FanPost

Best value at the #4 overall pick

In my humble opinion, I think that you win football games if your score is higher than the opponent’s score. I know that’s a radical concept, but I think it works.

 

I also adhere to the view that you end up with more points than the opposition if you make good play calls, and have good players to execute well on the field.

 

Since it’s draft time, and the draft doesn’t concern itself with the play calling, so I’ll focus on the part about getting good players on the field.

 

My personal take (concerning the draft) is that the best way to do this is by drafting the best players available when you pick instead of drafting players based on your immediate needs, because reaching for players who are not the best ones available does not leave your team with the best possible players. And without good players, it’s hard to have a score that is higher than the opponent’s at the end of the game....which is how you win.

 

So with this in mind....who should we really take with the #4 overall pick?

 

I decided to look at the pre-draft grades (per Scouts Inc – I had to pick somebody and they were easy to find) given to the prospects from the 2009 draft and the 2010 draft. Using those pre-draft grades, I looked at the first few rounds and was able to get a general idea of where a player should fall into the draft based on his grade & position.

 

 

WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR – WR

 

For example, here are the draft positions and grades for the WR’s from 2009 and 2010.

 

2009

Player

Grade

2010

Player

Grade

1.10

10 Michael Crabtree

96

 

 

 

1.19

19 Jeremy Maclin

95

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.24

24 Dez Bryant

94

 

 

 

1.22

22 Demaryius Thomas

92

1.29

29 Hakeem Nicks

91

 

 

 

1.07

7 Darrius Heyward-Bey

90

 

 

 

1.22

22 Percy Harvin

89

 

 

 

1.30

30 Kenny Britt

88

2.07

7 Arrelious Benn

88

 

 

 

2.28

28 Golden Tate

84

2.18

18 Mohamed Massaquoi

83

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.13

13 Damian Williams

82

 

 

 

3.23

23 Eric Decker

80

3.18

18 Derrick Williams

78

3.26

26 Taylor Price

78

2.04

4 Brian Robiskie

77

3.14

14 Brandon LaFell

77

 

 

 

3.24

24 Andre Roberts

74

3.19

19 Brandon Tate

73

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.18

18 Emmanuel Sanders

72

4.07

7 Mike Thomas

71

3.20

20 Jordan Shipley

71

 

Based on this, a WR with a 96 grade or higher is a top third of round 1 pick (1A).

A grade of 95~94 would put you in the middle third of round 1 (1B).

And a grade of 93~89 will put you at the bottom third (1C)

And 88~86 would be top third of round 2 (2A)

And so forth...

 

Next I looked at the grades given to the top WR prospects entering this year’s draft, and tried to determine where they should fall in this year’s draft.

 

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

1A

5. A.J. Green

WR

Georgia

97

1C

11. Julio Jones

WR

Alabama

94

1C

32. Randall Cobb

WR

Kentucky

89

 

AJ Green has a grade of 97 and should go in the top 10 picks for sure, as he is higher than anybody who came out over the last 2 seasons. Julio Jones should go around 20~25 since his grade is 94 which puts him below Jeremy Maclin and around Dez Bryant. Randall Cobb should go around the end of round 1 since his grade of 89 is similar to Percy Harvin and Kenny Britt.

 

 Based on this, if we are going to take a WR way up at #4 it should be AJ Green (sorry J Jones). Taking J Jones that high would be a big reach similar to the Raiders taking Heyward-Bey who had a 90 grade with the 7th overall pick.

 

S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S – S

 

OK, in addition to a WR, everybody says we need a Safety. Here is how they went in 2009 and 2010:

 

Player

Grade

Player

Grade

 

 

 

1.05

5 Eric Berry

97

 

 

 

1.14

14 Earl Thomas

95

2.01

1 Louis Delmas

89

2.17

17 Taylor Mays

89

3.31

31 Rashad Johnson

86

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.05

5 Nate Allen

85

2.23

23 William Moore

81

 

 

 

2.02

2 Patrick Chung

79

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.06

6 T.J. Ward

73

4.16

16 Chip Vaughn

71

 

 

 

2.16

16 Darcel McBath

69

3.07

7 Morgan Burnett

69

 

 

 

3.11

11 Major Wright

68

 

 

 

3.12

12 Chad Jones

65

4.14

14 David Bruton

51

4.12

12 Darrell Stuckey

51

4.12

12 Glover Quin

49

 

 

 

2.15

15 Michael Mitchell

20

 

 

 

 

 

This year there is only 1 safety rated in the top 30+ prospects, unlike the 3 from last year’s draft. Rahim Moore has an 89 grade which puts him in the range of Louis Delmas & Taylor Mays, which would be early round 2.

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

2B

31. Rahim Moore

S

UCLA

89

RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB – RB

 

I realize that nobody at CJ has been advocating using a high pick on a RB (and for good reason), but the Bengals being the Bengals, I feel it’s worth at least a mention since none of the mock drafts really show any RB’s very high. Here is 2009 and 2010:

 

Player

Grade

Player

Grade

 

 

 

1.09

9 C.J. Spiller

95

1.12

12 Knowshon Moreno

94

 

 

 

1.31

31 Chris Wells

93

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.12

12 Ryan Mathews

91

1.27

27 Donald Brown

89

 

 

 

2.21

21 LeSean McCoy

88

1.30

30 Jahvid Best

88

 

 

 

2.19

19 Toby Gerhart

81

3.01

1 Shonn Greene

79

2.04

4 Dexter McCluster

79

4.29

29 Andre Brown

78

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.14

14 Joe McKnight

77

 

 

 

2.27

27 Montario Hardesty

76

 

 

 

2.26

26 Ben Tate

72

3.10

10 Glen Coffee

71

 

 

 

4.11

11 Mike Goodson

70

 

 

 

4.34

34 Gartrell Johnson

37

 

 

 

 

 

If you look at Mark Ingram’s grade of 94, he ranks between CJ Spiller & Ryan Matthews, and equal to Knowshon Moreno. That puts Ingram in that pick 10 thru 15 range. It’s always a possibility that Mike Brown could take a RB and neglect bigger holes on the team since Ingram is a good talent.

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

1B

16. Mark Ingram

RB

Alabama

94

 

QB –QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB – QB

 

OK, now to the hotly debated position...QB.

 

Player

Grade

Player

Grade

 

 

 

1.01

1 Sam Bradford

97

1.01

1 Matthew Stafford

96

 

 

 

1.05

5 Mark Sanchez

95

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.16

16 Jimmy Clausen

89

 

 

 

3.21

21 Colt McCoy

86

1.17

17 Josh Freeman

85

 

 

 

2.12

12 Pat White

79

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.25

25 Tim Tebow

78

 

 

 

4.24

24 Michael Kafka

59

4.01

1 Stephen McGee

54

 

 

 

 

 

Three QB’s have gone in the top 5 picks over the last 2 years. They each had grades in the high-mid 90’s. Looking at 2011 shows 3 guys with grades in the 90’s:

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

1A

6. Blaine Gabbert

QB

Missouri

96

1B

13. Cam Newton

QB

Auburn

94

1C

24. Jake Locker

QB

Washington

91

 

With a grade of 96, Blaine ranks up there as a top 5 pick (even #1 overall calibre) based on previous grades & draft results. Cam Is just below M Sanchez, so he could be anywhere from a top 5 selection on down to a mid round 1 selection. Jake Locker at 91 even warrants a mid to late round 1 pick based on past results. Based on this, if the Bengals take a QB at #4, they should select Blaine if they want a good value for the pick.

 

None of the other QB’s in this year’s draft grade out worthy of a high second round pick to be a good value for the pick, but will mostly be gone when the Bengals pick in the third. So if they Bengals take a QB in round 2 (other than Blaine, Gabbert, Locker) it will be a reach and a bad value.

 

O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE – O-LINE

 

The O-Line always can use some upgrading. Especially at OG, where our LG’s are only adequate and our RG is likely gone? OT seems o.k. with Whit and A Collins, and we can’t forget Sir Moobs, if he can keep his feet under him. Since often OT’s get moved to OG’s for O-Line it’s best to look at both positions. And I might as well throw in the Centers while I’m at it.

 

OT

Player

Grade

Player

Grade

1.02

2 Jason Smith

97

 

 

 

1.08

8 Eugene Monroe

96

1.06

6 Russell Okung

96

1.06

6 Andre Smith

95

1.04

4 Trent Williams

95

 

 

 

1.11

11 Anthony Davis

93

1.23

23 Michael Oher

92

1.23

23 Bryan Bulaga

92

 

 

 

2.32

32 Charles Brown

91

2.07

7 Eben Britton

89

2.01

1 Rodger Saffold

89

2.28

28 Will Beatty

85

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.08

8 Bruce Campbell

81

2.22

22 Phil Loadholt

80

 

 

 

2.26

26 Sebastian Vollmer

74

 

 

 

4.09

9 T.J. Lang

73

3.05

5 Edwin Veldheer

73

4.35

35 Troy Kropog

65

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.30

30 Jason Fox

57

3.11

11 Robert Brewster

52

 

 

 

4.32

32 Seth Olsen

50

 

 

 

 

 

OG

Player

Grade

Player

Grade

 

 

 

1.17

17 Mike Iupati

93

 

 

 

3.04

4 Jon Asamoah

86

 

 

 

