Compensatory pick projection and a mock draft

I've decided to try and break down how we will be compensated with a compensatory pick this year. I'll admit, I'm not exactly sure how it works or how it will play out but here's what I was able to come up with as a basis for a projection. Also since it's seems to be the popular thing to do, I've included a mock draft with a compensatory pick:)

Here's the free agents that we both lost and gained in 2012 (I used the blockquote to pair players up)

Jonathan Fanene signed for 3 years 9.85 million - Did not play for NE

Should wash out

Travelle Wharton signed for 3 years 10 million- Did not play for us

Jerome Simpson signed for 1 year 825k – Was a contributor for the Vikings

Should wash out

Josh Brown signed for 1 year 825K – Was a contributor for us

Brandon Johnson signed for 1 year 700k – Was a part time contributor for the Steelers

Should wash out

Wallace Gilberry signed for 1 year 700k – Was a (very good) part time contributor for us

Cedric Benson signed for 1 year 825k - Was a full time starter before his injury for the Packers

Should wash out

Terrence Newman signed for 1 year 825k- Was a full time starter for us

Bobbie Williams signed for 2 years 2.925 million - Was a part time starter for the Ravens

Based on production should wash out

Jamaal Anderson signed for 2 years 5.5 million - Was not a contributor for us due to injury

Mike McGlynn signed for 2 years 1.95 million - Was a full time starter for the Colts

Based on production should wash out

Jason Allen signed for 2 years 8.2 million - Offered very little contribution to us due to injury

Andre Caldwell signed for 2 years 1.8 million - Offered very little contribution to the Broncos

Should wash out

John Connor signed for 2 years 1.2 million - Was signed mid–season and offered very little contribution too us

Armann Binns (rookie contract) - Was a part time starter who we lost late in the season

Should wash out

Richard Quinn (rookie contract) Offered very little contribution after we signed him late in the pre-season

The players above should basically wash each other with compensatory ramifications. The main discrepancy is we paid out roughly 8 million dollars more than we lost with the players listed so far, having said that we still have not accounted for the two former players who received the biggest off season deals this past year.

Frostee Rucker signed a 5 year 20.5 million deal and was a full time starter for the Browns.

Nate Livings signed a 5 year 18.7 million deal and was a full time starter for the Cowboys.

These are 2 pretty significant contracts (for every day starters) and when they are combined with the other FA contracts listed above it ends up totaling to about 30 million dollars signed away from us in free agency last year. I think that number alone will warrant us a pretty solid Compensatory pick, maybe even a 3rd or 4th rounder in this year’s upcoming draft.

Mock Draft

First Round - Kenny Vacarro S (TX) – If he’s here, we have to take him plain and simple. He’s a play making safety who can play both safety positions as well as CB in a pinch. He has the versatility and intelligence to fill Chris Crocker’s role as the QB of the defense with about 1000 times more upside, which will enable him to immediately improve our secondary.

*Second Round (Raider’s pick) – Eddie Lacey RB (AL) – He’s a powerful explosive back whose already worked well in a RB by committee approach and IMO he would not only compliment BJGE but also significantly improve our run game from day 1.

Second Round – DaTone Jones DE (UCLA) – He’s versatile enough to play inside or outside and has a ton of untapped potential. He frequently shows flashes of dominance, which is very intriguing with our defensive line rotation. At this point in his career he would be a significant upgrade over Robert Geathers.

*Third Round – Travis Kelchi (UC) – Anyone who watched the UC bowl game had a chance to see this 260 man absolutely run away from Dukes entire secondary. Not only is he a skilled and reliable receiver but he can block as well. I still believe there’s a place for both Gresham and Charles, especially with the mismatches they can provide but having a another TE that can block (well enough to improve the run game) as well being reliable receiving threat on 3rd down is something that we cannot under sell.

*Fourth Round - Kenjon Barner (OR) - Regardless of the level, in football speed kills! Just imagine for a second having a back who has legitimate potential to take it the house every time he touches the ball whether it be by handoff, swing pass, or even a downfield pass. I think Kenjon Barner can be a phenomenal complimentary back who can really expose a defense with a good game plan. Plus people forget, before DeAnthony Thomas came onto the scene Barner was actually a very dangerous punt and kick returner as well.

Fourth Round (Compensatory pick) – Gerald Hodges (PSU) – There’s a reason everyone seems to like LB’s that are converted safeties and it’s because (unlike one of our current LB’s) they are generally fast and solid in coverage. Hodges is another one of those LB’s who was a converted safety and on film he’s all over the field. I know Arthur Brown and Kasheem Green seem to be getting all the attention as the second tier LB’s in this draft but I think Hodges is every bit as good as either one of those guys, at least from what I've seen on film. He also provides significantly better value, especially if we can pick him up in the 4th round.

