In my humble opinion, I think that you win football games if your score is higher than the opponent’s score. I know that’s a radical concept, but I think it works.

I also adhere to the view that you end up with more points than the opposition if you make good play calls, and have good players to execute well on the field.

Since it’s draft time, and the draft doesn’t concern itself with the play calling, so I’ll focus on the part about getting good players on the field.

My personal take (concerning the draft) is that the best way to do this is by drafting the best players available when you pick instead of drafting players based on your immediate needs, because reaching for players who are not the best ones available does not leave your team with the best possible players. And without good players, it’s hard to have a score that is higher than the opponent’s at the end of the game....which is how you win.

So with this in mind....who should we really take with the #4 overall pick?

I decided to look at the pre-draft grades (per Scouts Inc – I had to pick somebody and they were easy to find) given to the prospects from the 2009 draft and the 2010 draft. Using those pre-draft grades, I looked at the first few rounds and was able to get a general idea of where a player should fall into the draft based on his grade & position.

WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR

For example, here are the draft positions and grades for the WR’s from 2009 and 2010.

Based on this, a WR with a 96 grade or higher is a top third of round 1 pick (1A).

A grade of 95~94 would put you in the middle third of round 1 (1B).

And a grade of 93~89 will put you at the bottom third (1C)

And 88~86 would be top third of round 2 (2A)

And so forth...

Next I looked at the grades given to the top WR prospects entering this year’s draft, and tried to determine where they should fall in this year’s draft.

AJ Green has a grade of 97 and should go in the top 10 picks for sure, as he is higher than anybody who came out over the last 2 seasons. Julio Jones should go around 20~25 since his grade is 94 which puts him below Jeremy Maclin and around Dez Bryant. Randall Cobb should go around the end of round 1 since his grade of 89 is similar to Percy Harvin and Kenny Britt.

 Based on this, if we are going to take a WR way up at #4 it should be AJ Green (sorry J Jones). Taking J Jones that high would be a big reach similar to the Raiders taking Heyward-Bey who had a 90 grade with the 7th overall pick.

S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S

OK, in addition to a WR, everybody says we need a Safety. Here is how they went in 2009 and 2010:

This year there is only 1 safety rated in the top 30+ prospects, unlike the 3 from last year’s draft. Rahim Moore has an 89 grade which puts him in the range of Louis Delmas & Taylor Mays, which would be early round 2.

RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB

I realize that nobody at CJ has been advocating using a high pick on a RB (and for good reason), but the Bengals being the Bengals, I feel it’s worth at least a mention since none of the mock drafts really show any RB’s very high. Here is 2009 and 2010:

If you look at Mark Ingram’s grade of 94, he ranks between CJ Spiller & Ryan Matthews, and equal to Knowshon Moreno. That puts Ingram in that pick 10 thru 15 range. It’s always a possibility that Mike Brown could take a RB and neglect bigger holes on the team since Ingram is a good talent.

QB –QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB

OK, now to the hotly debated position...QB.

Three QB’s have gone in the top 5 picks over the last 2 years. They each had grades in the high-mid 90’s. Looking at 2011 shows 3 guys with grades in the 90’s:

With a grade of 96, Blaine ranks up there as a top 5 pick (even #1 overall calibre) based on previous grades & draft results. Cam Is just below M Sanchez, so he could be anywhere from a top 5 selection on down to a mid round 1 selection. Jake Locker at 91 even warrants a mid to late round 1 pick based on past results. Based on this, if the Bengals take a QB at #4, they should select Blaine if they want a good value for the pick.

None of the other QB’s in this year’s draft grade out worthy of a high second round pick to be a good value for the pick, but will mostly be gone when the Bengals pick in the third. So if they Bengals take a QB in round 2 (other than Blaine, Gabbert, Locker) it will be a reach and a bad value.

O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE

The O-Line always can use some upgrading. Especially at OG, where our LG’s are only adequate and our RG is likely gone? OT seems o.k. with Whit and A Collins, and we can’t forget Sir Moobs, if he can keep his feet under him. Since often OT’s get moved to OG’s for O-Line it’s best to look at both positions. And I might as well throw in the Centers while I’m at it.

Tackles with a grade of 95 or higher are top 8 picks, and any OT in the 90’s is likely to be a round 1 pick. In 2011 there are 4 OT’s in the 90’s, With Tyron Smith leading the way at 95. Tyron is similar to Jason Smith who was #2 overall a few years ago.. I don’t see us taking the top OT’s when we pick at #4, but someone like Carimi may still be there at the very top of round 2 if teams go in other directions.His grade is in the range of M Oher, B Bulaga and C Brown who were all late round 1 or round 2 picks. If he falls he could be another value pick that the Bengals tend to go after in round 2.

There are no M Iupati’s in this year’s draft (OG’s rated in the top 30+ players with a grade of 90 or better). So there are no OG’s who are really values to take in the top of round 2 for 2011.

Mike Pouncy is up there as an OC.  His brother went in mid round 1 with a grade of 93 and both A Mack & E Wood went in mid-late round 1 with grades of 87 and 86. Since Mike Pouncey has a grade of 91 he is likely gone when we pick in round 2. But if he is around, I think we pounce since he can fulfill both the OC and OG positions, and his grade puts him in the mid-late portion of round 1 so he would be a good value in round 2.

LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB

After taking K Rivers and R Maualuga the last couple years, LB may not seem to be a position that needs to be addressed – even if Dhani is gone. Assuming Rivers is on the outside, we also have an underrated B Johnson, and possibly Maualuga if he doesn’t move inside. And there is also M Johnson who may be an OLB with Dunlap now taking one of the 2 DE spots. So OLB seems like a very unnecessary position to focus on high in the draft. But it doesn’t hurt to look at it:

V Miller has a grade of 97 that puts him with A Curry who was #4, and well ahead of B Graham and USC’s Cushing & Matthews who were mid-late round 1 picks. So somebody should take V Miller in the top 5 or 6 picks, since he would be a good value there. Ayers would be a decent value pick in round 2, but we seem to have much bigger positions to address. So I don’t see us going with either of them.

There are no ILB’s in the top 30+ picks this year, and with Maualuga & Muck already on board, plus possibly D Jones, I’m skipping that position.

CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB

The Bengals arguably already have a good tandem of CB’s in J Jo & L Hall. We also have top-10 pick A Jones, along with  B Ghee and M Trent on the roster. So CB seems to be a position where they are deep. But....if J Jo doesn’t’ re-sign and A Jones doesn’t return healthy and Trent or Ghee get moved to S or don’t pan out....then CB could be seen as a need.

A grade in the 90’s puts a CB in round 1 and a mid 90 grade gets a mid to high pick.

Both Peterson and Amukamara are rated higher than any CB in 2009 and 2010. Based on that, they should both clearly be in the top half of the draft. Peterson is clearly top 5 material and Amukamara is top 10 worthy. J Smith is worthy of a mid to late round 1 pick based on past drafts. Peterson is clearly worthy of a top 5 pick and a good value at #4. If they pass up CB in round 1, Jimmy Smith would be a good value in round 2, but the premium on CB’s in the NFL means that he will likely be long gone by then.

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Looking at ALL of the positions, here is what I came up with concerning the 2011 draft for who is worthy of a high selection in the top third of the draft based on their grade & position.

To draft anybody other than these guys at the #4 pick would be a complete travesty because it would not be a good value pick, and with 8 guys clearly rated as top draft material, the Bengals should be able to hit one of them. Even trading down to #8 ensures them 1 of the elite studs in this year’s draft.

Assuming we stay at #4....the draft is rich in DE’s and we already have a few of them on the roster, so I’m going to eliminate Bowers from consideration from that list. Also, we have a bigger need at OG than OT, with Whit on the left and Collins/Smith on the right. So I’m going to pass on Tyron. V Miller would be a good value, but I’m not sure he would get utilized right in our 4-3, so I’ll skip past him. That leaves the rest.

So I’d say Green / Dareus / Peterson / Gabbert are the only 4 players that the Bengals should be looking at with the #4 overall pick. Any selection other than these guys at #4 overall would either be a reach (and therefore not a good value for as high as we would be picking them) or would be taking a player in a position that isn’t as big of a need for us.