Let's be Realistic (sort of)

by whodeysmack85 on Aug 7, 2011 1:35 PM EDT

Let’s be realistic: Our Cincinnati Bengals aren’t making the playoffs. It isn’t happening. Look at the division and ask yourself these questions:

-Are we better than the Pittsburgh Steelers?

Of course not

-Are we better than the Baltimore Ravens?

Not by a longshot

-Are we better than the Cleveland Browns?

As hard as it is to say, sadly most likely no

If for some odd reason you found yourself answering yes to 2/3 of those questions, ask yourself this:
-Are we better than the New York Jets or New England Patriots?
-Are we better than the Indianapolis Colts or Houston Texans?

Not a chance in HELL.
Therefore, we have no chance of winning a wild card spot…or the division for that matter.

So exactly who are we and where do we fit in this picture? It’s true that the core of this team won the division in 2009. However, it’s also true that the core of this team is now “retired in California” and “livin large” in Houston. I’m talking about Carson Palmer and Jonathan Joseph of course. In order to win NOW we need those men back. Face it, we aren’t winning many games this season. Seven or Eight MAX. However, to win in the FUTURE—we’re set. Here’s why

The Bengals have drafted EXCEPTIONALLY well over the last four years. The Bengals are one of the youngest teams in the National Football League. All this team needs is three or four years of game experience and they will be ready to COMPETE for an AFC CHAMPIONSHIP. Yes I said it.

I expect Cedric Benson to receive a contract extension after this season. He will be the workhorse for the next 5 years in Cincinnati. The offensive line is built around the RUN not the PASS. Expect more running plays from new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. AJ Green will soon emerge as one of the top five receivers in the National Football League. Jermaine Gresham is without a doubt a top five talent tight end. The defense will struggle for a couple years, but with two more years of drafting to fill the holes left by this offseason and injuries, the line backing and defensive back vacancies will be filled. Throw this in with a premiere defensive front (Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson) and the Bengals will soon again be a top 10 defense. However, there is ONE FACTOR that can kill this whole process. It can set the Bengals back 5 or 6 years. A promising young team could easily transform into a perennial bottom feeder (like it is now) for the long haul. The key is: ANDY DALTON

Every time you invest a high draft pick in a Quarterback, you run the risk of him becoming a bust. Look at what’s happening with Alex Smith in San Francisco. The coaches keep holding out hope that he will blossom into the star they hoped he would become, but in hindsight, they’ve wasted valuable football seasons. The 49ers had a defense easily good enough to win over the last four years. But because of the niner’s lagging offense, the team was unable to reach its full potential. The same story could very well be happening in Denver with Tim Tebow. Or in Cincinnati for that matter.

Luckily for the Bengals, Andy Dalton was a SECOND round draft selection so there is less pressure to play him. But when your other options at Quarterback are Bruce Gradkowski, Dan LeFevour, and Jordan Palmer…odds are that Dalton plays. All Andy Dalton needs to do to be successful is be a game manager. Make good decisions. Hand the ball off. Execute short timing routes. Sell play action passes and move out of the pocket. He does not need to be running a no huddle offense, reading defenses, and calling plays himself like we often see Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning doing. If he is able to manage the game successfully, I see this Bengal team having a bright future… and perhaps a legacy as well. Do I hear Super Bowl?

Poll

How quickly can the Bengals reach the Super Bowl?

This Year!

20 votes

2-3 Years

57 votes

4-5 Years

27 votes

Not happening this decade

29 votes

Never happening

21 votes

154 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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Comments

-Are we better than the Cleveland Browns?

As hard as it is to say, sadly most likely no

Like hell we’re not. Our defense will be significantly better than the Browns’ defense and we’ve got the best receiving group in the division after the Ravens cut bait with Heap.

by Doc Scratch on Aug 7, 2011 5:40 PM EDT reply actions

I had a similar thought,,,

Cleveland and us were roughly on par last year, so it’s a question of who took a bigger step forward. Baltimore took a step back.

by Boomer Lion on Aug 7, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Cleveland overachieved a lot to get its five wins, especially the ones over NE and NO.

Both were ridiculous performances driven by Peyton Hillis and their defense. The former’s injury-prone and fumble-prone and the latter is quite literally changing. They’re changing defensive fronts, so that’s going to take a good year for them to see how well they’re going to do and I don’t expect that entire team to handle the change too well. I’ll be amazed if it finishes in the upper half of the league and, if it does, I’ll be scared of what it can do next year.

Meanwhile, we greatly underachieved.

And Baltimore took a step back but they were still way ahead of us. So was Pittsburgh.

by Doc Scratch on Aug 7, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions

We also underachieved graetly last year.

It must be inordinately taxing to be such a boob. ~ The Brain

by jim0ijk on Aug 8, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Hillis overachieved,

but I think McCoy is the real deal. He looks like a top-flight leader, and he’ll improve as a passer.

