The Myth of the Bengals easy schedule (preseasonus mentalitatis)

by NorwayMike on Nov 23, 2011 9:15 AM EST

It is way past time to put to rest the preseason myth that Dalton has had a much easier schedule to work with than Newton!

Total wins by Carolina's opponents through week 11 = 53. Total wins by Bengal's opponents = 49. The difference is more than made up by the two outliers, the Bengals played Indy and Carolina played Green Bay. The idea that Dalton is playing a weaker schedule than Newton is just false if you look at the facts. But the analysts who tout the ROY for Newton are stuck in their preseason mentalities. In addition, if you look at common opponents, Dalton won and scored 30 on Jacksonville while Newton scored 16 in their win. Newton scored 3 points in their loss to Tennessee while Dalton scored 24 the week before in his victory over Tennessee. Total wins of opponents on the remaining schedule Carolina =28; Cincinnati = 30. By the time the season is over they will have faced 3 more common opponents (for a total of 5) and Cincinnati will have evened up the number of home games (Carolina has had 2 more home games than the Bengals up till now, meaning Dalton is winning on the road!). Instead of anointing Newton in week three or week 11 based on false assumptions and bad facts, why don't we wait until we have a full body of evidence to compare them? I am confident that Dalton wins out, if we avoid a rush to judgment.

And if you love stats, the average passing yards per game allowed by the defenses that Newton has faced is 240.6, good enough for a 21st place ranking. Whereas the average passing ypg allowed by defenses that Dalton has faced is 220.2, good enough for a 7 place ranking. If you project that over the rest of the schedule Dalton will face an average ranking of 7 place (201,8 pypg) whereas Newton will continue to face an avg ranking of 21 (241,1 pypg). In addition, there are really no outliers that skew these numbers. Week on week off Dalton faces top 10 pass defenses while Newton puts up those gaudy numbers facing bottom 11 pass defenses. And Dalton still has 3 times as many wins, more TD's, fewer interceptions, and 4 come-from-behind 4th quarter wins to Newton's zero. Dalton is leading his team at an unbelievable level, and that leadership is a qualitative indicator not found in stats!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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If Dalton can take the Bengals to the playoffs

I think he wins the ROY, if he doesn’t Cam Newton will win it. Just because of the ridiculous passing yards he is putting up. But obviously, Dalton should win because he has a winning record shows he can make the decision with the majority of his passes throughout most of the season.

I think Cam will have like 30 ints by the end of the year lol.

AMAS

by AMAS85 on Nov 23, 2011 10:25 AM EST reply actions

Agree w/the ROY judging you put up.

by supergrover on Nov 23, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I still don't think he wins

but he might deserve to win.

by The Dealio on Nov 23, 2011 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

Also, I might add

QBs will always be underrated statistically in the AFC North when you play Baltimore and Pitt twice every year. Even Cleveland is playing some good D this year. Those are two of the best defenses EVER assembled and have been dominant for over a decade. This is in stark contrast to the NFC South where Carolina plays soft defenses like Tampa and New Orleans several times a year

by The Dealio on Nov 23, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

I hope you're right about that playoff thing

Both guys have top notch QB skills but we do not know yet whether or not Newton will win at a high level in this league. I find it infuriating that the supposed analysts and experts are reduced to being Newton cheerleaders without any understanding of the fact that his first two 400 yard games were against the 27th and 31st ranked passing defenses and with Smith, while Dalton put up 375 against the number 7 passing defense in Baltimore without Shipley or AJ Green. When guys like Yats at espn’s nfc south blog maintain that the ROY choice has been over for weeks and repeat the myth about the schedule Dalton faces, I just cringe at the lack of “expertise” in the experts.

by NorwayMike on Nov 23, 2011 10:37 AM EST reply actions

+1

I like your reasoning! I wonder how good Cam would be doing with out Steve Smith for a couple of games?

AMAS

by AMAS85 on Nov 23, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed

And not just without Smith, but without Smith against a top notch defense like Baltimore, not the the Atlanta (26), Atlanta (27) and Minnisotas(28) he’s racked up the points on.

by NorwayMike on Nov 23, 2011 1:29 PM EST reply actions

oops,

I mean: Atlanta (26), Arizona (27), and Minnesotas (28) he’s racked up points on!

by NorwayMike on Nov 23, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions

very good stats.

But newton also is going to set the rushing tds by a qb record.

by JCompton41 on Nov 23, 2011 7:08 PM EST via mobile reply actions

true

Newton is like a smarter vick when it comes to running. he really doesn’t try to challenge the defender and he is bigger too.

AMAS

by AMAS85 on Nov 23, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

Newton has the skills and physical attributes

I agree, I think Newton could be the multifunctional QB many analysts have been craving for years. Whether it’s McNabb, Vick, Young, or Jamarcus Russell analysts for years have been looking for that fast running QB that creates matchup problems on the ground and in the air. When I see Newton pass and run I see a little of what they are after. mainly because Newton is big enough for the punishment (my problem with Vick) and has the prettiest pass of all the previous pretenders to the throne. But until this style is married to WINNING GAMES on the pro level I liken it to all the other side shows that crop up at different positions. The QB sets the tone for the offense and defense in modern football. He must rev them up at critical times, and calm his teammates down at the right time. He has to generate a rhythm that the rest of the team can match. I see this in Dalton so far. I haven’t seen it in Newton. And one of my biggest pet peeves is that your back-up must be able to replicate the same style of play as your starter, because the QB will go down and every game is critical in football.

by NorwayMike on Nov 24, 2011 8:47 AM EST up reply actions

Newton will end up winning ROY..........

which would be an injustice to Dalton. Dalton has had a great year, not just by rookie standards, but just overall. Give Newton the hardware, we’ll take the "W"’s in the win column. I don’t think Dalton is the type of guy to care about that kind of stuff anyways, which is just another reason to like him.

by The Van Buren Boys on Nov 23, 2011 8:14 PM EST reply actions

Absolutely

I agree 100%, I think the fans are more focused on this than Dalton is, and as you said, that’s just one more thing to like about the team (they all seem focused on playing football the best they can) and respect about Dalton. I’m more disgusted by the repetition of factual error by so-called experts in their cheerleading of Newton.

by NorwayMike on Nov 24, 2011 5:52 AM EST up reply actions

The difference is

Total wins by Carolina’s opponents through week 11 = 53. Total wins by Bengal’s opponents = 49. The difference is . . .

Bengals opponents have 4 wins against the Bengals and Carolina’s opponents have 8 wins against Carolina.
When you compare the two by only considering games played against other opponents (which is the proper comparison) there are 45 wins by the opponents of each team.

Pro Football Outsiders currently lists the Bengals with the 17th most difficult schedule; the Panthers 16th. They do a more in depth analysis than just W-L record.
Also the Browns are rated as having had the easiest schedule to date. (Four of their last five are against Pittsburg and Baltimore)

"Pawtucket Patriot Beer. If you drink it, hot women will have sex in your backyard."

by Evil Monkey on Nov 25, 2011 6:28 PM EST reply actions

So my main point is made!

Thanks for the input, it confirms the point I was making, that the analysts who continue to say that Dalton’s accomplishments come against a much easier schedule are wrong!

by NorwayMike on Nov 27, 2011 12:16 PM EST reply actions