Skepticism Remains: Why The "Easy Schedule" Argument Is Flawed
by Josh Kirkendall on Oct 31, 2011 2:39 PM EDT
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Andrew Perloff of Sports Illustrated is doing his best to dampen the spirits of Bengals fans by saying people shouldn't buy into the Cincinnati Bengals. Not that we're completely heartbroken by it, but there's a part of us that understands where the perspective comes from. Because how much does one really understand this team unless you watch the games and disassociate yourself from the existing (and outdated) talking points that apparently people believe still strengthen arguments? Let's M.C. Hammer this and break it down.
Perloff writes:
They (the Bengals) have really had a great schedule... It’s a function of schedule. You really have to see how they are against their divisional rivals, and in this case, they have really tough divisions. So I feel bad, but no, they’re not for real.
This has been one of the hottest talking points recently by many, trying to find some justification for Cincinnati's 5-2 record this year.
Yet where is the condemnation of Pittsburgh's easy schedule?
Sure they convincingly beat the New England Patriots on Sunday, but Pittsburgh was obliterated by the Ravens to open the season.
They beat the same Seattle Seahawks team the Bengals beat. The Steelers were losing to the Colts heading into the fourth quarter and needed a Troy Polamalu 16-yard fumble return and two Sean Suisham field goals, including a 38-yard field goal as time expired, to beat the Colts by three points. Pittsburgh took a 17-3 lead into half time against the Jacksonville Jaguars, nearly losing the game in the second half and escaping with a four-point win. Cincinnati eventually beat the Colts and Jaguars by double-digits. Shall we emphasize that Houston, albeit a division-leader, beat the Steelers in week four and Pittsburgh's 12-point win over the now 1-6 Arizona Cardinals.
The Bengals 5-2 record are the only one's victims to the argument of having an easy schedule. After destroying Pittsburgh during the regular season opener, Baltimore lost by 13 points to the Tennessee Titans and then blew out the St. Louis Rams, Houston Texans and needed to put together a franchise record comeback to beat the Arizona Cardinals. And that was after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
And before Pittsburgh's win over the Patriots on Sunday -- to give them a nice even seven games like the Bengals and Ravens -- their opponent's winning percentage dips to .365.
| Played opponent's records through week eight | |||
| W | L | Win % | |
| Cincinnati | 20 | 31 | .392 |
| Steelers | 24 | 35 | .407 |
| Ravens | 23 | 29 | .442 |
Perloff continues:
Andy Dalton really hasn’t had to do that much as a rookie quarterback.
We're not sure if that's a rip against Andy Dalton or praise for Jay Gruden's ability to adapt the offensive gameplan based on the personnel. True. Andy Dalton isn't being asked to pass block, hold the football during field goal attempts or participate on kickoff teams (that lazy-ass). But let's see. Bengals are tied with Buffalo at 20 and only 1:48 remaining in the game. Andy Dalton completes two of three passes for 32 yards and dives out of bounds on third and three, converting a critical third down that led to Brian Leonard's production that led to Mike Nugent's game-winning 43-yard field goal.
Down by four points against the Jacksonville Jaguars with 3:53 remaining in the game, the Bengals elect to go for it on fourth-and-six. Dalton completes a nine-yard pass to Jermaine Gresham, converting the first down. An eight yard pass two plays later led to Bernard Scott's touchdown run that gave Cincinnati the win.
Perhaps 400-yard passing games during 10-point losses would suggest a more productive quarterback to those searching for a reason, anything, to explain Cincinnati's five wins this year. And really. Wasn't the whole praise for the Steelers early in Ben Roethlisberger's career about defense and the running game?
We can (and should) credit the defense for stopping opposing offenses, special teams for being special but Andy Dalton is the one making those throws during press-packed situations and he's doing it like a cagey veteran that's thriving under pressure.
Two games against Baltimore. Two games against Pittsburgh. Teams that absolutely own rookie quarterbacks.
Truth be told both teams are a combined 0-1 against rookie quarterbacks this year, with Baltimore's 12-7 loss to Blaine Gabbert's Jacksonville Jaguars being the culprit. Suppose we just take that at face value? And if Perloff is speaking on a matter of historical accuracy, then we should be fair and point out that the Bengals have won nine of the previous 13 meetings against the Baltimore Ravens. And during seasons that the Bengals have posted a winning record, they're 3-1 in the regular season against the Pittsburgh Steelers. OK, that might be a stretch. Pittsburgh has historically owned us. I've admitted that for years.
Honestly I'm not going into a blind homerist rage. My point is that there's way too many faults in growing skepticism with Cincinnati's success this year. The schedule has been easy, but it's been easy for everyone in the division. And aren't teams often measured on how well they play against teams they should beat as much as they perform against some of the league's better teams? Maybe it's because Pittsburgh and Baltimore are expected to be successful whereas the Bengals weren't, and thus the application of an argument that should be applied to everyone is only handwrapped to the team that others believe don't belong.
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Any Given Sunday
destroys easys schedule arguement
They have Benson
They are a pro team they should be competitive every year
Blaming the schedule is a lto easier than admitting they were wrong in the preseason.
I’ll admit it: I was wrong. I had this team pegged in the basement of the league along with Perloff and all the other analysts. I thought Dalton was in over his head and destined to be a Gradkowski-esque backup eventually. But I’ve watched every snap of every game and I’m thoroughly convinced.
I’ll agree with Perloff in that I’m not sure this is a playoff team. There are still a lot of holes and higher echelon teams like Pittsburgh and Houston will expose them. We have a blowout loss or two ahead of us this season…but that’s life in the NFL. THe bottom line is this team is setup for for at WORST an 8-8 season and coudl easily reach 9 or 10 wins which could squeak them into the playoffs. If you had told me that in August I would have laughed you out of the room. 5 wins is 4 wins more than I anticipated seeing this year, so the rest is all gravy.
I am with you,
I didnt expect the Bengals to be a disater this year, and I khnew we had a somewhat favorable schedule in the first half, but if someone had told me going into the Pitt and Balt games that they would have playoff implications and that we would have a decent chance of winning them.. Id have bet against it.
Its really great to be having such an entertaining and fun season when in reality we are supposed to be just looking to next year.
they are pros
they should be competitive every year.
Absolutely
For a team predicted to go 0-16, how can they credit the easy schedule? I guess the experts didn’t look at the schedule when they made the predictions.
There are still a lot of holes and higher echelon teams like Pittsburgh and Houston will expose them.
I’m assuming that you mean Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but sure. I think that if you’re talking about QB play, you have to put Dalton above Flacco at this point this season. Of course they have Rice, which would equal things out. I think it could be a home and home split. Everything else seems to be a wash pretty much (if you focus on talent and not star power). Then there’s Pittsburgh. I watched that Texans-Squealers game and Rothlesburger was on his back every play. Ravens, I can only assume the same thing since I didn’t watch, but a romp like that against that defense must have been due to opening the flood gates on the line. If you throw a decent pass rush at that line, they will crumble. New England doesn’t have that in their front 7. The Bengals do. I like the odds there. A lot.
Try not to take the above message too seriously.
The Bengals have not only proved the “experts” wrong, despite the record of teams played, they have won in ways and places that they have not won in a long time (on the west coast, against teams they’ve lost too for years, showing incredible resilience in comeback wins, ect…) – that speaks greater volumes than the record of their opposition.
About the Newton vs Dalton argument, I do feel that people aren’t factoring in the role the D has played. Does anyone really think Dalton would be 5-2 if he played with the Carolina D?? Does anyone really think Newton would be 2-6 if Carolina had Cincy’s D?? So, as much as I love Dalton, I think comparing him to Newton simply in terms of win-losses is completely inaccurate.
RE: Newton vs. Dalton
Understood. But I would also argue that Dalton has put the Bengals into a position to win just as much as the defense. Early scores enables the defense to focus more against the pass and late game drives converting third and fourth downs are huge. Can’t disregard that either.
Though Newton is an impressive beast.
Managing Editor at CincyJungle.com -- SB Nation Cincinnati Bengals blog.
by Josh Kirkendall on Oct 31, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I don’t want to discredit Dalton at all – he’s been wonderful. I’m very very impressed… I just think that people who only look at W-L often forget to take into account other factors like strength of schedule and other facets of the team such as D, special teams, and offense. I’m excited to see how Dalton does the next 6 weeks as they face real adversity and get into the meat of the schedule.
What does Carolina's D have to do with the 50 picks Cam has thrown.......
Tired of the Cam comparison….He is just a better Vince Young…period…I know ESPN is dying for this guy to be great….Cam is the sexier qb over the red headed step child…..Dalton is a better QB period…..
by ticalcaldwell on Oct 31, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously?
Let me first stating that I am a Bengals fan and not a Carolina (or Cam Newton) fan. But the fact is that Newton (9) has only 2 more pics than Dalton (7) – and he’s played in one more game than Dalton b/c Carolina has yet to have a bye week (plus the extra half game when Dalton left injured). Newton has passed the ball 287 times with an interception every 31.9 pass attempts. Dalton has passed the ball 218 times with an interception every 31.1 pass attempts. Newton also has the higher QB rating. I am NOT saying that Newton is a better QB, but your statement about Newton’s INTs just is not accurate.
Of course ESPN gives more press to Newton – that comes with being the #1 pick rather than the #3 pick on a team regularly (and often unfairly) overlooked by ESPN.
As for the role of the Defense, Carolina has a weak D, so they are often playing from behind forcing Newton to pass more (he’s thrown the ball 69 times more than Dalton as he’s had to try and overcome significant deficits late in games). Cincinnati’s D, which is one of the best in the NFL) has kept a lot of pressure off Dalton and done remakably well defending teams especially around the goal line. I think it’s absurd to think that the D doesn’t play a role when comparing wins-losses.
I am glad we have Dalton, and wouldn’t trade him. As to who the better QB truly is, only the next several years and months can answer that. Please at least have some idea what you are talking about before posting though.
Newton is averaging 1.5 turnovers per game, Dalton 1.2.
In Carolina’s 2 wins he is 36-57 for 414 yards and 2 TD passing, and 86 yards rushing and 1 TD. He also has 0 turnovers. 63.2% completion percentage. 96 QB rating.
In Carolina’s 5 losses, he is 138-230 for 1979 yards, 9 TD and 9 INT, with 233 rushing yards, 6 TD, and 3 fumbles. 60% completion percentage. 85 QB Rating.
In Dalton’s 5 wins he is 92-145 for 990 yards, 7 TD and 5 INT, with 1 rushing TD. 63.4% completion percentage. 85 QB Rating.
In Dalton’s 2 losses he is 44-73 for 489 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT, for a 60% completion percentage. 77.9 QB RAting.
Change gone come mane! Trust me! Cause i Bleed tigerblood!--Jerome Simpson
In their wins they've actually been fairly similar.
But Newton dominates in those games that his team loses.
Change gone come mane! Trust me! Cause i Bleed tigerblood!--Jerome Simpson
Of course Dalton attempts about 10 passes less per game than Newton.
Tack on an extra 70 pass attempts to Dalton, you probably get about another 500 yards and a few TDs.
Change gone come mane! Trust me! Cause i Bleed tigerblood!--Jerome Simpson
Really Though
Who cares?? It doesn’t matter if Cam is a better statistical quarterback that puts up monstrous numbers. Cam is a great quarterback but it takes a team to win. The Bengals showed that yesterday by showing up in all 3 phases of the game. That is how you win consistently not with just a quarterback with amazing talent but a team that has a very good D, very good special teams and an offense that can keep the D fresh, score enough points to win and not turn the ball over.
Cam Newton is a salary timebomb
His play is through the roof and he could end up being one of the best QB’s in the game…and you KNOW he’s going to be demanding a contract extension by about halfway through next year. You have to admire the guy’s play, but dont’ forget the character concerns surrounding him coming out of college. I haven’t seen anything that puts those to rest yet. He still mugs for the cameras, he’s a total publicity hound. The moment any member of his entourage starts whispering in his ear that he deserves a raise (which should be starting just about the time he gets ROTY) Carolina is going to be in for a decade’s worth of headaches and salary cap woes. You foresee Dalton causing any of those kinds of problems?
I do temper my hopes with recognition of the schedule
that said, it’s bullshit to always fall back on that argument as “proof” that the Bengals are shit (or whatever). In 2009, the Bengals didn’t beat the easy teams, so they must have really sucked. Well, now we are beating them… so, let’s drag out that canard.
The Bengals have rookies and youngsters in the offense and they have looked iff at times against fair to middling teams. That’s true. But they are progressing and seem to be adding features to their repertoire. Additionally, the ST (huber and nugent) are still solid and the defense is doing what they do, and really have done for three years, when healthy.
"Suck for Luck"? Forget that
2010 was "Schemin’ for Green and Faultin’ for Dalton."
Not Flawed...
Agreed that due to historical success, the Ravens and Steelers aren’t called out for the same argument which certainly applies to them. But that doesn’t mean the argument against us is flawed. We have played a really easy schedule. My point of disconnect though is the assumption that once our schedule gets a bit tougher, we’ll automatically lose every game. Just about any stat can be massaged to either side of any argument.
Could they get annihilated in the division? Sure. Could they run the table in the division? I think so! NFL games are harder to predict than lottery numbers. I’ll win the Powerball twice before I go 16/16 on any given weekend. The nice thing is there’s no NFL BCS. It will be settled on the field. The infinite ‘A beat B crushed C dominated D obliterated A’ discussion really has no place in the NFL in my opinion.
All I know is I was excited as hell anyway, but being 5-2 just takes it to an entirely new level. I’ve always anticipated the next Bengals game, but this year there’s just something special. A Sunday Bengals beat down used to be my pre-Monday, the start of the suck to come for the next 5 days. But this year, Monday is the new Monday! BartScott.mp3
Any Given Sunday Effect always is in play
Jags beat the Ravens
Rams beat the Saints.
Ravens about lost again to the 1-5 Cardinals.
Colts look like they had their spirits broken last week so they might be out of sundays for this year…
But any team can win…. Either with O with D or with some ST magic…
(now do some teams have a better chance than others they sure do…)
But if the 0-7 rams who have the NFLs toughest schedule can beat the Saints with a backup QB… Well you have to question how weak the rams truely are or if injuries and bad breaks made their record.
What was it a couple years ago we lost to the 0-15 dolphins? or someone lost to the phins late in the season when they were 0-14/0-15
And always SoS is based on last years records. @ the beginning everyone knows the NFCW is a joke but the AFCS was tough last year.
by Bengalsfan024 on Oct 31, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Sadly, Most Analysts Can't Be Bothered By Facts
Computers are soulless creatures of non-emotion who don’t mind admitting when they get things wrong— which is why something like Jeff Sagarin’s ratings are the type of things to consult at a time like this. What do we see?
Go here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl11.htm
Net, the Bengals rank above both the Steelers and the Ravens— mostly due to strength of schedule— yes, our schedule is weak (26th)— but the Steelers and Ravens are even weaker (28th and 29th)— and the Steeler’s schedule INCLUDES the Patriots. To further demolish his argument, the Bills have the 15th hardest schedule.
When folks say things like Perloff, they need to back it up with something other than just their opinion. Note, Seattle was a miserable team last year— but they’re much better at home (5-3 last year), and dismantled the Saints at that same venue. Net, the Bengals have something to prove…but other than the Packers, so does everyone else in the NFL. Note that our upcoming foes, the Titans, so far have the 2nd weakest schedule— so I guess we’ll get to see which “overrated” team is most “for-real.”
One of the best Cincy Jungle posts in a while
And that’s coming from a guy who not only reads, but loves posts every day. You hit every point spot on. Even if the schedule has been on the weaker side (none of us have ever claimed it wasn’t), the sheer difference between the Bengal’s current state and the preseason expectations are staggering. For a team to win five of seven games (AND lose the other two by a combined seven points!) against any NFL opponent after being projected by most to post something like 4-12, is astounding.
by C.Reid-D on Oct 31, 2011 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
As I’ve posted many times on the board, the “strength of schedule” argument is one of the weakest arguments out there. The reality is this: whether our schedule is weak, strong or average, it all comes down to Ws—and Dalton is getting us Ws (goffchile takes Tebow pose)
This year, because it’s a tight race against “weaker” divisions, the Ws that are going to count are going to be between Nov. 13 and Dec. 4. If we at least split, we are in good shape, if we win 3 out of 4 we are in the drivers seat.
But the most important thing
even with the “easy” games… you have to win them to keep pace in this division and so far we have done just that…. Ravens browns steelers all have 14 of 14 games the same as us. only 2 different being where we placed last year.
(one of those last place teams is in first place now)
by Bengalsfan024 on Oct 31, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
We have a team that has exceeded all of our expectations, lets be happy with that
That we are even being in the discussion about playoffs is a good thing. We are in a great position relatively speaking. I am not even allowing the playoffs into my mind set. I really don’t expect it. Could it happen – yea, I suppose but I would be a greater surprise to me than the season has been so far.If we can’t beat the Titans we probably can’t beat the Steelers or Ravens. I am taking it one game at a time and enjoying every good thing that happens while trying not to anticipate that we might be something we may not be – yet.
We coupld easily be 7-0 but we could also easily be 3-4 or even 2-5. He have not won anything decisively. Does anyone here really think we are good enough to expect to beat anyone? I certainly don’t. We are getting there – but we aren’t there yet. I actually see next year as our break out year. We are a few players short of the top 10. Lets ust enjoy what we have and not get carried away. Now, if we beat the Titans and then the Steelers at home then I will reappraise the situation.
"If we always agree, one of us is not necessary"
My feelings exactly
I love this team and the direction it’s headed in but I’m still a bit skeptical this year. I hope we beat all of our division rivals but I can’t say I expect it…
by SCbengalsfan on Oct 31, 2011 7:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Skeptic #2
I’ve been impressed with the gusty wins the Bengals have pulled off but I tend to agree the record IS a result of the schedule. The two teams they need to beat at looming on the horizon. Take care of that business and I will consider them playoff caliber. But still think must win division or at least 10 games to do that. Which would be a big factor to rebuilding a quality team capable of winning a Superbowl.
They might want to try watching the games
before they post crap like this. I’ve read on at least three sites today how Brandon Tate and Adam Jones ran back punts for scores. They just skim through the bylines and let their preconcieved ideas guide their writings. The Steelers win and the Bungels bungle.
Personally I couldn’t care less what the talking heads are saying. I’m just enjoing the Hell out of watching this team. WHO DEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Josh - excellent article
As another poster mentioned, this is not college, this is Professional football with standings of W-L-T. At the end of the season, the teams with the most W’s make the playoffs and advance through a single elimination format. At the end of the season when the win totals are tallied, NO ONE asks what your opponents winnign % was. It is Ws and Ls and nothing else matters. And once a team makes the playoffs, it is truly ANY GIVEN SUNDAY (or Saturday if the playoff game is on a Saturday). Look no further than a 7-9 Seahawks team last year who won the weakest division in the history of the NFL, and then beat the defending SB champion Saints in the first round.
The schedule argument is a non-issue. The schedules are handed down by the league, and all a team has to do is win enough games to make the playoffs, and so far the Bengals have 5 Ws. This is NOT college football.
by The_Black_Stripes on Oct 31, 2011 4:21 PM EDT reply actions
WOW, ahahah
WOW, I think this is the PRO level, doesnt matter if the schedule is easy or not, this is the NFL and They are just saying because we are better than what they all expected so i can careless what the media has to say
WHO DEY ALL DAY!!!
Primary reaction: Fudge 'em
Secondary reaction: They can call it what they want, I call it a 5-2 record. The record is what matters; not who you beat. You know what also doesn’t matter? The score, or how you win. A win is a win.
Tertiary reaction: The pundits may be right. With the exception of Cleveland, we have not had to play the other AFCN opponents. If our record is so spongy soft, what will they say after if we beat the Steelers and Ravens in our first meetings with them? The great thing is, no one knows, so it’s exciting. We will be entertained. I’m having a ball this year. I think the Bengals have a team competent enough to beat ANY opponent we face this season. That’s pretty awesome.
Quaternary reaction: I’ve never used the word quaternary before. This year is full of firsts!
Wrong! Conan! What is best in life?
To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.
+1
Hahaha – great post.
I agree with all 4 of your points.
Who Dey
by The_Black_Stripes on Oct 31, 2011 5:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
+1
Hahaha – great posts! I agree will all 4 of your points!
Who Dey
by The_Black_Stripes on Oct 31, 2011 5:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The strength of schedule is arument does have some merit
The strength of schedule argument might partially explain why the Bengals alternate good years and bad years.
This space is available.
Most of these writers don't watch the game
They review the stats and watch the highlights
Andy’s interceptions will be talked about the wrong way when he’s trying to get those 40 yarders to put the game away.
We have a special team this year.
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