FanPost

Predicting Andy Dalton & AJ Green 2nd year performance

AJ Green’s 2011 rookie season was the most prolific performance of any rookie WR since Marques Colston’s 2006 campaign when he put up nearly identical numbers. We all know that AJ Green had a great 2011, but how well is he likely to perform in 2012?

.

Looking at the “elite” 1st round picks to come out of the draft in the last decade (Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson & Dez Bryant) and looking at Colston, who similarly had an awesome rookie year, let’s look at how they performed in year 2.

.

name

draft

Year 1

Year 2

Andre Johnson

2003

66

976

4

79

1142

6

Larry Fitzgerald

2004

58

780

8

103

1409

10

Marquez Colston

2006

70

1038

8

98

1202

11

Calvin Johnson

2007

48

756

4

78

1331

12

Dez Bryant

2010

45

561

6

63

928

9

AJ Green

2011

65

1057

7

?

?

?

.

Comparing their year 2 with their year 1, they all improved.

They increased anywhere from 13~45 receptions, 166~629 yards, and 2~8 TD’s.

.

Yr1 to Yr2 change

rec

yd

td

Andre Johnson

13

166

2

Larry Fitzgerald

45

629

2

Marquez Colston

28

164

3

Calvin Johnson

30

575

8

Dez Bryant

18

367

3

average

27

380

4

.

So if AJ Green is in this elite company, it stands to reason that he too, could have a similar increase in his numbers. So I’ve taken the average increase from year 1 to year 2 for these elite WR’s and applied it to AJ Green.

.

name

draft

Year 1

Year 2

Andre Johnson

2003

66

976

4

79

1142

6

Larry Fitzgerald

2004

58

780

8

103

1409

10

Marquez Colston

2006

70

1038

8

98

1202

11

Calvin Johnson

2007

48

756

4

78

1331

12

Dez Bryant

2010

45

561

6

63

928

9

AJ Green

2011

65

1057

7

92

1437

11



Andy Dalton had a very good rookie campaign in 2011 also. While not as amazing as Green’s season, Daltons was very good – especially if you consider that he had a CBA-shortened preseason to prepare, and that he faced some of the best defenses in the NFL.

.

I compared Dalton to some fellow QB’s who were drafted in the last few years and also started early in their careers (Mat Ryan, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez and Colt McCoy).

.

I did not include:

Mathew Stafford because he really didn’t have a year 2, but went straight from year 1 to year 3.

Josh Freeman because his year 1 #’s are skewed because he only started 1/2 of that season

Sam Bradford because injuries wrecked his year 2.

.

year 1

year 2

name

draft

%

yd

td

int

rate

%

yd

td

int

rate

Matt Ryan

2008

61.1

3440

16

11

87.7

58.3

2916

22

14

80.9

Joe Flacco

2008

60.0

2971

14

12

80.3

63.1

3613

21

12

88.9

Chad Henne

2008

60.8

2878

12

14

75.2

61.4

3301

15

19

75.4

Mark Sanchez

2009

53.8

2444

12

20

63.0

54.8

3291

17

13

75.3

Colt McCoy

2010

60.8

1576

6

9

74.5

57.2

2733

14

11

74.6

Andy Dalton

2011

58.1

3398

20

13

80.4

?

?

?

?

?

.

Every QB saw a boost in their TD #’s, and other than Matt Ryan, ever other QB had an overall improved year 2 when compared to their year 1.

.

name

%

yd

td

int

rate

Matt Ryan

-2.8

-524

6

3

-6.8

Joe Flacco

3.1

642

7

0

8.6

Chad Henne

0.6

423

3

5

0.2

Mark Sanchez

1.0

847

5

-7

12.3

Colt McCoy

-3.6

1157

8

2

0.1

average

-0.3

509

6

1

2.9

.

So if Andy Dalton is as good as these fellow QB’s, then it stands to reason that he too could have a similar increase in his numbers that they had. So I’ve taken the average increase from year 1 to year 2 for these comparable QB’s and applied it to Andy Dalton.

.

year 1

year 2

name

draft

%

yd

td

int

rate

%

yd

td

int

rate

Matt Ryan

2008

61.1

3440

16

11

87.7

58.3

2916

22

14

80.9

Joe Flacco

2008

60.0

2971

14

12

80.3

63.1

3613

21

12

88.9

Chad Henne

2008

60.8

2878

12

14

75.2

61.4

3301

15

19

75.4

Mark Sanchez

2009

53.8

2444

12

20

63.0

54.8

3291

17

13

75.3

Colt McCoy

2010

60.8

1576

6

9

74.5

57.2

2733

14

11

74.6

Andy Dalton

2011

58.1

3398

20

13

80.4

57.8

3907

26

14

83.3

.

If those #’s do hold up for Andy Dalton, I don’t think too many people would complain. Interestingly, it would actually put him right in line with Carson’s average for yards, TD’s and INT’s from 2005~2007, which were his 3 best years in Cincy.

Dalton – 3907...26...14

Carson – 4001...29...15

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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