Home of the original Kitten Mittens.

by Pardon_My_French on Aug 8, 2011 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Lets be REAL

1st of all, anything is possible. The teams in our division deserve respect. Pitt and Balt are some of the best teams in the NFL. But CLV is below us at this point. If the Bengals stop they run game what else do they have. U cant put CLV defense in the same boat as the Bengals. If the Bengals young offense get going they are just as talented as anyone. With the young offense we have i believe the advantage is the Bengals. Aint much tape on them our JG offense. So we can surprise teams. But beeing real i believe the Bengals will loose games because of them being young not being being outplayed by other teams.

by i am will on Aug 7, 2011 6:26 PM EDT reply actions

Pittsburgh beat us on turnovers last year. With some more ball control this year, and a few big plays by recievers who are hungry, not bored, anything could happen.

It must be inordinately taxing to be such a boob. ~ The Brain

by jim0ijk on Aug 8, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed here......

I think it’s easy to forget how close some of those losses were. Had Benson not fumbled against Atlanta to jump start that comeback, had we ran the ball against Tampa vs. throwing a pick, had Gresham not fumbled vs. Indy, etc. etc. etc. we could have easily won 4-5 more games. A game of inches, sometimes youth is a good thing.

by The Van Buren Boys on Aug 8, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Push

I agree with what’s been said. It was hard for me to put Cleveland ahead of the Bengals and I only did it based on what we saw on the field last season. Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis were only on the field togehter for a few games but they seemed to really make the offense click. I would agree that we have a brighter future than Cleveland, but I’m still not entirely sure we finish ahead of them this season. If we do, it will be more attributed to our easy schedule than our greater talent

by whodeysmack85 on Aug 7, 2011 6:49 PM EDT reply actions

Talent wise we win out over Cleveland by quite a bit.....fundamentally, Cleveland got the edge from last year......

that’s why they had the better record. I think many on here are basing there opinions off of talent and potential, but we’ve all seen that doesn’t always translate onto the field (last year, exhibit A). We had been talking about a sure-fire playoff run at this time last year with all the talent we had, but we couldn’t piece it together. With a fresh start and young talent our future could very well be bright……but only W’s will make that argument.

by The Van Buren Boys on Aug 8, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

cleveland has a good oline

And hillis. They are in the same boat we are. If their young talent comes together they can be good. I’m not sure either team is better than the other at this point. We should be better on defense but they do have some players where they can be decent too. Ward, haden, dqwell, and rubin. So overall, until we see Dalton, and they see mccoy I think the teams are even.

by JCompton41 on Aug 7, 2011 7:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Hillis gave us fits last year.

We have to stop him to beat the Browns, but we may be able to get up on them early and force McCoy to beat us.

It must be inordinately taxing to be such a boob. ~ The Brain

by jim0ijk on Aug 8, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

hillis is a monster

Perfect back in the afcn. Rey needs to be able to tackle him at the line, and that won’t be easy. Peko and geathers will be the run stoppers on dline, so a lot depends on them.

by JCompton41 on Aug 8, 2011 1:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I feel like you are yelling at me with all the caps lock :'(

"You gotta look good. Look good, you play good. Play good, pay good. Pay good, live good. Live good, y'know, eat good. Die good." - Deion Sanders

by BeWarned on Aug 7, 2011 10:24 PM EDT reply actions

actually finished reading the article now...

On Ced, he will be the workhorse for 5 years ? really? Do you have any idea how long Runningbacks last in this league?

Overall a good analysis, though.

"You gotta look good. Look good, you play good. Play good, pay good. Pay good, live good. Live good, y'know, eat good. Die good." - Deion Sanders

by BeWarned on Aug 7, 2011 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Let's not... and say we did!

Be realistic I mean! Hell this is the stuff of dreams! I’d rather dream and hope, and if the realityyou speak of is less than that, well so what???

Who Dey all the way to the Superbowl – THIS YEAR!

2012 - Playoff bound!!!

by Law1951 on Aug 8, 2011 1:02 AM EDT reply actions

Pre-season is the time of dreams.

I can be realistic in December.

by Boomer Lion on Aug 8, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Dalton and our QBs

I agree that we can’t really be too optimistic for this season. Last year, we underachieved, but this year, our offense is clearly rebuilding. I think 6-10 is realistic, if our defense is totally awesome, we may have a winning record, but if not, I don’t think we can count on our offense to win too many games for us.

Your last point about Dalton doesn’t really make much sense to me. The “bust rate” for first round QB selections is about 44%. But even with that, the overwhelming number of QBs that start in the NFL are first rounders, it’s hard to argue that by drafting a Qb later, you increase the chance of him succeeding. Perhaps expectations are lower, but that doesn’t equal success. Depending on who you define as a starter, about 60% of the starters in the NFL were selected in the first round. It’s also pretty obvious that the “stud” QBs (QBs that start a lot of games and consistently perform) are even more skewed towards the first round. I’m not saying there aren’t Tom Brady’s and Brett Favre’s to be had, but the further you move away from Round 1, the more likley you end up with Brian Bohm and dare I say it, Bruce Gradkowski.

Do I want Dalton to succeed and be the next Kenny Anderson? Yes. Do I think it’s very possible the Bengals will be drafting another Qb in 2 years. Yes.

