The week leading up to the draft always generates a lot of whacky buzz that gets taken way out of context.  This year the buzz is "400 QBs to be drafted in Round 1".  The QB class of 2011 is pretty good, but this isn't 1983.  Heck, I'm not even sure it's 2010.

Using the draft grades from ProFootballWeekly, I put all the QB prospects since 2009 into one list to see how they compare.  Only Joe Flacco was drafted in Round 1 with a grade lower than 5.70.  That translates into Gabbert, Newton and Locker as to having 1st round potential - which is pretty much the draft gurus have been saying since February.  Only recently have the regular media folks been trying to throw Ponder, Dalton and even Kaepernick into the mix.

To see if there's a way to predict the draft position, I used regression analysis.  The results are shown in the Expected column.  This isn't a perfect tool since it doesn't really take overall ranking (OR) or team need or NFL irrationality into acount, but it does put the numbers into clear perspective.

Flacco, Brohm and Clausen are the only outliers in PFW's grades, so I'd put more faith in this than draft buzz via Twitter.  When you realize that Ponder is grouped with John David Booty, Erik Ainge, John Skelton and John Parker Wilson you might start to get a little nervous.

I'm shocked that Mallet is graded so poorly but what do I know...buyer beware for sure!