Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: L'Equipe Claims He's Coming To Chelsea On Five Year Deal

Why the Colts shouldn't draft Luck: Look at the Bengals

Clearly, the biggest story in the NFL this year is whether or not the Colts should draft Andrew Luck if they have the opportunity to do so.  And clearly, this has been discussed at length via every sports platform in the known universe... ad nauseam.  So, what does this have to do with the Bengals?  Because I feel the Bengals have provided an eight year cautionary tale of what happens when you rest the fate of your franchise on the shoulders of a young quarterback.

Those of you who know me realize I was never an advocate of Palmer.  I always felt we should have stuck with Kitna and continued building around him and retaining talent.  I slightly felt that back then, strongly felt it mostly through this past decade, and categorically feel it now in hindsight.

Many considered (and still do) Palmer to be an elite QB.  Just for the sake of argument, let's assume they're right.  In that case, what happened to us since drafting him?  He came in with arguably one of the best offensive lines, stellar receivers, solid RB, and adequate TE - and in his third (second playing) year, we get to the playoffs and lose in the first round.  We don't return until 4 years later with the same result, subsequently followed by a 4-12 season.

To me, it was pretty obvious.  We weren't able to retain key players, nor afford quality FA's.  Yes, Mike Brown has been notoriously cheap and our franchise is nothing to be desired, but in the end, Palmer's salary ultimately proved to be the burden which prevented us from building a quality team around him.  Instead of retaining players like Justin Smith, Eric Steinbach, Madieu Williams, Takeo Spikes, and Jonathon Joseph, we let them go because we essentially couldn't afford then in lieu of Palmer's contract.  The key point is Carson Palmer was unable to carry this team by himself (even with some help).

As I argued in a post last year, people overvalue high round QB's and presumptuously dismiss latter round QB's.  A notion I think Dalton is somewhat dispelling as a second round pick after four preceding QB's (anyone who claims they thought Dalton would have this much success is either lying or exceptionally clairvoyant).

Now clearly, the perplexity of the whole argument is that Peyton Manning himself is the anomaly used by the pro-Luck side in establishing you can build a franchise on one QB.  But how many Peyton Manning's have there been?  By my account, none.  Tom Brady?  They went 11-5 without him, playing a QB who hadn't started a game since high school - and hasn't done much since being traded to KC.  I really hope the Manning-Brady comparisons have died by now.  But if you insist, let's say you're right - then we have a sixth rounder who's supposedly the best post-90's QB.

Now, you may be thinking one (or both) of two things.  With the CBA, they won't have to pay that much for Luck.  And won't any successful QB, regardless of their original draft position, cost the same amount later down the road if they are successful?

To answer the first, they'll still be an expensive, unproven rookie.  Plus, in a few years (typically 3-4), the franchise will be forced with the tough dilemma of choosing between him and other key players on the team.  Thus will begin their slide into mediocrity and eventual bottom-dweller status (see Cincinnati Bengals of this past decade).  And of course, the few quality players the Colts actually have (Freeney, Mathis, Wayne, Clark) will be retiring by that point.

To answer the second question, you simply let him go and bring in another inexpensive QB to be at the helm of your talent-loaded team.  Am I saying we should let Andy Dalton go if he demands an overly expensive salary in 3-5 years?  Yes.  I suspect there are more Andy Dalton's and Ryan Fitzpatrick's than we think.  Hell, I haven't even looked past current and previous Bengals QB's to provide two examples.  However, I don't believe lower-round QB's have as much leverage in demanding salaries as high-round QB's.  When an owner selects a QB in the first round, he is essentially dubbing him as the future face of the franchise for years to come.  He is, in many ways, too big to fail.  With all the money and years of work invested in him, name recognition, expectations, and reputation of the front office for selecting him, the owner will not want to let him go (see Palmer's $118M contract).  Because of this, I think we may be able to hold onto Dalton without overpaying.  And one more thing to consider... if you rest your fate on one player, what happens when that player goes down (see the Colts)?

Yes, Luck could possibly be the next Manning - both in quality and longevity.  Or he could be the next Ryan Leaf (who many considered to have more potential than Manning).  Or...  he could be the next Carson Palmer - who sets their franchise back a decade.

Not to rehash old arguments, but I think the Colts should look at what happened to us and trade for more draft picks and/or quality linemen - instead of throwing a young rookie to the wolves (see David Klingler and Akili Smith).

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

Comment 66 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

I don't really agree with Palmer setting us back...

That would be like saying he essentially was another Akili Smith, a waste of a draft pick and I don’t think that was the case. We can blame the 2010 playoff loss on Palmer, sure, but I think the 2006 knee shot destroyed his career. People say the Bengals ruined Carson Palmer. Not 100% true, the Steelers ruined him by destroying his confidence with that shot to his knee, the Bengals just made it worse by letting all his good lineman either retire or leave through free agency (Steinbach, Braham, Willie) and letting T.J. go as well. But I don’t regret drafting Palmer by any means because we would not have gotten that many seasons out of Jon Kitna as our starter that’s for sure and I’m sure glad we didn’t draft Kyle Boller out of that draft as opposed to Palmer. Palmer I think is more of an example of what could’ve been. He got unlucky in the playoff game against the Steelers and let’s face it, he was a different player after he got hurt. He developed what I would like to call “Jim Everett” Syndrome.

by dstacify on Nov 4, 2011 12:01 AM EDT reply actions  

the knee injury has been way overblown

he was the probowl mvp the following year. And Kitna is so bad, there was contention in Dallas at one point last year (6 years after Palmer was dubbed the starter) between him and Romo on who should be playing.

The “issue” with Palmer is his team deteriorated around him over the years and we discovered he’s not Peyton Manning.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 4, 2011 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is true...

however, to say he set us back a decade is not true. I don’t like the way he ended things here but he did not set us back, not in the early years at least. The personnel moves they made at O-line and RB set us back many years after the 2005 season. Plus while he may have had a good season in 2006 and became the Pro Bowl MVP, in case you don’t remember he also had a huge problem with fumbling the ball after every sack that year. It was clear to me that his confidence and swagger from the previous season disappeared that year because of the knee injury and it only got worse from there on out. And while Kitna might not be the best QB out there, he was decent when he was with us, particularly once Lewis took over and let him take full control of the signal calling, as opposed to LeBeau, who kept inexplicably benching him in favor of Akili Smith, Scott Mitchell, and Gus Frerotte in the previous years. But Kitna turned the team around before Palmer even became the starter so I think we at least owe him that much credit even if he did have problems throwing interceptions. Plus, I think Palmer started to lose faith in the team after MB let Kitna walk, because they were great friends off the field and Palmer publicly lobbied for them to re-sign Kitna that offseason. Was he good enough to save us in the playoff game when Palmer got hurt? No, but he was a decent QB for us, compared to what we had before him at least.

My overall point is, saying that Palmer set us back a decade is like saying we should never have drafted him and I 100% disagree with that. He didn’t accomplish what we wanted him to here that’s true but he wasn’t a bust on the same level that Akili Smith and David Klingler were. Kitna was not the long-term answer at QB and MB, stubborn as he is at times, knew that and that’s why we drafted Palmer, because he was by far the best option out of that year’s draft, being a Heisman Trophy winner and a four-year starter at USC.

by dstacify on Nov 4, 2011 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

"lost his confidence and swagger"

a fancy way of saying he never learned to adjust to defenses over the years, who figured him out. Yes, deterioration of the o-line hurt him as well – which is my main point. You can’t pay a gy $118M and expect to afford quality everywhere else. And you’re seriously going to rag on Ktina for interceptions?

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 4, 2011 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kitna was a good backup at best

He had small hands and stature and often had his passes swatted back in his face.
Before his knee injury in the 2005 Playoffs are you honostly going to tell us that you thought Palmer had been a mistake? I agree that Palmer heard footstepsafter the knee injury but IMO it wasn’t untill his elbow injury that he lost something on his passes.

With the new collective bargaining agreement/rookie pay scale the team that drafts luck won,t be hamstrung as in the past. If I’m GM I’d take Luck; assuming I needed a QB.

"At the very end, somebody took a dump right where I stood in the dugout every day." Dusty Baker

by featherman on Nov 4, 2011 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I said I thought he was effective for us in spite of the fact that he nearly threw 25 picks in one year...

I’m not ragging on him for throwing picks. He got better once Marvin took over, plain and simple.

by dstacify on Nov 4, 2011 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right guy in the right system can only take you so far

You said you would let go of dalton if he demands to much. So would most teams but if he plays good and wins games is it really overpaying? When palmer was playing like crap he was overpaid but when he was bringing a franchise from the dead he wasn’t ! Fitz played like crap in cin and for the rams but he found a good system now and he got his contract that I think is par for his performance so far. What if he leads them to big game? would you say I wouldn’t pay him more because it’s overpaying for a guy? What I am saying is a guy like kitna or fitz can take you so far but 9/10 you need a talent to win the big game more then once.

Also palmers contract did not hold this team back, browns budget did. We were not close to the cap and he could have spent more to keep those guys. The fact that he chose to use that % of his budget instead of using it on other players was on brown. We had a good QB, he should have opened his wallet and spent for a year or two while we had a chance.

With todays rookie cap, let luck sit or play him and find out what he is about. Its not like the old days where you would have to pay bradford 10 million to sit. He would be a very low percentage of the cap and if he turns out to be great you sign him to the contract he deserves and hopefully you have a good team around him.

I think your whole take on the carson palmer thing is wrong and biased because you dislike him. You can’t go wrong with having the best guys on your team. If luck is that guy then they should take him because the best guys will win you a championship.

by BigJungle on Nov 4, 2011 12:39 AM EDT reply actions  

I dislike Palmer?

I’ve spent the last several weeks and last year defending him as a person. I’ve always liked Palmer and even have his jersey, which I still wear (partly cause I’m too cheap to buy a new one).

What exactly is it that makes you so certain we can’t win with guys like Kitna or Fitz? The Bills seem to be doing a pretty good job with the latter (because he’s finally been surrounded by a good team as opposed to being set up for failure by the Bengals – who by the way started off 0-4 with Palmer that year).

Here’s what you don’t see in QB’s: their intelligence and ability to read & adjust to defenses. That’s what guys like Dalton and Fitz have which Palmer doesn’t. But since it’s hard to tell, people ignore that aspect and simply look at physical capability and what they did when suddenly thrown onto the field midway through the season.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 4, 2011 5:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

sorry. I didn’t mean you dislike him. I meant that you were not a fan of the bengals picking him because you liked kitna more. This is from your first line in the second paragraph.

I think you can win with those guys, however history shows that your more likely to win with a QB that is a little short in talent. You can so measure a QB’s intelligence and ability to read defenses. It show in the stats by completions, INTS, TD’s. until this year, Fitz was not great in the those catagories as was Kitna. Not to say they are not smart guys but I would imagine your talking about intellegence on the field. Palmer was not either in the late years but overall I would say he was pretty good looking at his numbers.

The part that I am concerned with is you said you would give up dalton if he demanded to much. I am wondering what your idea of overpaying would be? More then 10 million? I believe that if a QB is winning for you you have to pay top money sometimes. You can’t just interchange QB every three years. Otherwise Brady and Manning would be FA all the time at there wages. The key to every good team is a core of top players and players that play roles. Usually a QB is part of the core.

by BigJungle on Nov 4, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

the first line in second paragraph should be:

however history shows you that your more likely not to win consistently with a QB that has a little short on talent.

by BigJungle on Nov 4, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

uh

Fitz, if I recall correctly, is rated as one of the smartest people to ever play in the NFL. I think he has the second highest wonderlic score achievable.

Kitna isn’t smart, for sure, but he has good football instincts and great leadership quality. I’m very much turned off by people who prostelytize and he, while outspoken religious, didn’t even turn me off. That sounds bad. I mean, he turned me on.

wait… that sounds bad too. Anyway, he has a quality about him that seems to genuinely bring out the best in people around him. Shame he didn’t have Palmer’s hands. Kitna’s arm and height were not NFL caliber, but they were servicable. His hands are too small, however, and that led to fumbles and passes that were slipped out instead of being pump fakes. In retrospect, he’s probably top five in Bengals history QB (Cook, Anderson, Esiason, Palmer, Kitna), and that’s npt a bad thing to say…

"Suck for Luck"? Forget that
2010 was "Schemin’ for Green and Faultin’ for Dalton."

by supergrover on Nov 4, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

here we are

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderlic_Test#High_scores

High scoresPat McInally of Harvard is the only football player to record a confirmed perfect score of 50. (He took the test again in 2007 and “missed one. Not a bad score after six concussions.”) Boston College graduate Mike Mamula reportedly scored 49.Ryan Fitzpatrick, also a Harvard graduate and currently a quarterback with the Buffalo Bills, scored 48 in nine minutes.As of 2005, Miami Dolphins wide receiver Kevin Curtis of Utah State was reported to be tied with Fitzpatrick and Benjamin Watson of Georgia and the Cleveland Browns, with their 48 the highest Wonderlic score of active NFL players. In 2011, New York Jets quarterback Greg McElroy of Alabama was believed to have scored 48, but it was quickly discovered that he only scored a still impressive 43.

"Suck for Luck"? Forget that
2010 was "Schemin’ for Green and Faultin’ for Dalton."

by supergrover on Nov 4, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I liked Kitna for a couple reasons...

one for his attitude once Palmer was drafted and how he quickly took him under his wing and befriended him. I definitely think Jon Kitna leaving after the 2005 season could have played a part of Palmer’s descension into negative opinions towards the Bengals organization as he did openly call for them to re-sign Kitna and they elected to let him walk, which is understandable considering he wanted to start somewhere else (which unfortunately for him was in Detroit).

The second reason I liked Kitna was because I thought he played better against the Steelers than Palmer did although Palmer was much more effective against Baltimore. Granted the years Kitna was starting for us were before the Roethlisberger era in Pittsburgh and they were in transition at QB from Kordell Stewart to Tommy Maddox. I remember back in 2001 though, Kitna had one of the best games of his career against the Steelers as he threw for over 400 yds. in that game and we managed to pull off the upset as a result and the Steelers were one of the best teams in the NFL that year so Kitna did have some big moments for us and he was a leader on our team. I think Dick LeBeau’s coaching had a lot to do with Kitna’s early struggles. He was a guy that would simply never go away, no matter how many times LeBeau benched him.

by dstacify on Nov 4, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

not to mention the fact that it was Kitna, not Palmer, that QB’d the Bengals to a lead over the Steelers in the first half of that playoff game. Palmer threw one pass, which was a great one, then Kitna did all the rest. And he did it without Chris Henry. The brilliant halftime adjustment by the Steelers, to blanket everyone downfield so there was absolutely nowhere to throw, combined with the fact that all the Bengals coaches did at halftime was cry about Palmer being out, set Kitna up to fail in the second half. The poor guy was trying, scrambling around and looking for someone, anyone, to get open, but the way the D was playing there was literally nowhere to go.

by indesignkat on Nov 6, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

and

the brilliance of Brat also making adjustments at halftime…..Oh! that wasn’t a factor.

by WHYUS!! on Nov 6, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

There's a chance...

Kitna might get forced out of that list however, if Dalton continues playing the way he’s playing for us in years to come.

by dstacify on Nov 4, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

How can you even say that. The guy has played 7 games and look how he looks.

What do you do when there's no way out? Find a way to get deeper in it.

by jimbasa on Nov 4, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

easily :-)

i’d take a proven stud qb over a rookie who may or may not match them.

i’d take the proven stud at any position though. of course that’s assuming you take into consideration contracts, injuries, etc…

by ephram on Nov 4, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

You should support your QB, especially

when he is playing so promising.

What do you do when there's no way out? Find a way to get deeper in it.

by jimbasa on Nov 4, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

i do support him

But the odds of him becoming one of the top 3 or 4 QB’s in the NFL is low.
The odds of any QB becoming a top, elite, stud QB is low.

So i’d take a guy who is already an elite, stud, top QB anyday.
But i’d do that in any position.

Reggie Nelson is playing well, but i’d surely take an Ed Reed or Ronnie Lott over him in a heartbeat. AJ Green is off to a nice start, but i’d take an Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson over him. Our LB’s are playing well, but i’d take a Patrick Willis or Chris Spielman over them too.

It’s not that i don’t think Dalton will do well, but the elite, stud players are so rare to acquire, that if i could get one i’d be foolish not to try.

by ephram on Nov 4, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

The thing is that your comment comes at

the worst possible time since Dalton is playing so well.

What do you do when there's no way out? Find a way to get deeper in it.

by jimbasa on Nov 4, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are you currently, or have you ever been

a member of the Cleveland Brown fan club?

"Suck for Luck"? Forget that
2010 was "Schemin’ for Green and Faultin’ for Dalton."

by supergrover on Nov 4, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, why?

What do you do when there's no way out? Find a way to get deeper in it.

by jimbasa on Nov 5, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

your demeanor

is reminiscent of someone in the House Committee on UnAmerican Activities

"Suck for Luck"? Forget that
2010 was "Schemin’ for Green and Faultin’ for Dalton."

by supergrover on Nov 7, 2011 6:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Idk about Green...

