What The Colts 19-16 Win Over The Texans Means For The Bengals Playoff Run

by Josh Kirkendall on Dec 23, 2011 10:07 AM EST in Playoffs

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - DECEMBER 18: Dan Orlovsky #6 of the Indianapolis Colts walks off the field after the Colts first victory of the season during the game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 18, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts defeated the Titans 27-13. (Photo by John Grieshop/Getty Images)

With 19 seconds remaining during Thursday Night’s game against the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Dan Orlovsky placed a well thrown pass high enough where only Reggie Wayne had an opportunity to out-leap the secondary to haul in the reception. It was a game-winning touchdown, giving the Colts a 19-16 win over their division rivals in Houston. That being said, the unstoppable Orlovsky-Wayne connection helped the Cincinnati Bengals’ improbable playoff run.

Did it redefine scenarios? No, not even close. But what else did you expect from an 1-13 Colts team hosting a 10-4 Texans squad that beat the Bengals only weeks earlier.

Before Thursday Night’s game, the New York Jets had the sixth seed for the 2011 NFL playoffs by virtue of a tie-breaker. That tie-breaker is strength of victory, combining all of the records that the Bengals and Jets beat respectively and compiling a winning percentage. Cincinnati beat the Browns (twice), Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks, Titans and Rams, giving the Bengals a strength of victory of .304.

Alternatively the Jets, who haven’t beaten the Colts or Texans this season, head into this weekend with a strength of victory .402. Seems distant the strength of victory between the Bengals and Jets, doesn’t it?

As Wayne hauled in the game-winning touchdown, securing Indianapolis’ win over the Texans, it improved Cincinnati’s strength of victory to .310; still distant but every win by those the Bengals defeated will be critical if both teams finish the season at 10-6.

And that’s the crucial point. The New York Jets do not have an opponent with a winning record remaining on their schedule whereas the Bengals do not have an opponent with a losing record, helping to vastly improve their strength of victory, provided that both teams finish the schedule with a winning record.

If, and we offer that in the most cautious terms, both teams win out, then the Colts win on Thursday means that the Bengals still need a five-game swing.

In other words the Bengals need teams like the Browns, Seahawks, Titans and Rams to get hot. Though the Bengals were victorious against the Bills, the Jets beat them twice requiring wishful scenarios of Buffalo finishing the season on a losing streak because it would hurt New York more. Both teams beat the Jaguars, negating whatever they do for the rest of the season.

Additionally the Bengals need losing streaks by the Cowboys, Chargers, Redskins and Chiefs.

It’s all improbable in reality, but still possible. None of it matters, however, if the Bengals can’t finish the season with ten wins. Realistically anything less and they’re out.

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Comments

these scenarios are confusing

I just know the easiest way is to win out and hope the jets lose once….which is very possible…..I dont think this is too much of a long shot….both games are tough,,,,but both are games we can win

by ticalcaldwell on Dec 23, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions

i'll repeat my comment I made on the last feed

If Baltimore can take care of Cleveland, and St. Louis can pull off the upset against the Steelers (with a banged up Ben), the Ravens would lock up the North, and with the Texans loss almost have the second seed locked up as well. Now, if the Giants also beat the Jets and we take care of business against the Cardinals, then we could be going into next week controlling our own destiny against a Ravens team with nothing more to play for. Last nights game might have meant more that we orginally thought.

It's not worth winning if you can't win big.

by chazerize on Dec 23, 2011 10:28 AM EST reply actions

If that happens

I doubt Bmore rests their guys. Division game and a chance to keep us out of the playoffs.

by TCfromDubVee on Dec 23, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not saying all game

But I think they run a very vanilla offense, with no trick plays or anything. And we know that Boldin is already out. Depending on how banged up they get tomorrow, and seeing how Ben looks now after his injury, I could see them taking it easy the final week if nothing to play for. Having a great divisional record doesn’t mean anything if they lose guys the final week with nothing to play for.

It's not worth winning if you can't win big.

by chazerize on Dec 23, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

all dan orlovsky does is win!

Read that is a skip bayless voice for full effect.

by JCompton41 on Dec 23, 2011 10:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs

Okay unrelated question

If the Giants and Jets both make the playoffs by winning their division and both have to play a home game the first weekend is that possible?

Ben is not playing so the rams have a chance especially if they play the steelers as hard as they played us.

If the Giants beat the Jets. (which i think they will) the BMore winning might a good thing.

But if not we need the Browns to WIN.. that gives us another +2 strenght of victory.

Personally id rather play a game in Bmore than Pittsburg so im still hoping that BMore wins the north. But i think we can take them at home. The have been headed in the wrong direction lately. and we put up 450 yards on them last time without AJ green

by Bengalsfan024 on Dec 23, 2011 10:46 AM EST reply actions

If were the six seed

We’re going through New England before either one anyways. And then they would play each other (Pitt and BMore) in the second round, so it won’t matter who wins the division to determine where we would play if the possibility arose.

It's not worth winning if you can't win big.

by chazerize on Dec 23, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah one team would play saturady the other sunday

Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player and 2012's Superbowl MVP
"Obviously, I felt like if I ran into my lineman there it was going to help the play" ~Tony Romo

by thebigham on Dec 23, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

And both could have a home game

They would just make sure to have one on Saturday and one on Sunday, though it would be neat if they had a double header, but there would be mass chaos trying to empty that stadium between games.

Although I’m sure it’s moot, since NE is probably going to lock up the East and the NO. 1 seed.

It's not worth winning if you can't win big.

by chazerize on Dec 23, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

most likely

one of them have to lose this weekend,so the loser isnt going to be playn anyway

"A team is more than a group of individuals,its a group of individuals that come together to make a team"

by keithp on Dec 23, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

Patriots have already clinched the AFC East, so this year your scenario is impossible.

In future season, though, I would believe that one game would be played Saturday, and the other on Sunday.

by The_Black_Stripes on Dec 23, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

bengals blew the texan game

which took their playoff fate out of their control. they deserve this for choking in what marvin described as his biggest game as a the bengals coach.

as most long suffering fans of mike brown’s reign have endured sub .500 season after sub .500 season, think of this as a bright season. even if we miss the playoffs, this team will do something its rarely done under mike brown, win. 9-7 or 10-6. over the 8-8 hump, what more can you ask of a mike brown team. be glad, this has been a fun season.

" Mike Brown is the owner that Cincy doesn't deserve, not the one it needs..."

by palewook on Dec 23, 2011 11:05 AM EST reply actions

once teams get into the playoffs, they get silly in the regular season

Texans losing to Indy, Pittsburgh losing the #1 overall seed after they made it.

Didn’t the Bengals get crushed the week after they locked up the division back in 2005?

So i don’t think we can compare the Houston game vs. Indy in any way to the Houston game vs. Cincy. From Houston’s perspective, they were completely different.

by ephram on Dec 23, 2011 12:34 PM EST reply actions

Houston playing hurt

Its a little different,Texans lost there QB,i think what you saw last night is who they are now

"A team is more than a group of individuals,its a group of individuals that come together to make a team"

by keithp on Dec 23, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

yates was the qb when the texans beat the bengals

" Mike Brown is the owner that Cincy doesn't deserve, not the one it needs..."

by palewook on Dec 23, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

NO SHEET!!!!!!!!

I know,Are we supposed to be afraid of Yates still?
It wasnt like they dominated the game,didnt they win in the last seconds?

Would much rather see Yates first round,Than Brady
IMO The Texans are done,unless of course some soft as team lets them run all over

"A team is more than a group of individuals,its a group of individuals that come together to make a team"

by keithp on Dec 23, 2011 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

i still want the ratbirds as the #3 seed

" Mike Brown is the owner that Cincy doesn't deserve, not the one it needs..."

by palewook on Dec 23, 2011 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

I'm with you there!

Beat the Ravens to end the season and get in,then go to there house and KNOCK EM"OUT
I think all the Charger’s did was block Suggs,and key on Rice
Flacco looks like that gay cop off comedy central

"A team is more than a group of individuals,its a group of individuals that come together to make a team"

by keithp on Dec 23, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions