I took at look at the NFL teams currently 0-3 or 1-2 trying to decide who is most likely to hold the #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft, based on how they have played so far.

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First off...Elimite the “good” teams that are not going to be anywhere near the #1 overall pick when the season ends:

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New Orleans – Yes, they are 0-3 with a horrible defense, but the offensive weapons are too great not to finish somehwere around 8-8.

New England – Most NFL fans would like to see them suck for a season, but their track record indicates they will turn it around and likely make the playoffs again.

Pittsburg – Like New England, they are too proven not to escape a top-5 draft pick.

Denver – Manning will continue to come around, and playing in the AFC West will only help.

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Secondly...Eliminate the teams that have a very close (>10) point differential between their points scored & points against. Assume they’ve just lost some close games but aren’t terrible.

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Miami – The defense has been good and Reggie Bush has finally found his groove.

Washington – Good QB & good running game. The defense needs to stop undermining the offense.

Detroit – Are 0-2 away from home, but have too many good pieces to hold the #1 overall pick in 2013.

Tampa Bay – They could possibly be in contention for the #1 overall pick, but there are some worse teams.

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Thirdly...who is left? How likely are they to finish with the #1 overall pick?

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Cleveland – EXTREMELY LIKELY. Behind rookies Weeden & Richardson, and a non-existent corps of WR’s and TE’s, the Browns are sporting one of the league’s worst offenses. Plus they are in a tough division that makes it even harder to avoid picking first.

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Tennessee – VERY LIKELY. Have the league’s worst defense by far and away so far, giving up almost 38 points per game. Their main offensive weapon is having another horrendous season, forcing them to rely on an unproven Jake Locker if they are going to have any chance to escape the #1 overall pick.

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St Louis – VERY LIKELY. Sam Bradford shows no improvement, they have no receivers, and their RB is nearing the end of his shelf life. Add in no O-Line, and a top 5 pick seem assured. They have a good chance for a #1 overall pick, playing in a division that suddenly looks solid.

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J’ville – LIKELY. Pocket Hercules is the lone weapon on an offense that is currently dead last in the AFC. Gabbert will need to show a huge improvement from 2011 to save them from a top 5 pick and a chance at the #1 overall pick.

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Indy – LIKELY. They gutted their team in the offseason to make a push at a long-term run. In the short-term they will struggle. Getting to play vs. TEN & JAX probably spares them from the #1 overall selection, but they could make a push for a top 5 pick.

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KC –LIKELY. They have good offensive weapons with J Charles, Cassel & Bowe, but the defense has been awful. Playing in the AFC West likely saves them from a #1 overall pick, but they are a strong candidate for a top 5~10 pick.

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Carolina – SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY. Cam is still running for TD’s (2 in 3 games), but nothing else is working well for Carolina. They had the #1 overall pick in 2011, and a top 10 pick in 2012. They could easily be in line for another top 10 pick in 2013.

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Oakland – SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY. Despite an upset come from behind win at home vs. PIT this week, their defense has been shredded the last few weeks. Playing in the AFC West helps them. With Mr. Pick-6 at QB and Mr. Talented-but-injury-waiting-to-happen at RB, the offense won’t be able to offset the defense. Only Lechler & Janikowski keep them from being a candidate for the #1 overall pick, which is too bad because receiving pick #33 from them would be nice :-)