FanPost

Putting the current QB hype in perspective

The week leading up to the draft always generates a lot of whacky buzz that gets taken way out of context.  This year the buzz is "400 QBs to be drafted in Round 1".  The QB class of 2011 is pretty good, but this isn't 1983.  Heck, I'm not even sure it's 2010.

Using the draft grades from ProFootballWeekly, I put all the QB prospects since 2009 into one list to see how they compare.  Only Joe Flacco was drafted in Round 1 with a grade lower than 5.70.  That translates into Gabbert, Newton and Locker as to having 1st round potential - which is pretty much the draft gurus have been saying since February.  Only recently have the regular media folks been trying to throw Ponder, Dalton and even Kaepernick into the mix.

To see if there's a way to predict the draft position, I used regression analysis.  The results are shown in the Expected column.  This isn't a perfect tool since it doesn't really take overall ranking (OR) or team need or NFL irrationality into acount, but it does put the numbers into clear perspective.

Prospect

OR

School

Grade

Drafted

Expected

Sam Bradford

3

Oklahoma

7.25

1

1

Matt Ryan

3

Boston College

7.00

3

2

Matthew Stafford

1

Georgia

6.60

1

6

Jimmy Clausen

12

Notre Dame

6.37

48

12

Blaine Gabbert

8

Missouri

6.35

 

12

Mark Sanchez

12

USC

6.35

5

12

Josh Freeman

25

Kansas State

6.20

17

18

Cam Newton

23

Auburn

5.99

 

32

Tim Tebow

31

Florida

5.97

25

33

Chad Henne

31

Michigan

5.90

57

40

Colt McCoy

38

Texas

5.90

85

40

Brian Brohm

34

Louisville

5.85

56

45

Jake Locker

34

Washington

5.77

 

56

Joe Flacco

69

Delaware

5.55

18

100

Ricky Stanzi

65

Iowa

5.53

 

105

Colin Kaepernick

67

Nevada

5.51

 

111

Armanti Edwards

72

Appalachian State

5.51

89

111

Andy Dalton

73

TCU

5.47

 

123

Andre Woodson

98

Kentucky

5.40

198

148

Christian Ponder

96

Florida State

5.39

 

151

Erik Ainge

109

Tennessee

5.39

162

151

John David Booty

110

USC

5.39

137

151

Josh Johnson

122

San Diego

5.37

160

160

John Parker Wilson

108

Alabama

5.37

275

160

John Skelton

119

Fordham

5.37

155

160

Mike Kafka

123

Northwestern

5.36

122

164

Tony Pike

130

Cincinnati

5.35

204

168

Dennis Dixon

138

Oregon

5.33

156

177

Stephen McGee

129

Texas A&M

5.33

101

177

Levi Brown

139

Troy

5.33

209

177

Rhett Bomar

146

Sam Houston State

5.30

151

192

Ryan Mallett

141

Arkansas

5.29

 

197

Kevin O'Connell

175

San Diego State

5.23

94

230

Dan LeFevour

180

Central Michigan

5.23

181

230

Flacco, Brohm and Clausen are the only outliers in PFW's grades, so I'd put more faith in this than draft buzz via Twitter.  When you realize that Ponder is grouped with John David Booty, Erik Ainge, John Skelton and John Parker Wilson you might start to get a little nervous.

I'm shocked that Mallet is graded so poorly but what do I know...buyer beware for sure!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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