A Tale of Two Analyses

by BeerRun on Sep 29, 2010 8:53 PM EDT

So I get home from work today, fire up the innertubes, make the rounds, and what do I find? Two items of note.

First, there's The Enquirer's Paul Daugherty taking his nickname of "Doc" just a bit too literally.

I asked around Monday. Did you see the game? What did you think? I checked in with two people close to the situation, whose opinions I trust. Unsolicited, I got an e-mail from a third person, a former pro baseball catcher who, like Palmer, had an elbow injury he declined to have fixed surgically.

That's news to the other three experts. One said he was "shocked" at how poorly Palmer threw Sunday. He suggested that Palmer threw crisply in July and August, because he'd taken time off before camp. Now that Nine has thrown consistently for nearly three months, the elbow is barking or lacks strength. If that's the case, Cincinnati's season just got a whole lot longer.

The old catcher with the same injury said that made sense. "If I didn't get a day off after every two or three starts, that's when it would bother me the most," he wrote. "For (Palmer), I would think the situation is worse."

The catcher said Palmer's elbow is constantly cooling down and warming up. He suggested it might never be fully loose. "Definitely a bad situation," he said.

Really, Paul? You're going to pull a Vicks Formula 44 on us? This is Bengals-fan-forum level stuff. "Hey, I know a guy who's dad's cousin hurt his elbow and his doctor said Carson is screwed!"

But perhaps I'm being too tough on Bengals fan forums. As it turns out, there are fans willing to put in the hard time to actually, y'know, study the game, break plays down and try to suss out what's really going on.

So here’s the breakdown of the 18 incompletions by "blame":

Carson: 6

Oline: 5 (Interception)

Miscommunication: 1 (Interception)

Good D/Pass interference: 4

WR/TE dropped/slipped: 2

Further, Carson was an astounding 18 for 20 when he got the time to step into his throws and make a play.

I encourage everyone, whether you’re a Carson "hater" or Carson "apologist" to not just criticize or defend blindly, and watch the tape and analyze it fully. I had one opinion after watching the game, and I have a much different one now after analyzing the tape. Lots of opinions flying around on both sides that aren’t getting a detailed look at what’s really going on.

What he said. While I happen to be in the "it's the o-line's fault" faction, there are a lot of moving parts involved, and I appreciate anyone who stops to examine the facts versus citing unsolicited emails from anonymous old baseball players. So props to Bengals1181, and boo to Doc. Internet 1, traditional media zip. Again.

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Comments

What % of incompletions is the average?

If you take away drops, Oline problems, miscommunication and good D, then what quarterback wouldn’t complete 70%+? Derek Anderson maybe? I don’t think Palmer is the problem, but that’s a weak argument you got there.

by New Red Machine on Sep 29, 2010 10:28 PM EDT reply actions

Do you mean 14/20

By what I’m reading, you said that Carson was to blame for at least 6 passes. Where did you get 18/20?

by The Dealio on Sep 29, 2010 10:47 PM EDT reply actions

he is taking away the incomplete passes

Carson was 18-20 when he had time to throw and could step into his throw

by Diesel2405 on Sep 29, 2010 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions

In reality he was 18-37 or something like that

by Diesel2405 on Sep 29, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Two things are evident from this analysis

1. Palmer is as good as it gets when he has time to step into his throws.

2. Palmer is as bad as it gets when he’s being rushed and forced to improvise. This has always been my knock on him. You watch QBs on a weekly basis like Rodgers, Brees and Ben R. avoid a pass rush, roll to the right and hit an open receiver for a big gain. That’s not the case with Palmer. He has no feel in the pocket, no ability to sense the rush and make a play.

So while I agree that the offensive line needs to play better in order to get the best out of Palmer, I do think some of the blame has to be on Palmer’s poor pocket sense.

by Mexal on Sep 30, 2010 5:21 AM EDT reply actions

Well, he is being forced to 'improvise' close to 50% of the time based on the above

according to the above he was pressured on 46% of his drop backs. I’m sure the rate was similar versus the Ravens and much smaller versus NE. Look at any QB in the NFL, if they have to deal with pressure on 46% of the drop backs, there is going to be trouble for the passing game, especially for a team with prototypical pocket passer – including Brady, Peyton and Rivers.

Yes, there are a lot of moving variables including both O and D play calls, down and distance, checks and audibles at the LOS, post snap decision making an game score, but at the end of the day, the team can’t have near 50% of its dropbacks resulting in pressure.

by Cedric Benson Boat Party on Sep 30, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

palmer has never been john elway

when was the last time he completed a mid to long pass while on the run. even on the move.

palmer has to set up before he throws. he’s a solid pocket passer, always has been. he needs his pocket. without it, he’s not the same qb.

"wherever Brad St. Louis is and Shayne Graham is about to be." -R.F. Mehl

by palewook on Sep 30, 2010 6:52 AM EDT reply actions

While I agree Palmer is not mainly to blame for the passing game's woes,

I think he does have some physical limitations not present before he hurt his elbow. I saw him in the Orange Bowl in 2003 (sat in back of Palamalu’s parents). I was amazed by his arm strength. He could just flick his wrist and the ball exploded out his hand. He showed the same strength until he hurt his knee. He adapted with new mechanics in 2006 and 2007 and arm strength seemed the same. Since his elbow injury he not only had to change his mechanics but there is a noticeable decrease in velocity (my opinion based on his throws to out pattern) but his mechanics have changed again (affecting his accuracy).

by featherman on Sep 30, 2010 7:34 AM EDT reply actions

ONE QUESTION

Why Did they call the Bengals the cardiac cats ???

by Makin Edwards on Sep 30, 2010 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

Last year we weren't winning as easily as this year

Good Point

It must be inordinately taxing to be such a boob. ~ The Brain

by jim0ijk on Sep 30, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not convinced with this tale of the tape

Fan’s film study of games consist of replaying the televised game and rewinding. Whereas NFL film study consists of game film being shown from multiple angles during the game to see where and when the pressure takes place. Also defensive and offensive alignment shifts, the list goes on.

All I’m trying to say is that while this “in-depth” analysis might be flawed based on how the game was shown. It’s a good start but I’m not going to really look at these “numbers” and argue any points.

But my view on Carson hasn’t changed, he is a good QB but not an elite one. I think there is something wrong with him whether physically or mentally. I also do believe that our O-line needs to play a lot better. The comparisons of Carson to Drew Bledsoe isn’t far off.

by sgiridharan1982 on Sep 30, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions