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Why drafting Trent Richardson (or any RB) in round 1 is bad drafting

I more or less "borrowed" this from a blog post on cbssports. It's my view, but is composed much better i could do in the time i allow myself to post. The point being with the talk of the 2012 draft popping up, and Trent often being mentioned as a "great pick" if he falls to us, or even if we trade up to get him, i just wanted to post some intelligible comments for why taking Trent in round 1 may not be the best decision for the success of the team.

.

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The difference between them and the NFL's 32nd-best back is negligible when compared to the differences between, say, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning and whoever your candidate is for the league's worst starting quarterback. The same holds for wide receivers, left tackles, cornerbacks, safeties -- basically every position but running back.

So why is that?

For starters, the shelf life for a top-flight running back is remarkably short. A study by Doug Drinin of Pro-Football-Reference.com found that RBs usually decline by age 28, WRs by age 30 and QBs by age 32.

In a story published in January 2005 in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Carl Prine explained that the sheer brutality of the position coupled with overuse has also played a role.

"The average career of an NFL back is 2.6 years and falling, according to the National Football League Players' Association. Players, coaches and historians interviewed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review blamed the mayfly careers of rushers on the … high number of carries they get in an age of free agency," Prine wrote. "Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, teams rarely asked their backs to touch the ball more than 230 times in a season.

"Historically, every time a player gets more than that many touches in a season, his production declines the following year by 50 fewer carries and 1.2 fewer games. Nearly three out of every five of these backs are out of the league within four years."

Then there's the research by FootballOutsiders.com which suggests that rushing success is more dependent on the offensive line, but pass protection is more dependent on the quarterback. Put differently: teams can find productive running backs -- no matter when they were drafted (or if they were drafted at all) or how much they're making -- if a good offensive line is already in place. A great quarterback, however, can mask an o-line's shortcomings.

A great running back, in general, is wasted on a mediocre offensive line.

Even back when Chris Johnson exploed in 2009 for 2,006 rushing yards, 14 TDs, 503 receiving yards...the Titans only won eight games and missed the playoffs.


Here's what FootballOutsiders.com president and ESPN.com columnist Aaron Schatz told CBSSports.com about Chris Johnson's demands for a substantial pay bump. "When was the last time a team with a big-name, big-money back went to the Super Bowl, or even had the best regular-season record in the league? I suppose the 2009 Vikings came close. Otherwise, do you have to go back to the 2005 Seahawks? The best offenses in the modern NFL simply aren't built around a single running back."


This reminds us of something Schatz wrote as part of his "Football Outsiders Basics" series: "By and large, a team built on depth is better than a team built on stars and scrubs. … Every team will suffer injuries; the only question is how many. The game is too fast and the players too strong to build a team based around the idea that 'if we can avoid all injuries this year, we'll win.'"

The previous eight Super Bowl winners didn't have a high-priced, top-5 running back on the roster. What they did have, however, was a franchise quarterback. Teams can survive without one but not the other."

Poll
As far as drafting Trent Richardson (or any round 1 RB in the draft) my view is:
this article was stupid. i still want my sexy pick of the big-name running back!
15 votes
the article was intriguing, but i still like the idea of drafting Richardson
31 votes
the article raises some good points. i think i could live w/o taking Richardson next April
14 votes
the article only supports what i've already felt. get me some O-Line and DB's in the draft, please!
63 votes
who's Trent Richardson? I was some chocolate chip cookies!
4 votes

127 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

Comment 57 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Was an easy vote for me........

if you have holes in your O Line, you take help there first. I don’t want to draft Richardson at the cost of giving up a future starter at T or G. I think with our obvious needs at CB and O line, I think we fill those spots first. Between those two spots, whoever is the best available is who I hope we take first.

by The Van Buren Boys on Dec 27, 2011 10:56 AM EST reply actions  

I would rather fix the OL with a few FA pickups so we dont have to wait for them to develope

i dont see the bengals drafting a G in round 1 maybe a top flight C like the one from Wisconsin and play him as a G his first year but not a G and we are good at T

by Bengalsfan024 on Dec 27, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with you, I just question whether or not we break the bank for a Guard (Nicks, Grubbs, etc.)

Typically a position we don’t spend much money on. I wish we would, otherwise we might just end up having this conversation again next year at this time.

by The Van Buren Boys on Dec 28, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

This offense needs another stud WR to go with Green and

Michael Floyd might fall to us. Floyd is big and strong, not a speed demon but can block his ass of.

