Groundhog Day

by BeerRun on Sep 14, 2010 7:25 PM EDT

As ESPN’s Chris Berman reminded viewers during one of his Monday Night Football segments, it’s an old axiom in the NFL that, win or lose, you should throw out the results of week 1. I can’t say whether that’s a good idea for fans of any other team, but in the case of the Cincinnati Bengals, history says it’s the right approach.

To me, the really depressing thing about last Sunday’s game wasn’t that the Bengals looked like the football equivalent of the Keystone Kops, it was that they looked like the football equivalent of the Keystone Kops again. It wasn’t opening day, it was Groundhog Day.

We saw the same 53-Stooges act back in Marvin Lewis’ very first game in 2003, when a slow, confused and bungling Bengals squad got trampled 30-10 at home by the Denver Broncos. The next year’s opened at the Meadowlands wasn’t much better: the Bengals fell behind early, managed to creep back within 4 at the half, only to watch the Jets’ Donnie Abraham run a fumble back 41 yards for a touchdown. Sound familiar? And of course there was last year and the "Immaculate Deflection."

Even when the Bengals have managed to win their first game, it’s usually been in a lethargic manner. In ’05, a Cincinnati team that would end the season 11-5 opened against a Cleveland Browns squad destined for 6-10. The Bengals trailed 3-0 at the end of the first quarter before finally waking up and ripping off 27 points in the second and third quarters.

The same thing happened the following year, when they were behind the Kansas City Chiefs 3-0 after one, before going on to win 23-10. I have no idea why the Bengals so often come out flat on opening day, but they do. However, I do know that when they’ve taken a pie in the puss to start the season, they’ve usually bounced back in short order.

After looking completely hopeless against Denver on the 2003 opener, the Bengals traveled to the West Coast to play the Oakland Raiders. Cincinnati played like a team possessed in a venue in which they never seem to win, and fell only because of a last-second Sebastian Janikowski field goal.

After losing on the road to the Jets in 2004, the Bengals came home to edge the Miami Dolphins 16-13 on the strength of three Shayne Graham field goals and a 50-yard Brian Simmons pick-six. And last season, the loss to Denver sparked a four-game winning streak. Conversely, the one time the Bengals came out of the gate strong on opening day, it was a harbinger of disaster. In 2007, The Bengals opened against the Ravens at home. The Bengals jumped out to an early 9-0 lead in a brutal pummeling match that ended in a defense-fueled 27-20 Bengals win. The Bengals would go on to lose the next four straight.

I won’t say opening day is never indicative (see 2005 and 2008) but more often than not it’s been an outlier for the Bengals.

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It's amazing

how certainty turns to hope so quickly in this situation. Not that I disagree with the post; well thought-out and possibly dead-on. But I’m worried.

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by Pardon_My_French on Sep 14, 2010 8:47 PM EDT reply actions

Well, this is a fan site so I try to look for positives

Plenty of places to go for doom & gloom right now.

Honestly, I will be surprised if they are as bad against Baltimore as they were against the Pats. They simply have too much talent to be as bad as they looked in the first half Sunday. The big question for me is, how fast can they pull their heads out of their rear ends? If they can turn around and take it to the Ravens, they will still be in good shape; if they need the balance of September to figure out which is their arse and which is their elbow, then they will need to manufacture several miracle wins to get to the postseason.

by BeerRun on Sep 14, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Why am I worried?

Before the season it was pass protection which saw no line upgrades, but the shocker came on cut down day. Cut Hebert and Hodge and keep Coates and Skuta…it wasn’t just great D last year. Field position, kick returns punt coverage. Pundits said Bengals are SB bound with the arrival of Terrell. Great upgrade and I’m happy he’s here, but still have to protect Palmer. Three potential awesome return guys, but w/o the down field blocking, look out! They must see huge potential with Simpson not to get rid of him. He is one of our special teams aces now also huh.

by frickja on Sep 14, 2010 9:51 PM EDT reply actions

"taken a pie in the puss"

never heard that one before, interesting

by Rocket_Man_G on Sep 14, 2010 10:28 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t even know what that means but it’s hilarious!

by DonMegga on Sep 14, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I really can't argue but

it is possible that you are making too much of a team having a bad first day against a team the will in all likelyhood have 12 or more wins, at home on opening day. If they lost that way in Cleveland that would be different. Lets wait unitll bye week before we throw the team into the center ring of the circus. It could be appropriate in the future but there is still a lot of football to play and much of a very good team is back and there are at least a couple of really good additions. I don’t think they all lost all of their talent over the summer. It is a long season. I think they deserve at least 4 games or so before they get thrown under the bus. It is just possible that a good punch in the teeth is just what this team needed and the loss could have been as much a blessing as a curse.

Several very good teams lost to teams everyone thought they would beat. It is a long season and there is a lot of football to play. We were a game behind the Steelers and Ravens this time last year too.

"If we always agree, one of us is not necessary"

by JUNGLEJOHN on Sep 14, 2010 10:43 PM EDT reply actions

This Sunday is almost must win

Reasons for optimism:
Offensive skill positions very upgraded this year with Gresham + TO + Shipley – Coles
Cornerbacks very good, and Adam Jones is an upgrade there as well
Ochocinco and Benson are among the best at their positions
Carson Palmer is a pretty good player… although I don’t think he’s elite he’s certainly good enough to win a Super Bowl on the right team.

Reasons for not being optimistic
Bratkowski is (still) one of the worst, most predictable OCs in the NFL
Bengals defensive line is one of the worst in the NFL (see Football Outsiders for analysis on that)
Offensive line is mistake prone and often seems shaky
Linebackers disappear too often
Safeties have trouble in coverage and with tackling tight ends
Special teams can be quite unspecial
Schedule is brutal
Marvin Lewis is a bad game-day manager (from his awful challenges that always cost the team a timeout to the way at least once per year the team seemingly apologizes for being unprepared to play their game)

Going into last week I was thinking it would be a pretty big stretch for this team to make the playoffs in 2010. After seeing that awful first half on Sunday… for me that was groundhog day from the 1990s, not just groundhog day from the Marvin Lewis era. There was nothing there that didn’t happen in the Jeff Blake years!

Why is this Sunday must-win?

Only 14% of teams make the playoffs after starting 0-2.

Plus if they get blown out two in a row by two playoff teams, that’s groundhog day for sure. The good news is we’ll know pretty quickly if they were just pretenders all along, and then if it was all hype I can spend the rest of my fall and winter Sundays doing something else like most of the years since 1990.

by occams_tiger_teeth on Sep 14, 2010 11:32 PM EDT reply actions

Just Pre-Season?

It’s funny a couple of weeks ago when I was voicing my concerns about the team saying that our defense looked old and slow every one kept saying; Its just preseason! I saw this defense in trouble a mile away, but everyone kept saying, OHH NO, Zimmer is coaching this defense, we are a top 4 defense. Look at the stats, there is not much difference in stats between a #4 defense and a # 20 defense. I love the Bengals but sometimes all of the homerism makes me sick. A turd is a turd, you can call it what ever you want, but it is still a turd.

The Bengals fan base has been shortchanged for so long that we are happy as pigs in slop if we just have a winning record now and then. Mike Brown is sitting there going, look at all of these fools, all I have to do is throw them a crumb every once in a while and they all just eat it up. They are all just happy we made the playoffs, our expectations are so low that they are tickled just to be there, let alone win anything. I am sitting here getting rich off of these fools!

