FIRST ROUND RB’S....THE LAST 6 YEARS

by ephram on Jan 31, 2012 3:51 PM EST

2011 M Ingram – didn’t do much his first season. Couldn’t push much lower drafted guys like D Sproles, P Thomas, or C Ivory, etc... out of his way

2010 CJ Spiller – considered an “explosive” top 10 pick, who promptly got stuck behind UFA Fred Jackson and relegated to “receiver” duties (until Fred got hurt)

2010 R Mathews – supposedly a complete back taken #12 overall. Has struggled to fend off much lower drafted M Tolbert from hawking 1/2 his carries, but has been farily good.

2010 J Best – nothing more than in injury prone version of LaMichael James. Is in no way a “feature” back. Another bad season could dump him into the “bust” category?

2009 K Moreno – Was supposed to be a complete back taken #12 overall. Did nothing for 2 seasons, then got hurt and replaced by an old journeyman McGahee who completely outplayed him

2009 D Brown – a bust on a near Chris Perry level

2009 B Wells – Played 2nd fiddle to Tim Hightower, then ARI drafted a RB to replace him, and finally got a shot this year when the starter (R Williams) got hurt preseason

2008 D McFadden – Taken #4 overall, and looks the part of a true stud RB worthy of a #4 overall slot. Has great speed, catches the ball well, runs inside & out. But can’t stay healthy and therefore doesn’t produce much.

2008 J Stewart – A good RB, but in a platoon and has never been able to showcase if he can do anything.

2008 F Jones – More of an outside runner who really shouldn’t have been a round 1 guy. Hasn’t done much and has lost his role to a round 3 RB (DeMarco)

2008 R Mendenhall – Has had a good career. Nothing about him is elite, but he’s good.

2008 C Johnson – Great RB worthy of his round 1 draft spot. Great speed. Catches well. Is wearing down already, though.

2007 A Peterson – stud RB.

2007 M Lynch – struggled in BUF, getting benched for UFA Fred Jackson. Got shipped out to SEA, and finally after 4 bad years, shined in 2011.

2006 The infamous “Reggie Bush” sweepstakes was on in 2006 (much like the 2011 “Suck for Luck”), and HOU won the right to pick Bush, but chose a DE, which promptly got Charlie Casserley fired. Bush fell to #2 overall, and has been totally unimpressive in 5 seasons for the Saints. Finally had a good campaign for Miami, but is their #2 RB.

2006 L Maroney – Never really did much. Fizzled before he ever took off.

2006 D Williams – Has size, speed, etc... Had 1 great season, and some good seasons, but is stuck in a platoon so it’s hard to tell how good he really is.

2006 J Addai – had a few good seasons on a potent Indy team, but was never great. Faded into obscurity rather quickly.

2005 R Brown – Supposedly amazing back from the SEC with all the tools. Was pretty good, but never as great as a #2 overall pick would warrant. Faded very quickly from the starter’s role.

2005 Ced Benson – Was supposed to be the complete stud RB with a great pedigree, and taken #4 overall. Struggled to unseat Thomas Jones, and ended up in Cincy as a reclamation project. Is so “good” that we are desperate to replace him and his 3.5ypc.

2005 C Williams – The Cadillac was a reach at #5 overall, and has responded with 1 decent rookie season, but has struggled with injuries and suckiness ever since.

A lot of these guys are fairly good, but only 2 of those RB’s have really become “great” or “elite” in Chris Johnson & A Peterson. Although Johnson is already showing signs of wearing down, as his yards, YPC, and TD’s are all continually dropping since his 1 big season.

(I think McFadden could reach that elite plateau if he could stay healthy)

So 2 elite RB’s taken since 2005, but many more “busts” – L Maroney, K Moreno, D Brown, F Jones

I get that Trent Richardson is this year’s “stud/elite” back. And he could end up being fairly decent, but a lot of guys over the last 6 years entered the draft as “elite/stud” RB’s, and they don’t all pan out. Richardson doesn’t have Chris Johnson’s or McFadden’s speed, nor does he have Peterson’s elusive shiftiness. So best case, Richardson ends up as a “good/decent” back like a Benson, Ronnie Brown, or Marshawn Lynch type. Although worst case, Richardson could end up as another Knowshon Moreno or Felix Jones, sitting at 2nd string somewhere other than where he was drafted, in 4 years.

So my main point is, just because Richardson is this year’s “best back” doesn’t automatically mean he is Peterson (which many posts seem to assume). Because looking over the past 6 years, there is a lot of carnage from the 1st round backs. It’s a short shelf life position, so unless Richardson is the 2nd coming of Barry Sanders, I just don’t see the value in using a 1st round pick on the guy, when the success of 1st round backs of late really hasn’t been much better (and maybe arguably worse?) than the RB’s drafted after round 1.

