AJ Green’s 2011 rookie season was the most prolific performance of any rookie WR since Marques Colston’s 2006 campaign when he put up nearly identical numbers. We all know that AJ Green had a great 2011, but how well is he likely to perform in 2012?

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Looking at the “elite” 1st round picks to come out of the draft in the last decade (Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson & Dez Bryant) and looking at Colston, who similarly had an awesome rookie year, let’s look at how they performed in year 2.

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Comparing their year 2 with their year 1, they all improved.

They increased anywhere from 13~45 receptions, 166~629 yards, and 2~8 TD’s.

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So if AJ Green is in this elite company, it stands to reason that he too, could have a similar increase in his numbers. So I’ve taken the average increase from year 1 to year 2 for these elite WR’s and applied it to AJ Green.

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Andy Dalton had a very good rookie campaign in 2011 also. While not as amazing as Green’s season, Daltons was very good – especially if you consider that he had a CBA-shortened preseason to prepare, and that he faced some of the best defenses in the NFL.

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I compared Dalton to some fellow QB’s who were drafted in the last few years and also started early in their careers (Mat Ryan, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez and Colt McCoy).

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I did not include:

Mathew Stafford because he really didn’t have a year 2, but went straight from year 1 to year 3.

Josh Freeman because his year 1 #’s are skewed because he only started 1/2 of that season

Sam Bradford because injuries wrecked his year 2.

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Every QB saw a boost in their TD #’s, and other than Matt Ryan, ever other QB had an overall improved year 2 when compared to their year 1.

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So if Andy Dalton is as good as these fellow QB’s, then it stands to reason that he too could have a similar increase in his numbers that they had. So I’ve taken the average increase from year 1 to year 2 for these comparable QB’s and applied it to Andy Dalton.

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If those #’s do hold up for Andy Dalton, I don’t think too many people would complain. Interestingly, it would actually put him right in line with Carson’s average for yards, TD’s and INT’s from 2005~2007, which were his 3 best years in Cincy.

Dalton – 3907...26...14

Carson – 4001...29...15