I’d more or less say he’s the second coming of Calvin Johnson. Maybe more along the lines of Randy Moss as far as build but Green has the potential to be just as good as both Andre and Calvin Johnson, not that I wouldn’t the two of them on our team. I just probably wouldn’t give Green the axe to get one of them, especially since he’s younger and has a longer shelf life than the two of them.

by dstacify on Nov 4, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Green is a great player

But Calvin Johnson is the perfect WR in terms of build, speed, and ball skills. Nobody is as good. Period

by The Dealio on Nov 5, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

for my money, I'll take Calvin over any other reciever

Green doesn’t have nearly the strength Calvin has. Case and point: Dalton’s two interceptions. I’m positive Calvin would have come down with at least one or two of those instead of the defender.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

That can change year by year though...

look at how Peyton Hillis got smaller this year as opposed to last year. Trust me, if Green hits the weight room 7 days a week and starts doing everything he can in the offseason to become the perfect receiver training-wise (and he strikes me as the kind of guy that will do that every offseason) then he very well could become just as good as Calvin in terms of strength and making the difficult catches. The only reason he’s not as good right now is because he’s a rookie and he’s already off to a much better start this year than Calvin in his rookie year as Calvin didn’t even break 1,000 yds. his rookie season.

by dstacify on Nov 10, 2011 12:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Keep in mind...

we don’t know how good Brees and Rodgers would have been in their rookie years as they rarely saw the field. Brees was playing behind Doug Flutie in San Diego his rookie year and Rodgers was sitting behind Brett Favre for many years in Green Bay. I personally think Rodgers is as good as he is right now because he sat and learned from one of the best in Favre. If Rodgers came in and forced Favre out right away in his rookie year who knows what would have happened because we all know Favre has too much of an ego to accept a backup QB and mentor role to a rookie so he likely would have left if they elected to go with Rodgers from the get-go. And remember, Rodgers when he was drafted was heavily criticized because of his throwing motion and the way gripped the ball too high above his chest. I think he is silencing those critics now. Brees has always been criticized for not having a strong arm throughout his career in spite of how good he is and so far this year, turnover-wise, Dalton is having a better season than Brees. Dalton is coming in and starting immediately this season for us with only Gradkowski to mentor him and he’s wowing everybody, despite the fact that he doesn’t have legends like Doug Flutie and Brett Favre to play behind and learn from. For all we know, if Dalton keeps improving in the future he could be as good as both of those guys.

by dstacify on Nov 4, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm all for supporting your team..

but any fan would be an idiot to not trade Dalton for Aaron Rodgers. I like Dalton, he has played very well for the most part and I expect that to continue, but to turn your nose up at someone who is obviously tremendously better in every way.. that’s just silly. People can whine about fair-weather this or super-bowl-that, but nothing changes the fact that Rodgers is the best QB in football this season in every single way QBs are measured. Completion percentage, yards per attempt, td percentage, int %, wins, he’s #1 in every category.

by indesignkat on Nov 6, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Klingler & Akili were considered bad picks when they were made…so it’s unfair to compare A Luck to them, because nobody is considering A Luck a bad pick or a reach.

Nobody considered Klinger or Akili to be “once in a generation” type of QB’s.

So there is no way that i’d even begin to compare bad 1st round picks by the Bengals at QB as a reason for Indy not to take a QB #1 overall.

by ephram on Nov 4, 2011 7:19 AM EDT reply actions  

agreed

Akili was the worst first round pick of all time. Even without factoring in what Ditka offered for that pick it still was horrible. Factoring that in makes it obviously the worst ever by a tremendous gap. Klinger was out of Houston, if I remember correctly, and was the typical small school, system superstar that never does anything in the NFL. I don’t remember if there were many others before him, but there have been a bunch since.

Luck plays in a pro-style offense against good competition and still looks amazing. The phrase “suck for Luck” makes me so disgusted and angry I literally start to feel ill, but I can’t deny he’s one hell of a prospect. If Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck were in the draft at the same time, with the same college careers behind them, no one would be talking about Carson as a top pick. He was very good in one year, but he was a major disappointment at USC for the first few years before that, until they finally brought in an OC that he felt like working with. He’s always been a douche that doesn’t seem to care about the team. Comparing him to Luck, who so far hasn’t shown any weakness at all, doesn’t work.

by indesignkat on Nov 6, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

It is true you can win without a stud #1 overall QB, but…..most of the top teams have that type of QB (GB – Rodgers, NE – Brady, IND – Manning, etc…)

Yes, you can win games with a Trent Dilfer / Chad Pennington type (A Dalton), but there’s no way i’d just settle for that if i was the Colts and saw that a P Manning / J Elway type (A Luck) was sitting there in the draft waiting to be selected.

Of course Luck is not a gaurantee, but no position is a gaurantee.
If they take an OT there is no gaurantee he just becomes another Tony Mandrich or Jason Smith….if they take a DE what’s to say he doesn’t become another Vernon Golston or Andre Wadsworth….if they take a DT he could just become another Robertson or Courtney Brown?

There is no position that is a “sure thing”, so why not take the guy with the greatest upside who could potentially be one of the few elite QB’s in the NFL?

by ephram on Nov 4, 2011 7:22 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

the raiders, bengals, and chargers

JaMarcus Russell, Todd Marinovich
akili smith, david klingler, jack thompson
and the most famous one of all, ryan leaf.

these are the names that scare any GM when they have to draft a qb early. its true no position is a guarantee. the qb is a very public face of the franchise, when he flops, everyone notices. when your overweight high pick tackle does little to nothing for 3 seasons, few people outside of the hardcore fans and coaches notice.

props on bringing up Mandarich. bust of a bust there. again though, its like saying pete koch. another great bust. how many people outside of this forum would even know who koch is or was?

" Mike Brown is the owner that Cincy doesn't deserve, not the one it needs..."

by palewook on Nov 4, 2011 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Leaf is the only one

that might be a good comparison to Luck. I don’t know how much Luck’s psych profile has been looked at, but Leaf was an outstanding prospect coming out of college. The debate between him and Peyton Manning was split 50/50. Manning has since shown to be a real student of the game who brilliantly reads defenses and makes the team immensely better. Leaf turned out to be mostly interested in his own ego. In fact, he was exactly what a lot of Manning-haters call him. A guy who was too caught up in himself to lead a team.

by indesignkat on Nov 6, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Wasn't it Eli?

"Suck for Luck"? Forget that
2010 was "Schemin’ for Green and Faultin’ for Dalton."

by supergrover on Nov 7, 2011 6:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Colts should draft Luck

if they can, and trade Manning for picks either this draft or next.

by keithster on Nov 4, 2011 7:37 AM EDT reply actions  

keep in mind

the idea of finding a bargain QB only works until he fails and you have to move onto the next project QB (think vikes, dolphins). Or you get a hit and you have to pay the QB or he moves on.

while i’m not a fan of taking a QB with the top 5 picks in the draft, i do accept the chance of finding a starter on day 2 are less likely than finding a starter on day 1.

" Mike Brown is the owner that Cincy doesn't deserve, not the one it needs..."

by palewook on Nov 4, 2011 7:50 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

dude, what?
As I argued in a post last year, people overvalue high round QB’s and presumptuously dismiss latter round QB’s. A notion I think Dalton is somewhat dispelling as a second round pick after four preceding QB’s (anyone who claims they thought Dalton would have this much success is either lying or exceptionally clairvoyant).

Are you saying that high-round (assuming you mean early) QB’s are overrated and you assert this point by citing Dalton, a SECOND round pick? What is your definition of “high round” and why do you place second as not-high?

I agree that maybe too much focus is put in getting those top name qb’s… however, and I think this point is made elsewhere in here, the QB is one of the least plug-n-play positions in the NFL. I’m referring to a quality QB / leader vs an average QB or good qb w/no leadership qualities. (I think I might put the blind side lineman in there as well)

I think a Dilfer / Orton / Cutler / Romo / Kitna / Sanchez etc… type QB can be interchanged with not a lot of difficulty. But, if you manage to find a PManning or an Esiason or Montana or something and bring them in, it’s not a matter of just releasing them and dropping in a new guy. i realize Cassel had a fine year when Brady went out and Young came in for Montana in SF back in the day, but those aren’t the norm.
i think there are more disasters following the loss of a franchise QB (vs a system QB) than any other position.

"Suck for Luck"? Forget that
2010 was "Schemin’ for Green and Faultin’ for Dalton."

by supergrover on Nov 4, 2011 8:13 AM EDT reply actions  

yes, dude

I didn’t say Dalton is a low round pick. But he wasn’t a first rounder – and many people had him going later – nor was considered to be in that top echelon of 4-5 QB’s this past draft. Even after several weeks of successful performance, he was still barely on the national media’s radar. Point being he was not considered an elite QB, yet is having the success of one – because he’s set up for success, which I feel matters more.

i think there are more disasters following the loss of a franchise QB (vs a system QB) than any other position

that’s part of my main point. Why place all your stock into one position? I’d rather have an average QB with quality players distributed throughout the team – than an elite QB with average players surrounding him. Even if the overall talent is equal, at least there is less risk loss in one potential injury to the key player.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 4, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm just not following your logic here

Because you point to the Colts as an example… A team that has won a Super Bowl in the last five years entirely building a team of average players around Peyton Manning. A team that this year, without their first round stud quarterback, is 0-8…

My point

Colts with franchise QB – Perennial Super Bowl Contenders
Colts without franchise QB – Perennial first pick in the draft

I think I’ll take my chances with an elite QB

by The Dealio on Nov 5, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

the reason they're the worst team in the NFL right now

is because…. they are the worst team. They couldn’t really afford good talent to surround Peyton with because of his salary. I’d rather not have everything pinned on the heath and play of one player – but distribute the talent across the team.

In the end, people will think an average QB is a superstar (i.e. McNabb, Fitzpatrick).

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

If the Bengals won a Super Bowl

and were always in the playoff hunt, would you take a franchise QB with a bad supporting cast? I would.

by The Dealio on Nov 5, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd rather have a strong supporting cast that keeps us competitive constantly

like the Ravens and Steelers.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

you mean like Peyton Manning has since 1998?

What team has been more consistently good than the Colts?

by The Dealio on Nov 5, 2011 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've stated Manning is the exception

I realize dismissal of “exceptions” don’t make good arguments, but he seriously is measures beyond any other QB to play the game. If Luck is the next Manning, then yes, take him. But, it’s doubtful he’ll be one. The second best QB in the NFL couldn’t resurrect this Colt’s team.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha

well… granted he’s a rare breed. Luck is supposed to be the best prospect we’ve seen since Manning, but I’m with you on building a strong team around a QB like that. Hopefully the Bengals are on that track. Very good QB surrounded by very good supporting cast

by The Dealio on Nov 6, 2011 8:31 AM EST up reply actions  

this was a weird year

There were 6 QBs that were all expected go to in the first round or two and hardly anyone could agree in which of those two rounds any one of them would go, including Newton and Gabbert. The guy that went first is of course going to get all the media attention. How much have you heard about Jake Locker since the draft? He was the guy being talked about just like Luck is talked about now. If Luck stays for one more year at Stanford and has a pretty mediocre season, he could turn into the exact same guy.

by indesignkat on Nov 6, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

IF given the opportunity the Colts will Draft Luck

There’s no guarantee that Peyton will come back next year. He is also pretty old. Drafting Luck ushers in the new era for the Colts. As we have seen, life without a Peyton-esque QB is pretty dismal. Luck is great insurance if Peyton has another health issue, and you give Luck the opportunity to learn from the best before getting thrown to the lions.

Wrong! Conan! What is best in life?

To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

by UpStateMike on Nov 4, 2011 9:45 AM EDT reply actions  

58% of all NFL starting QB's come from round 1 (2010 starters).

 
That’s the highest % of any offensive position.

RB’s are next at 50%, while others are much lower (WR 28%, OT 30%, OG 13%)

Another 12% come from round 2, so 70% of all NFL QB’s come from the early rounds (1 & 2).

In the last decade 27 QB’s have been taken in round 1.
In 2010 there were 19 qb starters who came from round 1.
That’s a pretty good ratio 70%.

In rounds 5, 6, 7 there were 66 QB’s drafted the last decade.
In 2010 there were only 5 QB starters who were taken in rounds 5, 6, 7.
That’s a terrible ratio 8%.

Taking a QB #1 overall isn’t a sure thing, but it greatly increases your chances of finding a solid starting QB. So if i’m the Colts and a prospect who is considered one of the best in the last decade is sitting there, i’d be foolish not to take him.

by ephram on Nov 4, 2011 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I addressed this in the post I referenced

but, the reason this is the case is because most every team put all their stock into high round QBs, setting them up for success, while the lower round picks are pushed to the side and set up for failure – very rarely getting a decent chance to succeed.

Would anyone know who Brady is if Bledsoe never went down that year – and/or he played for say, the Detroit Lions instead of the Patriots. Not saying there are many Brady’s out there, but I suspect there are plenty of Fitzpatricks who never get the chance to really succeed.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Elite QBs

The point isn’t where the QB is drafted, the point is that every team needs an elite QB. Go back the last 10 years and tell me a team that has won the Super Bowl without an elite level QB…

Packers – Rogers -
Saints – Brees -
Steelers – Roethlesburger –
Giants – Manning –
Colts – Other Manning –
Steelers – He who shall not be named –
Patriots – Brady –
Patriots – Brady –
Bucs – Brad Johnson (exception to the rule) -
Patriots – Brady -
Ravens – Dilfer –
Rams – Warner

Only two teams don’t have an elite QB… and they had ELITE defenses. My point it is far more rare to win a SB with an average QB than win a Super Bowl with an average defense, offensive line, etc.

by The Dealio on Nov 5, 2011 10:06 AM EDT reply actions  

see, the "quality" of a QB and success of a team are reciprocal of eachother

if these players were on crappy teams, noone would consider them elite. Brees was considered maybe an decent QB until his team won the Superbowl. How many disappointing seasons has Eli Manning had besides his Superbowl year – where he was suddenly thrust into the “elite” echelon of QB’s, only to quickly fall back to “mediocrity”.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

the only exception to what just said is Peyton Manning

which is why I think he is far and away the greatest QB to ever play the game.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

New Orleans Saints record in 2005 (the year before they got Brees)

3-13

New Orleans Saints record in 2006 (the year they got Brees)

10-6

Also, I would like to make the point that having an elite QB and a decent team around that guy aren’t mutually exclusive ideas, as per your Matt Cassel Example… but having Brady made the Pats three time champs. The Pats didn’t even make the playoffs with Cassel.

by The Dealio on Nov 5, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

you realize they played the 2005 season entirely on the road, due to Katrina?

I’d have to assume that effected them somewhat. They were 8-8 the year before.

And yea… the Pats didn’t make the playoffs. But they went 11-5 with a QB, who hadn’t started a game since high school – and didn’t have the starting practice reps during the preseason, having been thrust into the first game after Brady’s injury.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

he was on a Superbowl winning team

so clearly, he was an elite QB….. by the rationale of many.

Moisture is the essense of wetness, and wetness is the essense of beauty.

by Blue Steel on Nov 5, 2011 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's playing like one this year

2011 Year of the Red Rifle
Carson Palmer 2011 Comeback Player of the Year

by Throw the ball on Nov 6, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Eli is in the top 10 this year

but typically an “elite” qb is somebody who sustains a high level over a long period of time, not somebody who is mediocre for a while and then finally had a good half of a season.

by ephram on Nov 7, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree

but he’s playing as well as anyone not named Rodgers RIGHT NOW… and really that’s all that matters.

2011 Year of the Red Rifle
Carson Palmer 2011 Comeback Player of the Year

by Throw the ball on Nov 7, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

/Disagree

2011 Year of the Red Rifle
Carson Palmer 2011 Comeback Player of the Year

by Throw the ball on Nov 7, 2011 12:06 AM EST reply actions  

Pay the man

I posted 10-6 day one

DId you guys see the rose bowl, Dalton was awesome and had balls, the young reciever core performed well at the end of the year; did anyone see the charger game last year?
We knewZimmer would get the defense to perform.
Loser mentality players are gone – Palmer tio 85
This team is balanced on offense and has a good kicking game with a great D.
Dalton’s accuracy is the difference and we will have to pay some day.

QB’s move the ball Coaching wins superbowls, Elite QB’s make the throws in the 4th quarter
Pay the man

by Echmbst on Nov 9, 2011 12:35 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the Cincinnati Bengals.

Editor-In Chief

Cj_small Josh Kirkendall

Editor/Managing Editor

Rudiblanket_small Anthony Cosenza

5255_133614603784_666578784_2414703_1976100_n_small Jason Garrison

Authors

Photo_3_small BeerRun

010511170110_small Joe Goodberry

40297_422933299865_509514865_4658259_6466915_n_small Ryan Harper

Small Brennen Warner

Sb_nation_small Jack Cassidy

580551_10150822857707018_613867017_11694254_1239726425_n_small Nick_Crago

Img_0783_small Mike Fightmaster

Moderators

Nfl palewook

680764146_0eac16fabd_small 80%OFTHETIMEIMRIGHTEVERYTIME

Tawky_tawny_small UpStateMike

Joeb698_86e260_small joeb69

Bengals_stamp_by_jamaal10_small Doc Scratch