Those are my thoughts....feel free to shoot them down :-)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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Very good breakdown

by biggie22 on Jan 31, 2012 4:01 PM EST reply actions

this is a good breakdown

but I don’t think this is fairly argued. Take CJ Spiller and look at his stats the second half of the year. He was a dynamic player when Fred Jackson went down, averaging over 5 ypc and caught 2-9 passes every game. Ryan Matthews had over 1500 yards from srimmage and averaged almost 5ypc as well. Reggie Bush has been a difference maker for his whole career as a kick returner and receiver, and this year has made an impact as a RB as well averaging 5ypc.

Plus if I think if you break down other first round picks you’d find about the same thing. Many good players, only a few superstars, and a few busts as well.

I think the better argument here is that you shouldn’t draft a RB before you have your starting QB. Since we have a QB, and many other solid elements to this team, I think looking RB early in this draft is something that could make this team much much more competetive

by The Dealio on Jan 31, 2012 4:23 PM EST reply actions

i'm not sure if i'd call Bush a "difference maker"

In 2006 he finished 25th in punt return average
In 2007 he got demoted off punt returning
In 2008 had a great year returning punts, finishing 3rd
In 2009 was 27th in punt return average
In 2010 wasn’t very good at it
In 2011 was the backup returner.

Also, he only ever once led a team in rushing yards, and his receptions have dropped each year since his rookie year.

I’m not saying he’s a bad player…but i just don’t see Bush as a “difference maker”.

Spiller had a nice 5-game stretch over his 32 game career.
I guess next year will show if it was legit or a fluke. I don’t know.

by ephram on Jan 31, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions

difference maker

In 2009 Devin Hester was 41st in punt return average, and in 2008 he was 23rd in punt return yardage and even lower in average. he is not a "difference maker on his team then?

Before you say it, clearly Hester is a out of Bush’s league in terms of returning kicks, but Hester didn’t make nearly the contribution that Bush did in receiving and rushing. This is to say, numbers don’t tell the whole story

Take a look at scoring and break it down. From 2006-present he had 9, 6, 9, 8, 1 (clearly the outlier in his career), & 7 touchdowns and he did it through his versatility. In many ways, has he been a disappointment? yea, you could say that. But I think it is definitely fair to say that he is a “difference maker” and I’ll stick with it.

by The Dealio on Feb 2, 2012 1:42 AM EST up reply actions

^this

A lot of guys on this list have been slowed down due to injury and even so, very few of them would be labeled as busts. I also don’t feel like this is a very fair analysis of Richardson. To lump him in with Ronnie Brown and Marshawn Lynch as a “best case” projection is a little absurd when most scouts say that he has AP potential. Brown and Lynch would be more of a low-end projection for him (given that he stays healthy).

by Animal_Like_Football on Jan 31, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions

I agree but if want him

we are gonna have to pull the trigger in the 1st….. Cause someone will.

AD to AJ = TD!!

by Toasted_Orange_Monster on Jan 31, 2012 5:01 PM EST reply actions

One thing to note

Carolina thought so much of running back that they used a 06 first rounder on Williams then a 08 first rounder on Stewart. I found that interesting that they used 2 first rounders in such a short time on running backs. With that being said and John Fox being in Denver, it wouldn’t surprise me if Richardson gets to 14-15 or 16 that maybe they make a trade up to get him.

by EPK1979 on Jan 31, 2012 5:31 PM EST reply actions

it's funny though...they thought so much of the RB position that they took 2 close together

yet, it worked out so well that the coach got fired, and is now in Denver :-)

Kind of like Matt Millen and his WR’s in Detroit

by ephram on Jan 31, 2012 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

Hahaha

I see what your saying. But what I was trying to get at is Fox is a running back junky and they are a heavy run team. So it wouldn’t surprise me if they tried to trade with Jets to get in front of us, if Richardson happens to slide.

by EPK1979 on Jan 31, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

you can make a lists of busts at every position

If you feel a player has elite or stud potential take him regardless of positions history.

by JCompton41 on Jan 31, 2012 7:27 PM EST via mobile reply actions

but only if it's a good value

If a stud punter is available, no way i want him with pick #17 overall….regardless of how studly he is

Trent Richardson is good, but he’s not Chris Johnson / Adrian Peterson level good.

by ephram on Jan 31, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions

"Trent Richardson is good, but he’s not Chris Johnson / Adrian Peterson level good"

Umm ok

by Oregonbengalsfan on Jan 31, 2012 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

of course punter, kicker

And who’s to say he isn’t on that level?

by JCompton41 on Jan 31, 2012 9:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

perhaps richardson is a huge bust

i’d still be willing to take that gamble. on paper he’s pretty much what the bengals need and haven’t had since before rudi faded away.

