Lately alot of Bengals fans have stated that it wouldn't be a giant loss if Gruden took the Jacksonville HC postioin. I tend to disagree and think it would be a major set back for our offense. But that's another story, my point here is that if Jay Gruden went to Jacksonville, he would be a 3yr and done coach, (see Raheem Morris & Steve Spagnuolo). This isn't to say that Gruden won't be a good coach, just that the Jacksonville gig is a death trap.
1. Obstacle number 1, is the GM, Gene Smith. While Marvin Lewis has hit the draft jackpot recently, Gene Smith has not. A matter of fact Gene Smith has drafted more busts then the terminated Jerry Angelo. And the future HC of Jacksonville can only coach the talent around him, and as along as Smith is the GM, then there won't be much talent at all.
2. Obstacle number 2, is the OL. Gruden inherited Whitworth & Smith, and an OL that is top 5 in pass protection. The Jacksonville OL is rated 26th in pass protection in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. The OL is horrible, and unable to protect a franchise QB.
3. This takes us to Obstacle number 3, the franchise QB. According to the Jaguars website, the new owner has named Blaine Gabbert the franchise QB, and the incoming coach has to work with him. The pros for Gabbert is that he was just a rookie last year, and had one of the worse OL's protecting him. The downsides for Gabbert is that his decision making is terrible, his passes aren't accurate, and overall he looks worse then Mark Sanchez under center. Football Outsiders has Gabbert ranked as 47th out of 47 for QB's in 2011. OUCH! Furthermore even Jay's famous brother Jon Gruden has publicly stated that if he ran the Jags, then he would seriously consider drafting another QB to replace Gabbert.
4. The 4th obstacle is the recieving corps, or lack there of. Jacksonville has the worse recieving corps in all of football, thanks to Gene Smith. Jay Gruden got AJ Green via the draft, and inherited Jerome Simpson and Jermaine Gresham. Mike Thomas who is declared the best WR for the Jags, was rated as the 4th worse WR in the NFL according to Football Outsiders, so the incoming coach would inherit nothing.
5. The final obstable is the team's only bright spot, and that is the defense. In 2010 Football Outsiders rated the Jags defense as no. 32 in the NFL. Last year they finished the season as a top 5 Defense, largely due to DC Mel Tucker. If Mel Tucker isn't given the HC position, then it is largely thought that he will leave the team.
The incoming HC has the tall order of replacing Tucker, and that won't be easy.
So in conclusion I feel that Gruden will be a good HC some day, just not in Jacksonville where he will be hampered by a terrible GM, the worse QB in football, no OL, no WRs, and the possibility of the defense taking a step back.