Kenneth Lewis Moore

by lightskin350 on Dec 29, 2011 4:26 AM EST up reply actions  

agreed

The NFL is a passing league right now anyway, so the RB position isn’t what it used to be. That said, if Richardson “fell” to us I’d take him.

by bengaljohnboy on Dec 27, 2011 11:15 AM EST reply actions  

exactly why Richardson could fall to us

CincyJungle.com Contributor for the NFL Draft

Follow me on Twitter @JoeGoodberry for Bengals & NFL Draft talk

by Joe Goodberry on Dec 27, 2011 11:13 PM EST via Android app up reply actions  

Good article

I’d take offensive linemen and a DB in the first two rounds of the draft. You can get a quality RB in the 3rd round, I think the cowboys proved that last year when they drafted DeMarco Murray in the 3rd round. Also I think Benson has some years left in him. You won’t need to replace him just yet.

Just do me a favor and beat the ravens sunday :)

I love the Steelers.

by tannofsteel84 on Dec 27, 2011 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

I would like to say goodbye to Benson.

Solid back but not explosive enough. We could use a more explosive back who catches out of the backfield and doesn’t almost fumble away a victory.

by TCfromDubVee on Dec 27, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

of course he wants us to keep Benson

He’s a Steeler fan, hell, if I was a steeler fan I’d hope the Bengals kept Benson too

get your ass out there and pop em in the mouth, and if that don't work knee em in the nuts

by joeb69 on Dec 27, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I want a RB, but

not until the 2nd or 3rd round, depending on how quick they go. I still think Cyrus Gray may be the non-1st-round gem of the RB class.

by indesignkat on Dec 27, 2011 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

this

A change needs to happen to this organization. Mike Brown please step down.

by Mr.Blanket on Dec 27, 2011 4:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

kenny irons

Pissed me off we drafted him and then he got hurt. And then there was goodbye.

A change needs to happen to this organization. Mike Brown please step down.

by Mr.Blanket on Dec 27, 2011 4:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

1st round RBs and the Bengals don't mix well

so should we just never draft a first day RB again?

by indesignkat on Dec 27, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

besides

I expect Gray to be a 3rd rounder

by indesignkat on Dec 27, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Dillon was a second rounder

certainly hope we DON’T take one in the first, If we get one in the 2nd I’d be pissed, but not as pissed as using a 1st rounder on one

get your ass out there and pop em in the mouth, and if that don't work knee em in the nuts

by joeb69 on Dec 27, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I would definitely take Richardson if he fell to us.

Reason being that there are good guards that you can draft every year that end up getting drafted past the 20th spot. That position just doesn’t usually go much higher than that usually, in fact they usually aren’t drafted in round 1. A talent like Richardson doesn’t come around all the time… he would be a dynamic back with power, speed, and the ability to catch. A player like that doesn’t come out every year.

I still think we absolutely need a top CB out of this draft, but Trent Richardson would be excellent as well if he falls to us. We can get a guard in the 2nd round that will be able to start if we take RB in the first round. I would definitely like CB, and guard to be our top picks if Richardson isn’t there, and we could grab Montee Ball in the 2nd or Polk or Pead in the 3rd or 4th respectively.

by Luke on Dec 27, 2011 11:43 AM EST reply actions  

Draft based on talent.

People argued against taking a WR with the #4 pick last year and that turned out pretty well.

The year before that, nobody wanted a TE, but I don’t hear any complaining about Gresham.

And the year before that they took an offensive lineman who until this year was the most maligned pick in the Marvin Lewis era.

If there’s a player at a position of need who can be a game changer, you take him. Period.

by Animal_Like_Football on Dec 27, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep, exactly what I'm saying.

His talent far exceeds any guard that will be there at that point, and we can get a guard in the 2nd that will be on almost the same level as any that we’d take in the first.

by Luke on Dec 27, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

right on

A change needs to happen to this organization. Mike Brown please step down.

by Mr.Blanket on Dec 27, 2011 4:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

A top RB vs Peyton Manning or Tom Brady

Peyton Manning was a once a NFL generation pick. Tom Brady was a once in a lifetime steal. I agree that RBs are easier to find. We did well for years with Corey Dillion then with Rudi Johnson, but if you have the chance to get the next Barry Sanders, Emitt Smith, Adrian Peterson, Eric Dickerson, or Marshall Faulk, you take it.

We currently have the 18th and 23rd Picks. WIth the 28th Pick, there are only a handful of guys we should take. Blackmon (who won’t be there), Richardson, Decastro, the best corner available, and Glenn (in the order I prefer) are the only guys I would take right now at 18.

Our needs aren’t great (assuming we re-sign Simpson, Lawson, and Nelson). We desperately need 2 Guards, a RB, and a Corner. We also need safety, WR, another RB, and DE. There are no Safeties worth taking in the first. So, if RIchardson is there, we should take him.

It must be inordinately taxing to be such a boob. ~ The Brain

by jim0ijk on Dec 27, 2011 11:54 AM EST reply actions  

I could go either way

if the line is just terrible, it wont make a difference who is running the ball. However, if you put a RB that is the caliber of Peterson, Mcfadden (when healthy), or S Jax behind the current Bengals O-line, I think we are much better than we are with Cedric Benson. That said, I think they could find an upgrade for Benson in the 2nd round and there is no need to burn a 1st rounder on a RB

Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge

by Derftron on Dec 27, 2011 12:06 PM EST reply actions  

I agree with this

the problem with this argument is that we already have our QB for the foreseeable future. Adding a AP like running back has the potential to make this offense dynamic.

by The Dealio on Dec 28, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I believe that CB and OG should be our priorities

But if Richardson falls to us, we’d be crazy not to take him. We’ll be needing an every-down RB. That’s the nice thing about having two first-round picks, we can take the BPA and still grab a player at a position of need.

by Big Sky Bengal on Dec 27, 2011 12:18 PM EST reply actions  

You can argue against it all you want, but here's what's what:

Marvin’s constantly shown he goes for BPA at a position of need. He won’t reach for a guy and he will gladly snap up a guy who’s fallen. Richardson’s apparently on a top 5 talent, best-since-Peterson level. If he falls to either of our first rounders this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marvin snapped him up because he’s better than any guard in the draft and there’s some decent interior linemen prospects this year.

We have needs at CB, RB, OG, and I guess FS. Marvin will take the best of any of those players that fall to us. If it’s Richardson, Glenn, and like Jenkins, he’s probably taking Richardson.

"It’s time people started realizing just how good a player Carlos Dunlap already is, and that starts with the Bengals. They gave him a season-high 58 snaps and what was the result? Carnage on the right side of the Seattle line." -Pro Football Focus

by Doc Scratch on Dec 27, 2011 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

I think SS more than FS

Crocker is done, Mays is still rough. Whereas Reggie Nelson is starter-quality. We should grab a developmental CB/FS hybrid later in the draft, though.

by Big Sky Bengal on Dec 27, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not even likely that he will be there... he'll most likely go top 10.

But IF he’s there we’d be stupid not to take him. It’s our top 3 in needs probably and he will be by far the BPA if he’s still there.

If he’s not there, take CB, then guard, then Montee Ball (hopefully) in the 2nd.

by Luke on Dec 27, 2011 12:49 PM EST reply actions  

most mochs i see have him falling to the us @ 18

this will be a big D draft gotta stop them passing yards

by Bengalsfan024 on Dec 27, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

If he falls to us I think we should draft him.

He won’t fall to us though so here is what I’m thinking.

OL, CB or SS, SS or WR, RB

1st – OL Decastro or Glenn
2nd – CB Dre Kirkpatrick or Alfonzo Dennard or maybe SS here in Barron since it is a short draft on SS
3rd – SS Rey Rey Armstrong or WR Sanu (I would really like to have Sanu)
4th – RB Isiah Pead

Monte Ball has also caught my attention and might be worth a look in the second if avaible.

I would like us to use picks on OL, DB, RB in the first 4 rounds though.

by TCfromDubVee on Dec 27, 2011 1:10 PM EST reply actions  

1st pick Best Overall talent in a position of Need RB or CB

2nd pick in the First OL
2nd round BPA Defense if we get 2 Offense in round 1
3rd round DT Derek Wolfe if hes there
3rd comp Grab a WR or LB

by Bengalsfan024 on Dec 27, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

You said it yourself.....

Teams can find a “PRODUCTIVE” running back. I think we need more than that. Dalton, as good as he has been, probably isn’t going to ever grow into a Tom Brady, or a Rogers up in GB. He most likely isn’t going to be as good as Peyton Manning, or Drew Brees. So how do we make up that difference? How do we improve our offense? I agree that helping the oline out is one way. For sure. But getting an explosive running back with something to prove is another way. If we knew for certain that we could find that type of RB later in the draft, or via trade, I’d jump all over it. But if we’re sitting there at pick number 18 or so, and Richardson is still on the board, we’d be INSANE not to draft him.

You probably didn’t want us to draft Green last year either, and look how that has turned out?

by Stanley1 on Dec 27, 2011 2:00 PM EST reply actions  

I agree and disagree.

For the most part, I wouldn’t waste a 1st on a RB unless they fell pretty far. For instance, if Richardson fell to the Steelers I would consider picking him, but that’s it. If I was picking within the top 20 picks I really wouldn’t even consider him. However, they are players like Lattimore (who I think is coming out next year) who you just have to take, no matter where you are.

"If you havin' dragon problems I feel bad for you son, I got 99 arrows but my knee took one."

by Riddlah. on Dec 27, 2011 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

Richardson>Lattimore

Lattimore was awesome his freshman year, then he carried the ball 30 times in all his games until he blew his knee out. Another 300 carries next year and he’ll have to have a wheelchair to get to the draft. That is, IF he recovers from this injury (ligament and cartiladge damage).

If you think RBs have a short shelf life, draft Lattimore and see what happens.

by Joe27 on Dec 28, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Very true. I almost forgot about his injury.

"If you havin' dragon problems I feel bad for you son, I got 99 arrows but my knee took one."

by Riddlah. on Dec 28, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions  

im not so sure

I agree that a great oline makes any running back better. But if a talent such as richardson falls to us i think we have to take him. Alot of people felt we shouldnt of drafted a.j. green and looked how that turned out. I would love for us to get OL through free agency but i dont see it happening when two of the best guards may get the franchise tag. Plus i dont think mikey boy would spend that much money nor do i think we draft a guard in the first round. Even though we should.

A change needs to happen to this organization. Mike Brown please step down.

by Mr.Blanket on Dec 27, 2011 4:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Forgive if I'm mistaken...

but I thought Richardson wasn’t coming out until the 2013 draft? The last I heard he wasn’t even an option for us to draft him, at least not for another year.

by dstacify on Dec 27, 2011 5:37 PM EST reply actions  

he is coming out

just hasn’t announced it yet

by Joe27 on Dec 28, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Well first of all, the Bengals have 2 picks in round 1

If Richardson is there, I could see taking him.
But the new CBA has radically changed the equation of draft vs free agency.
Draft picks are far cheaper now than prior years so that is where teams will go.

If it were me, I’d look to trade down in round 1(still staying in round 1) with one or both of my picks to acquire extra second round picks. I’d be real happy if the Bengals drafted no higher than 25 in round 1 with their two picks yet picked up 2 new second rounders. With 5 picks they could solve most of their problems on the Online, secondary and skill positions on offense.

by BENGALS69 on Dec 27, 2011 5:37 PM EST reply actions  

not a bad idea at all

A change needs to happen to this organization. Mike Brown please step down.

by Mr.Blanket on Dec 27, 2011 6:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Well,

I just think it would be a rarity to have talent like Dalton (QB), AJ Green (WR), Gresham (TE) and Richardson (RB) on the same team. Throw in Simpson that could be outstanding as a No.2 WR if he can be consistant, then throw in Shipley as a slot WR and BAM! There you have it, your Super Bowl winning team….
But I would only pick Richardson if he fell to us or didn’t have to give up our other 1st round pick. Having him line up with these other studs sounds good though. Just read and listen to the sound of that line up. Puts a ringing in your ears…

by WHYUS!! on Dec 27, 2011 7:27 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Lots of choices...

But in order I think I’d look at:
1. DB’s and shut-down corners
2. Interior O-LINE
3. Running back.
4 Backup QB..

I represent the Bengals of Cincinnati with extreme passion and prejudice and make no apologies for it!

by Law1951 on Dec 27, 2011 8:25 PM EST reply actions  

Yes..

While I thik Case will go in the teens at most in the round, Zach Callaros has a higher ratio of INT’s againt TDs. I hope he plys in the Liberty bowl so I can look at him more.
Right now I’m scared of both.. Kellen’s drawback is he’s either not very mobile or can’t see the field cause he’s too busy running around losing yards, but he threw 43 Tds with only 9 InTs. That’s damn good!..

I represent the Bengals of Cincinnati with extreme passion and prejudice and make no apologies for it!

by Law1951 on Dec 28, 2011 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the Bengals should address safety in Rd. 1...

if at all possible, although past behavior dictates that they probably won’t. But since top tier corners like Claiborne and Kirkpatrick will likey be gone by the time we pick I actually have my sights set on Mark Barron as a solid safety pick in Rd. 1 or maybe even round 2 if he falls there since it would give us an excuse to get rid of Crocker finally and it would provide a cushion in case the Taylor Mays project fails.

by dstacify on Dec 28, 2011 12:56 AM EST reply actions  

I'm not sure I agree with your premise

As you said yourself, RBs have a much shorter shelf life than most positions, so why would you look anywhere else other than the draft for one. If you can single out those diamonds in the rough, then great. But usually the higher rated RB has a higher probability of success than a 4-7 rounder or UDA. There are corners and guards that can be picked up in free agency, and I do think MB has gotten the point that screwing Bengals fans will come back to bite him. I don’t think he’ll take the next two free agency periods lightly, and he had to reach his cap floor by next year. Waiting until next year has to be about as stupid of a move as not trading Palmer would have been in that he will lose a lot by not acting.

So out of all the holes that a free agent could fill, RB is the one that they should not try to go for there. Therefore Richardson would be a great pick. If MB sits on his hands again during free agency then yes, there are going to be more important holes to be filled, but I think he realizes that he can’t get away with that anymore.

Try not to take the above message too seriously.

by einman77 on Dec 28, 2011 2:19 AM EST reply actions  

Carl Nicks, guard from New Orleans

would be an amazing free agent signing that I could see happening :)

by Luke on Dec 28, 2011 7:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Would love to see this signing, but it would break the bank for us to sign a guard.

The thing we have going for us towards New Orleans letting him go is that they already gave their other G the largest payday for a player at that position to date. May not be able to afford them both, but am skeptical that Brown would pay that much for anything other than a tackle.

by The Van Buren Boys on Dec 28, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Blackmon would be a sick combo with Dalton & Green...

I would love to see that happen. That would be an offense fans would flock to see, IMO (well, up from the 40k fans we draw). Either Green or Blackmon would be single covered, Gresham would be open in the middle, or there would be a big hole up the middle for our RB… either way, it would be productive and fun to watch.

The amount of liquor I drank last night would've killed a small-to-medium sized Asian family.

by balooko31 on Dec 28, 2011 9:22 AM EST reply actions  

Richardson is the only back that should be taken in the first 15or picks.

The Bengals don’t have to worry about him being there because he will be gone in the first 10 picks. We have 3picks in the first60 and should address CB OG S WR. Michael Floyd and AJ Green would be great together.

Kenneth Lewis Moore

by lightskin350 on Dec 29, 2011 4:23 AM EST reply actions  

Drafting AJ was bad drafting

Just saying, a lot of the points in this article are very fair and accurate, but we were listening to the same kinds of arguments last year about drafting receivers high. They don’t touch the ball enough to make a major impact, they take a long time to acclimate to the league, etc. The ghost of Peter Warrick alone had a huge chunk of this message board terrified that AJ Green was going to cripple this franchise for a decade.

My only point is, when the rubber hits the road, if you have the opportunity to take a special talent in the draft then you don’t hesitate. Look at Green Bay. There was no solid reasoning for them to draft Aaron Rodgers in the first round when they did. Favre was years away from being done. But they saw a special talent and they said “you know what? Forget all the reasons NOT to do it. That guy’s going to be great.” And look how that’s worked out.

by eric nyc on Dec 29, 2011 8:41 AM EST reply actions  

I don't think it was bad drafting...

saying that WRs don’t touch the ball enough to make a major impact isn’t really true. AJ = quick strike guy, reliable, etc and even when he isn’t catching the ball he still is drawing multiple defenders in coverage, opening up other recievers and the running game. WR can DEFINITELY make a major impact even when they aren’t catching the ball.

by Luke on Dec 29, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

AJ is a dangerous enough receiver that opposing DCs have to make a choice: double cover him and potentially leave someone else open to make a big play, or single cover him to plug the other holes and risk that he burns his cover man for a big gain or touchdown.

Just having him on the field forces DCs to consider what his presence could do on any given play and can create mismatches elsewhere. Like when a DC chooses to put a CB and a Safety on him and leave Gresham to be covered by a linebacker, I like that match up. Once we have Shipley back next year and have 4 legitimate big play threats on the field at once, the impact of having AJ Green will be more apparent.

by Realityburn on Dec 29, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not arguing that it WAS bad drafting

I’m saying that people come up with reasons why “You shouldn’t draft (this position) above (this draft slot)” all the time. Last year it was WR’s. Now it’s RB’s. If you’re looking at a guy you think can be a Pro Bowler and contribute to your team, you draft him. Richardson would fit that description if he fell to us, or close enough to us to make it relatively cheap to trade up and get him.

by eric nyc on Dec 29, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Got ya now!

Agreed! Take the best talent in a position of need… that WILL be Richardson if he falls to us, and if not it will probably be Janoris Jenkins, or DeCastro if he’s still there.

by Luke on Dec 29, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

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