"the bengals are not a west of the 104 longitude team."

by palewook on Feb 1, 2012 4:52 AM EST up reply actions

This is a really great breakdown

I would love to see some info on stats for all running backs in later rounds of the past few drafts. I feel like running back productivity is so dependent on O-line play.

by JerseyBengal on Jan 31, 2012 10:24 PM EST reply actions

lol you left out 2004

as a bengals fan i understand, none of us likes to acknowledge that running back draft in the 1st..

"the bengals are not a west of the 104 longitude team."

by palewook on Feb 1, 2012 4:50 AM EST reply actions

i didn't "leave any seasons out", i just stopped after going back a while becuase i don't want to write a 10,000 page post

I hate it when Ephram uses data & facts to refute my unfounded opinions....No chocolate chip cookies for him!!!

by ephram on Feb 1, 2012 7:22 AM EST up reply actions

thought it was awesome you stopped right before that year

that year that makes every long time bengals fan groan. jackson. perry. there i said it.

"the bengals are not a west of the 104 longitude team."

by palewook on Feb 1, 2012 8:10 AM EST up reply actions

Richardson appears to be the best RB prospect since AP,

so I get the hype about him. But I agree with the other points. I think teams know better now, but they used to get carried away with productive, athletic RBs and pick them early, regardless of who’s around them. If the Bengals want to take a RB in the 1st, fine. I just hope it’s a guy they really like and not just the “highest-ranked” RB left on the board when we’re picking.

I'm throwin' rocks tonight! Mark it, Dude.

by Pardon_My_French on Feb 1, 2012 10:13 AM EST reply actions

Ok ih he's there and you pass up on him, who are you picking instead?

Don’t say DeCastro because it’s likely that neither one of these two fall to us

by messjunk on Feb 1, 2012 4:55 PM EST reply actions

Statistically speaking....

I’m not for taking a RB in the first round. Chris Perry killed it for me. Taking the BPA is a must, but not for risky picks that may not have long careers. I think we need to fix the O-line whether it be FA or the draft. I guess it really depends on their moves in FA.

by DonMegga on Feb 1, 2012 10:32 PM EST reply actions

This is basically a rehash of the same type of argument people used against drafting A.J. Green last year.

“First round receivers are terrible, there’s no point in taking them, they suck, have a high bust rate, take a CB or QB, they’re safer, whine whine whine.”

We’re not stupid here. Some people might say “we need a RB just take the best available at 17 even if it’s Doug Martin or Isaiah Pead!” But a majority of us possess enough intelligence to realize that Richardson is a back on another level and that his skillset, build, and talents speak for themselves, rather than point to an incredible year backed up by a couple of lousy ones before he “put it all together.” He was always regarded as more talented than Ingram, and people tout him to be the best back since AP/RunDMC to come out. That’s the type of talent you take a flyer on at 17, regardless of your beliefs about the position.

It was the same with Green a year ago. People said to take Patrick Peterson if he was available, that the CB was going to be necessary because we couldn’t retain Joseph (fun fact, we nearly did), and there were some calling for Newton or oddly enough Gabbert around here to replace Palmer. None of them wanted the “shiny hood ornament” because you need an elite QB and strong line play to win championships, not skill positions players. While people seem to stick to that vein of thinking year-round (there’s still a good chunk of people pining for DeCastro), the number of people wanting Richardson is a little higher than the people who wanted Green last year.

"It’s time people started realizing just how good a player Carlos Dunlap already is, and that starts with the Bengals. They gave him a season-high 58 snaps and what was the result? Carnage on the right side of the Seattle line." -Pro Football Focus

by Doc Scratch on Feb 2, 2012 1:11 AM EST reply actions

People can cite Chris Perry and Kenny Irons.

That’s fine—people cited Warrick last year. I don’t really care. I’d take Richardson because he’s the best upgrade to Benson available at the moment. DeCastro would also be fine, but there are upgrades to Big Bobbie Williams available in FA, such as Grubbs or Nicks, albeit Williams has to come back willing to be a back-up. Boling should be groomed as the LG, not the RG, as that’s his natural position and he seems to be one of those technician guys.

by Doc Scratch on Feb 2, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions