FanPost

WHAT TO DRAFT IN ROUND 1 – A PRIMER

I took a look at the 2012 ProBowl rosters (starters, backups & alternates) since that is a good collection, more or less, of who the best players are in the NFL.

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Then I looked up what rounds each of these players were drafted in.

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Then I compared the Positions vs. the Rounds to determine what success each position has by round.

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The primary objective of this exercise is with Cincy having 2 first round picks....what does it make sense to take in round 1?

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Position, and % of pro-bowlers from this position drafted in round 1:

Oh, I eliminated FB because they were both UFA’s, and I didn’t want to put them as RB because the RB #’s were already low enough.

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LB...77% (so 77% of the “elite” LB’s are taken in the 1st round)

QB...75%

OT...71%

CB...71%

DT...63%

DE...56%

OL...46% (OG + C)

WR...40%

TE...40%

RB...33%

S...33% (so only 33% of the elite Safeties are taken in round 1)

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* I was surprised that LB is the most successful position from round 1 in that 77% of all the “elite” LB’s came from the first round. Maybe Keith Rivers didn’t get the memo?

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* LB, QB, OT, CB were all above the 70% threshold, which seems to imply that if you want a stud at one of these positions, your best bet is to take one in round 1. The Bengals need a CB in 2012, so it makes sense to take one in round 1 (as opposed to waiting).

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* To all the Mark Barron lovers, it appears that only 33% of the “elite” safeties are coming from round 1. Meaning that you’re twice as likely to find a stud safety after round 1 than you are in round 1.

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* I found it interesting that only 33% of the best RB’s were taken in round 1. What made it more interesting is the DeCastro vs. Richardson debate in that an equal or higher # of RB’s are taken over interior o-linemen in round 1, but the RB’s only have a 33% representation in the pro-bowl, while the o-linement have a 46% representation, indicating that a round 1 drafted interior lineman is much more likely to pan out to be a stud whereas a round 1 RB is more of a risk.

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Looking at round 2 representation at the pro-bowl:

RB...45%

S...33%

WR...20%

TE...20%

CB...15%

QB...13%

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So my conclusion is that (generally) if the Bengals are looking for a safety or running back, they are better off waiting until round 2 (or later), as the round 1 success rates of those positions in round 1 isn’t very good. But if they are looking for a corner, linebacker, o-lineman or d-lineman, they are better off taking that player in round 1, as those have a higher chance of being elite.



This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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