For other teams not winning a Super Bowl is a disappointment, to us winning the Super Bowl is just a fantasy. We would be happy just to get there and lose. Our two most celebrated teams in franchise history are losers.
I’m sorry, but that AFC North Championship doesn’t mean squat, do you think anyone in the rest of the country will remember who won the 2009 AFC North title in 5 years besides us? Coaches are fired, quarterbacks are traded if they can’t win the Super Bowl. We have had a coach in here for 8 years that hasn’t even won a playoff game. Who the hell else in the NFL would be able to keep their job that long without results? Look at Marty Shottenheimer in San Diego,he couldn’t win a playoff game so they brought in Norv Turner. Tony Dungy got ran out of Tampa because he couldn’t win a Super Bowl. Donovan McNabb…. Should I go on? Carson Palmer hasn’t even won a playoff game and coaches are frigging bringing in rookie quarterbacks and going to the championship game. Joe Flacco a division II quarter back had more playoff wins his rookie season than our heisman trophy winning quarterback. Something is seriously wrong here.

The only teams we can beat with a winning record are the Steelers and the Ravens and that is because we play them twice every year and we know them so well. We can’t win on the west coast, we can’t win in New York. We can’t win on prime time television and we can’t win when it matters most. Get someone in here that can get it done!

Now, let me hear all of the criticism from all of the blind homerists who refuse to look at the truth. If I was a radio personality saying the same things everyone would nod their head and say, yeah..your right…, but because I am just an average fan who see’s things for what they really are, I will be called an idiot. That is how the company men do it over at cincinnatibengals.com.

They are selling you lies!

by D-Day77 on Sep 15, 2010 1:20 AM EDT reply actions

No...

We won’t call you an idiot because you’re "just an average fan," we’ll call you an idiot because they’ve played 1 game of a 16 game season. That means they have the potential to go 15-1. How many Colts fans do you think are freaking out? In conclusion, calm down, it’s one game, you’re an idiot.

We could also call you an idiot for putting any stock into the preseason at all, because it is useless, pointless, and absurd to do so. Again looking at the Colts, they rarely win preseason game, but that doesn’t seem to be a problem. So again, you’re an idiot.

by MrMcLargeHuge on Sep 15, 2010 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Colts are used to winning

For the Bengals it’s a fluke occurrence. Their fans optimism is reality based.

by occams_tiger_teeth on Sep 15, 2010 11:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Hell if you don't believe in your team

become a fan of someone else

Is this is to all the people who are “fans” of the Bengals but just don’t believe (or even hope)… that’s not being a real fan

by Oregonbengalsfan on Sep 15, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

You seem to be somewhat of a conspiracy theorist with that “they are selling you lies” line along with the “look at all of those fools” line, like Mike Brown has an evil plan to just tease us with all the talent, but not the results. And for that, you are most definitely an idiot.

by MrMcLargeHuge on Sep 15, 2010 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions

you're right

The rot starts at the top with Mike Brown. He doesn’t know jack about winning football and cares more about the family wallet. Full stop.

by occams_tiger_teeth on Sep 15, 2010 11:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Uhh....

Unfortunately, we can’t do anything about the Mike Brown situation. He’s terrible. Your right on most of your points. If I ever become a Billionaire, I promise I will buy the Bengals however unlikely. The point is you have to focus on the positives and potential. If a team keeps hearing how bad or how much they suck, it wears on them. The power of positive thinking does wonders.

The Bengals got whipped by the Pats, but they came out in the second half and continued to play. This shows a lot about the character of the team. You can bring them down, but you won’t break them. We need to realize that a season is about progress. They need to continue to improve each and every week. If they can do this then they’ll reach their potential, a playoff win. You need to look at the glass being half-full, being a Bengals fan. Otherwise, I suggest you get on TED.com and check out this lecture by Matthieu Ricard on the habits of happiness.

by DonMegga on Sep 15, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

No...

We won’t call you an idiot because you’re “just an average fan,” we’ll call you an idiot because they’ve played 1 game of a 16 game season. That means they have the potential to go 15-1. How many Colts fans do you think are freaking out? In conclusion, calm down, it’s one game, you’re an idiot.

by MrMcLargeHuge on Sep 15, 2010 9:06 AM EDT reply actions