar 9, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly..
Bryant has only posted more than 50 receptions twice in his 8 year career… His stats last year were comparable to those of Coles… What value would he add?
Not saying he would add much value, but when compared to Coles
defenses actually have to respect Bryant downfield and he has proven to be more of a big play guy. Outside of Ocho, the offense lacks a downfield guy. Also, at 6’1’’ 207, he is a bigger target target than the 5’11’’ 180 Coles.
by Cedric Benson Boat Party on Mar 9, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
true.
We definitely need a deep ball threat.. We will definitely add that element with the addition of any of the three. I think we are already on our way with Jones who my not run past people but who can definitely jump over them.
by Michael Rheault on Mar 9, 2010 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
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