Palmer for QB

I believe that Palmer will lead us to our 3rd play-off appearance this year. I believe he will get at least one play-off win. I still hold out hope that we will win the Super bowl, but even if we do not I do not see a better QB who is available to lead us.

Since 1998, there have been 34 QBs taken in the first round.  Six of them have a better career rating than Palmer.  These are *Aaron Rodgers, Rivers, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, *Pennington and *Culpepper.   Thirteen are Busts because they did not last with their original teams nor are they starting anywhere else. These are Leaf,* McNown, #Akili Smith, Couch, Harrington, Carr, *Grossman, *Boller, *Leftwich, *Losman, Leinert, *Quinn, and Russell. One is #Palmer. The rest fall into three categories:  undetermined, potential franchise QBs, or they are getting a second chance with another team. I list undetermined as Bradford, *Tebow, Stafford, Sanchez, *Freeman, Alex Smith, and Vince Young. McNabb, *Campbell, Cutler, and Vick are getting a second chance, while *Flacco, Ryan, and Eli Manning seem to be franchise QBs who do not have a career rating higher than Palmer does. Incidentally, Plamer’s rating last year was better than Ryan’s but below Flacco and Manning. 

I admit there are other ways to get a QB. Of the 15 QB’s who had a better rating than Palmer last year, 7 were not drafted in the first round, but these QBs have a much lower success rate than the 16% that were drafted in the first round and were better than Palmer.  

Of the 9 who are better for their career or were better last year, 2 are out of the league, and 6 were unavailable when the Bengals drafted that year. The only QBs we missed out on that would still be on the team is Aaron Rodgers, a player that almost every team missed on, and Flacco, whose career rating is lower than Palmer’s, his rating this year is lower than Palmer’s and he threw 4 picks against Cincinnati.

Many people on this board are saying we should drop Palmer and draft someone who is better next year. This seems simple but as we see above QB’s who are better than Palmer are rare. Further, to drop Palmer would probably also mean we lose Marvin Lewis.  That puts drafting the QB of the future into the hands of one Mike Brown who brought us such winners as David Klinger and Akili Smith, who had the worst rating of the QBs drafted in the first round in the last 14 years. Even with a decent talent evaluator, there is only a 6% chance of drafting a QB who is better than Palmer is.  

Some would argue that Palmer is done. He is old, beat up and scared.

He is old by league standards but not by QB standards. Peyton Manning did not have his first season with a QB rating over 100 until his 7th season as a starter.  Palmer is currently in his 7th year as a starter. Further, there is a parallel in records a s a starter between Manning and Palmer Manning went 13-3 in his second year just as Palmer went 11-5. The Colts then slipped to 6-10 2 years later, as the Bengals went 4-11-1 3 years later. The Colts were 10-6 the next year then has had perennial 12 win seasons since. I am not saying that Palmer is Manning or that the Bengals are sure to mirror their success, but so far, even despite our offense we are very much in the play-off picture.

He has been beat up; however, I rewatched the preseason highlight footage from this year, and I do not think he is permanently damaged. Palmer was crisp. He threw the deep ball well to Owens against Philadelphia.  He was accurate on short passes. He completed 70% of his passes. Granted he was not pressured much but that is not completely under his control.

I do think that Palmer is scared, but I think that can be overcome. I believe that late last season Carson lost faith in his receivers except Chad. That led to poor throws and poor decisions. This year, I think Carson started ok against NE. Once NE dropped their defense a bit in the second half, Carson got into a rhythm and started hitting the open receiver. Against Baltimore, he felt pressure and his receivers began to drop the ball again. I believe he immediately reverted to his thought process at the end of last season. I believe this is something he has to work through, but I believe he will be back.

The big complaint against Palmer is that he has not won a play-off game. Since Palmer became a starter, 20 other QBs have won a play-off game. It is frustrating that 8 of those QB’s have entered the league since Palmer, especially since 4 of them were available to us. These are Flacco, who Carson Palmer regularly beats, Tony Romo, who just got his first win last season, Rex Grossman, who is available if we want him (any takers?) and David Garrard (who I believe is available for a straight up trade, any takers?) 

I believe that Palmer will lead us to our 3rd play-off appearance this year. I believe he will get at least one play-off win. I still hold out hope that we will win the Super bowl, but even if we do not I do not see a better QB who is available to lead us.