If everything breaks right, we may have a very competitive team in 2-3 years. It’s also just as likely that we will be rebuilding…again.

by goffchile on Aug 8, 2011 10:07 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

There is pressure to start Dalton because we don’t have anyone better.

Our offense is young and talented, but Detroit had young talented offenses for the last decade and failed. I am optimistic, but the team needs to win early to gain confidence for this season. We could win ten games this year, but if we start slow we could win four instead.

It must be inordinately taxing to be such a boob. ~ The Brain

by jim0ijk on Aug 8, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Dalton isn't the key

I think the key to this year and the future is Jay Gruden. Everyone talks about how talented our wide recievers are and how good our QB is. Well, last year at this time our recievers were considered possibly the best in the NFL, and Palmer was setting up for another pro bowl year. And we all saw how well that worked out. With the tools we had last year, the only reason you could have for our offensive futility was Bratkowski, who (finally) got shown the door. So we brought in Jay Gruden (who I must admit I’m unsure of…I don’t like that his only claim to fame is having a famous brother, but ANYONE is better than Brat), who’s now trying to install a brand new offense crash-course style.

I don’t see Dalton being the next Brady/Manning, but I think he could be a serviceable Orton/Cutler/Flacco level QB. Green could have a good few years here before he leaves in free agency, Caldwell and Shipley will be adaquate, and I’m holding my breath on Simpson…3 good games doesn’t cancel out three years of riding the pine. But all of that doesn’t matter if Jay can’t get them to play into his system. Last year proved that no matter how good your players are, they won’t succeed if the system their playing in doesn’t work.

This doesn’t help us with the Steelers/Ravens, but the good news on that front is that the Browns are in the almost exact same boat, installing a new offense and OC. I think if Jay Gruden can cut it here in the NFL, then in the next few years we may have some hope for an AFCN championship or maybe even a playoff win (no super bowl though… That won’t happen until Mike Brown is pushing up daisies, thus lifting the curse or something like that). But if Jay turns into Brat 2.0 or something worse than that, I expect nothing but tears and raked leaves on Sundays.

by Black&Orange on Aug 8, 2011 12:02 PM EDT reply actions

Let's be real...

I feel like it’s superbowl or bust every year! It’s why they play and y we watch as fans, y i watch anyway! I damn sure dont watch to see them lose or go 8-8 or whatever the predictions are… All of our young talent 5 years from now, guess what? 50% of them will be gone due to free agency! Why can’t they win it this year? Cus there young??? F that… Big Red (Dalton) just needs to be smart with the ball, the defense needs to do what they’ve been doing for the last 3 years under Zim and Lewis’s tuteledge! Our D will be in more zones this year with the lost of Jjoe but if that’s what it takes so be it! The Bengals will have a chance to win like every other team in the Nfl…

by Dwight Carter on Aug 8, 2011 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

If they focus on running the ball, passing when they have to, and converting 3rd downs this team will go far! The defense plays best when they play on schedule… meaning when the offense scores or punts! It seemed to faulter after turnovers… The offense will be basic but explosive! Catch a 5 yrd slant or a screen or a curl and have the weapons to break a tackle and move in 10-15yrds further down field! The Weapons we have on Offense have not even been tapped… Scott will be used, Simpson, Green, Shipley, Gresham, caldwell, coffman, and Benson to name a few… As far as Dalton… Every body keeps complaining about him checking down! So the F what… As long as the ball keeps moving forward who cares! If the defense try to take it away Dalton will take advantage of it! Every Elite QB throw it to the check down! Peyton had abdi, Brees had reggie, Brady has faulk now whitehead! Check downs get you 4-5 yards too! This season is going to be great! Big Red is learning the offense and at the least he’ll know where to go with the ball vice throwing a pick 6 or getting sacked right???

by Dwight Carter on Aug 8, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I wish

I wish I could believe that but I just can’t. You can’t expect that much from Andy Dalton that quickly. Nobody wants to see them lose but some seasons you just need to be realistic

by whodeysmack85 on Aug 8, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

look at the recent QB's drafted and started game one...

Sanchez, Flacco, Ryan, Bradford… 3 of the 4 of them behind and good defense and good running game have made it to the playoffs multiple times… Why can’t that be Dalton? Why can’t he lead the team to greatness? He was drafted because he’s a winner right? Why can’t the Bengals get there shit together and make the playoffs? It’s already been said that they are going to run the ball more this season. It’s been said that Coach gruden is going to utlilze the talent he has on the team right! What has been the strength of the Bengals the past 3 years? The Defense! Is that going to go away? No, is a more timid QB who knows when to check down going to make him a game manager, yes… Yes it is! The focus for this years offense is to run the ball, convert short yardage downs, and utilyze the talent the team has! Sounds good to me! The recipe for success is there, if it translate on the field they’ll get to the playoffs… I’ll be realistic when realistic gets here! Who Dey =)!

by Dwight Carter on Aug 8, 2011 2:30 PM EDT reply actions