2.29

29 Vladimir Ducasse

84

2.19

19 Andy Levitre

82

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.09

9 John Jerry

79

 

 

 

2.13

13 Zane Beadles

74

4.33

33 Tyronne Green

72

 

 

 

3.15

15 Kraig Urbik

70

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.34

34 Mike Johnson

65

3.14

14 Louis Vasquez

59

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.28

28 Shawn Lauvao

54

 

 

 

4.19

19 Joseph Hawley

33

4.23

23 Rich Ohrnberger

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.31

31 Jacques McClendon

--

 

OC

Player

Grade

Player

Grade

 

 

 

1.18

18 Maurkice Pouncey

93

1.21

21 Alex Mack

87

 

 

 

1.28

28 Eric Wood

86

 

 

 

2.17

17 Max Unger

85

 

 

 

3.13

13 Antoine Caldwell

71

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.16

16 J.D. Walton

59

4.06

6 Jonathan Luigs

58

 

 

 

 

 

Tackles with a grade of 95 or higher are top 8 picks, and any OT in the 90’s is likely to be a round 1 pick. In 2011 there are 4 OT’s in the 90’s, With Tyron Smith leading the way at 95. Tyron is similar to Jason Smith who was #2 overall a few years ago.. I don’t see us taking the top OT’s when we pick at #4, but someone like Carimi may still be there at the very top of round 2 if teams go in other directions.His grade is in the range of M Oher, B Bulaga and C Brown who were all late round 1 or round 2 picks. If he falls he could be another value pick that the Bengals tend to go after in round 2.

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

1A

10. Tyron Smith

OT

USC

95

1B

18. Nate Solder

OT

Colorado

94

1B

20. Anthony Castonzo

OT

B.C.

92

2A

22. Gabe Carimi

OT

Wisconsin

91

 

There are no M Iupati’s in this year’s draft (OG’s rated in the top 30+ players with a grade of 90 or better). So there are no OG’s who are really values to take in the top of round 2 for 2011.

 

Mike Pouncy is up there as an OC.  His brother went in mid round 1 with a grade of 93 and both A Mack & E Wood went in mid-late round 1 with grades of 87 and 86. Since Mike Pouncey has a grade of 91 he is likely gone when we pick in round 2. But if he is around, I think we pounce since he can fulfill both the OC and OG positions, and his grade puts him in the mid-late portion of round 1 so he would be a good value in round 2.

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

1C

25. Mike Pouncey

C

Florida

91

 

LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB – LB

 

After taking K Rivers and R Maualuga the last couple years, LB may not seem to be a position that needs to be addressed – even if Dhani is gone. Assuming Rivers is on the outside, we also have an underrated B Johnson, and possibly Maualuga if he doesn’t move inside. And there is also M Johnson who may be an OLB with Dunlap now taking one of the 2 DE spots. So OLB seems like a very unnecessary position to focus on high in the draft. But it doesn’t hurt to look at it:

 

Player

Grade

Player

Grade

1.04

4 Aaron Curry

97

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.13

13 Brandon Graham

94

 

 

 

1.31

31 Jerry Hughes

93

1.15

15 Brian Cushing

92

2.11

11 Sergio Kindle

92

1.26

26 Clay Matthews

91

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.15

15 Daryl Washington

90

 

 

 

1.19

19 Sean Weatherspoon

89

2.25

25 Paul Kruger

88

 

 

 

2.13

13 Clint Sintim

87

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.27

27 Navorro Bowman

83

 

 

 

2.08

8 Koa Misi

80

2.31

31 Cody Brown

79

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.26

26 Eric Norwood

78

3.33

33 Tyrone McKenzie

76

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.20

20 Jason Worilds

75

 

 

 

4.05

5 Perry Riley

74

 

 

 

4.18

18 Thaddeus Gibson

72

4.04

4 Kaluka Maiava

70

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.21

21 Jermaine Cunningham

66

 

 

 

3.33

33 Rennie Curran

62

 

 

 

4.21

21 A.J. Edds

57

3.12

12 DeAndre Levy

54

 

 

 

4.10

10 Victor Butler

52

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.32

32 O'Brien Schofield

48

3.05

5 Jason Williams

37

 

 

 

4.26

26 Slade Norris

30

 

4.23

23 Keenan Clayton

30

 

V Miller has a grade of 97 that puts him with A Curry who was #4, and well ahead of B Graham and USC’s Cushing & Matthews who were mid-late round 1 picks. So somebody should take V Miller in the top 5 or 6 picks, since he would be a good value there. Ayers would be a decent value pick in round 2, but we seem to have much bigger positions to address. So I don’t see us going with either of them.