Fifth Round –Adrian Bushelle – CB (Louisville) - CB is tricky question this year because we may either be stacked or we may be screwed. Can Dre step up? Can Ghee finally be healthy? Does Newman have one more year? Are we going to resign to Pacman? Lot’s of questions at CB, I think we’re going to be fine but we learned two years ago (when we had to trade for Kelly Jennings, whose out of the league BTW) that you can never have to many quality CB’s on your roster. Bushelle is a phenomenal athlete who was highly recruited out of HS to Florida, he ended leaving Florida and following Charlie Strong to Louisville and although he’s had a nice career he always seems to be overlooked for some reason. If we can some how land him in the 5th round we may have very well found a hidden gem.

*Sixth Round – Marquise Goodwin WR (TX) – Marquise is an interesting prospect because when I first started watching him on film I was thinking I’m just watching another "track guy" whose been thrown onto the football field. But I have to admit, he really surprised me because he ended up not just being another track guy with great speed but he also appears to have some real football talent as well. I think his speed alone will be enough to get him on field right away as a down field threat but I also think he has the potential to be developed into a nice 2nd or 3rd WR in the NFL.

Sixth Round – Alex Hurst T (LSU) – Big, strong, and powerful. He was asked to move to left tackle from right tackle and failed miserably and then ended up leaving the team for a period time. Having said that, he was a stud right tackle and some people just have a hard time switching sides. As a right tackle, he was first all sec for two years in row on a top 10 team and then he just fell off the radar. He definitely has some talent and he’s definitely someone worth taking a chance on picking up, especially in the 6th round.

Two quick points.

Although I seriously debated about addressing offensive line early, I ultimately decided not to do so simply because I honestly do not think it's something the Bengals are going to address early this year unless they lose Andre Smith which I don't think will happen either. Not that I necessarily agree, but whether we like it or not I really believe the Bengals feel they already have there offensive line upgrades on the roster with a healthy Kyle Cook and a healthy Travelle Wharton.

As for LB, I also seriously debated taking an LB early but ultimately decided against that as well, mainly because if we resign Thomas Howard which I strongly believe we will do and if we move Burfict to the middle, which I also think we will do, we will only be in need of a SAM LB. There are going to be several terrific SAM LB's available on the FA market this year and they should be available at a relatively reasonable price as well, therefore I thought it might be smarter to go the FA route. We can then surround our young stud MLB (Vontaze Burfict) with two quality veterans OLB's on either side of him while he's learning a new role.

UDFA - Walter Stewart DE/LB - I'm still a little skeptical about his over all health but if he's actually cleared and passes a physical this kid from the University of Cincinnati would be an absolute steal as and un-drafted free agent pick up.

FA pick ups

Darly Smith OLB (from Jacksonville) 2 years 6.5 million - He's one of the better little known 4-3 SAM LB's in leagueand he's coming off a injury so he should be affordable. Everyone is projecting us to pick a MLB or WLB but assuming Howard comes back healthy (which he appears to be track to do) and Burfict moves to his natural position in the middle we actually need a SAM LB. As I said above, Darly Smith has proven to be one of the best SAM LB’s in the league over the last few years

Michael Jenkins CB (from Dallas) 2 years 4.5 million – I don’t know why but for some reason Mike Zimmer and the Bengals have had tremendous success rehabilitating former first rounds draft picks from the Dallas Cowboys. Mike Jenkins certainly has shown he has the physical tools to be good player in the past and I think with the proper coaching he can do that again so for the right price I’d certainly be willing to bring him on a short term deal.

Brandon Johnson OLB (from Pittsburgh) 2 years 1.6 million - He's proven he can play well in our system and IMO he's a significant upgrade over Dan Skuta, plus he can back up all 3 LB positions.

Josh Johnson QB (from Cleveland) 2 years 3.5 million (Completely forgot he was drafted to Tampa Bay when both John and Jay were both still there so he should at least be familiar with our system and I think he definitely still has some up size

FA to resign

Andrew Hawkins 3 years 5 million

Clark Harris 2 years 2.5 million

Josh Brown 2 years 3 million

Kevin Huber 3 years 6.0 million

Andre Smith (franchise tag and then mid season extension) 5 years 40 million

Wallace Gilberry 2 years 3.5 million

Michael Johnson 5 years 35 million

Pat Simms 3 years 5 million

Thomas Howard 2 years 6 million

Adam Jones 2 years 8.5 million

Chris Crocker 1 year 1 million

Players to cut; Jason Allen and Jamaal Anderson

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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