FanPost

How the Bengals will finish the season

There's a saying in the NFL it's not who you play but when you play them, implying that at various times of the season, teams are stronger or weaker depending on injuries or recent acquisitions by signing free agents or perhaps by trade.

I disagree. An organization called Cold Hard Facts several years ago came up with a formula to determine which games a team would have a better chance of losing and therefore how a team would finish based on the number of QUALITY OPPONENTS they had to face on their remaining schedule A QUALITY OPPONENT is defined as a team (after week 7) who has a record above .500 and who down the road would be almost certain losses for lousy teams and could even result in losses for good teams especially if the game was played on the road (for example Denver losing to Indy this past Sunday). And as you might have suspected by now a team with fewer QUALITY OPPONENTS remaining on its schedule has a better chance of winning more of its remaining 9 or 10 games.

There is one caveat for every team however. The starting QB has to stay healthy And for the Bengals that means Andy Dalton.

But assuming Dalton stays healthy I have good news for the fans of the Bengals. I have them making the playoffs.

Here's how it breaks down:

The Bengals now sit at 5-2 and have three QUALITY OPPONENTS left on their schedule, the Jets, the Chargers, and the Colts. I have the Bengals beating the Jets and the Colts but losing on the road at San Diego. That takes them to 3 losses. Then I have the Bengals losing two of three road games playing the Ravens, the Steelers and the Dolphins. That then takes the Bengals to 5 losses for the season. But since I have the Bengals beating the Colts and the Colts finishing with the same 11-5 record I have the Bengals at the #3 seed and the Colts at the #4 seed.

Finally here are the projected standings for the AFC based on their current records and number of QUALITY OPPONENTS remaining for each team:

1 Denver Broncos (6-1)------------------------13-3 (5 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

2 New England Patriots (5-2)------------------12-4 (1 QUALITY OPPONENT)

3 Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)--------------------11-5 (3 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

4 Indianapolis Colts (5-2)--------------------11-5 (2 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

WC:

5 Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)--------------------12-4 (5 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

6 New York Jets (4-3)-------------------------10-6 (2 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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