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

1A

2. Von Miller

OLB

Texas A&M

97

1C

26. Akeem Ayers

OLB

UCLA

91

2B

29. Justin Houston

OLB

Georgia

90

 

There are no ILB’s in the top 30+ picks this year, and with Maualuga & Muck already on board, plus possibly D Jones, I’m skipping that position.

CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB – CB

 

The Bengals arguably already have a good tandem of CB’s in J Jo & L Hall. We also have top-10 pick A Jones, along with  B Ghee and M Trent on the roster. So CB seems to be a position where they are deep. But....if J Jo doesn’t’ re-sign and A Jones doesn’t return healthy and Trent or Ghee get moved to S or don’t pan out....then CB could be seen as a need.

 

Player

Grade

Player

Grade

1.14

14 Malcolm Jenkins

94

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.07

7 Joe Haden

93

 

 

 

1.20

20 Kareem Jackson

93

 

 

 

1.29

29 Kyle Wilson

92

1.25

25 Vontae Davis

90

1.27

27 Devin McCourty

90

2.05

5 Alphonso Smith

89

 

 

 

2.09

9 Darius Butler

88

 

 

 

4.19

19 D.J. Moore

87

2.02

2 Chris Cook

87

 

 

 

1.32

32 Patrick Robinson

85

2.29

29 Sean Smith

82

 

 

 

2.10

10 Jairus Byrd

81

 

 

 

2.27

27 Sherrod Martin

79

3.01

1 Jerome Murphy

79

3.22

22 Asher Allen

77

3.02

2 Amari Spievey

77

4.02

2 Donald Washington

75

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.32

32 Brandon Ghee

74

3.16

16 Kevin Barnes

70

4.28

28 Akwasi Owusu-Ansah

70

 

 

 

2.18

18 Javier Arenas

69

 

 

 

3.30

30 Kevin Thomas

68

 

 

 

4.13

13 Walter Thurmond

64

 

 

 

3.03

3 Myron Lewis

63

3.32

32 Keenan Lewis

62

 

 

 

3.24

24 Lardarius Webb

59

 

 

 

4.31

31 Gregory Toler

57

 

 

 

3.28

28 Jerraud Powers

56

 

 

 

3.30

30 Ryan Mouton

54

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.06

6 Alterraun Verner

53

3.26

26 Christopher Owens

49

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.07

7 Trevard Lindley

41

3.02

2 Bradley Fletcher

32

 

 

 

3.09

9 Derek Cox

30

 

 

 

 

 

A grade in the 90’s puts a CB in round 1 and a mid 90 grade gets a mid to high pick.

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

1A

3. Patrick Peterson

CB

LSU

97

1B

9. Prince Amukamara

CB

Nebraska

96

1C

27. Jimmy Smith

CB

Colorado

91

 

Both Peterson and Amukamara are rated higher than any CB in 2009 and 2010. Based on that, they should both clearly be in the top half of the draft. Peterson is clearly top 5 material and Amukamara is top 10 worthy. J Smith is worthy of a mid to late round 1 pick based on past drafts. Peterson is clearly worthy of a top 5 pick and a good value at #4. If they pass up CB in round 1, Jimmy Smith would be a good value in round 2, but the premium on CB’s in the NFL means that he will likely be long gone by then.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Looking at ALL of the positions, here is what I came up with concerning the 2011 draft for who is worthy of a high selection in the top third of the draft based on their grade & position.

 

 

Player

Pos.

School

Grade

1A

5. A.J. Green

WR

Georgia

97

1A

2. Von Miller

OLB

Texas A&M

97

1A

1. Marcell Dareus

DT

Alabama

97

1A

4. Da'Quan Bowers

DE

Clemson

97

1A

3. Patrick Peterson

CB

LSU

97

1A

6. Blaine Gabbert

QB

Missouri

96

1A

8. Nick Fairley

DT

Auburn

96

1A

10. Tyron Smith

OT

USC

95

 

To draft anybody other than these guys at the #4 pick would be a complete travesty because it would not be a good value pick, and with 8 guys clearly rated as top draft material, the Bengals should be able to hit one of them. Even trading down to #8 ensures them 1 of the elite studs in this year’s draft.

 

Assuming we stay at #4....the draft is rich in DE’s and we already have a few of them on the roster, so I’m going to eliminate Bowers from consideration from that list. Also, we have a bigger need at OG than OT, with Whit on the left and Collins/Smith on the right. So I’m going to pass on Tyron. V Miller would be a good value, but I’m not sure he would get utilized right in our 4-3, so I’ll skip past him. That leaves the rest.

 

So I’d say Green / Dareus / Peterson / Gabbert are the only 4 players that the Bengals should be looking at with the #4 overall pick. Any selection other than these guys at #4 overall would either be a reach (and therefore not a good value for as high as we would be picking them) or would be taking a player in a position that isn’t as big of a need for us.




This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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