What will it cost to keep the 2 big free agents in Cincy?

ANDRE SMITH (RT)
Looking at 2012, here are the top 7 O-Lineman contracts:
• OG Carl Nicks (Saints) signed with Bucs: five-year, $47.5 M ($31 M guaranteed)
• OG Ben Grubbs (Ravens) signed with Saints: five-year, $36 M ($16 M guaranteed)
• C Scott Wells (Packers) signed with Rams: four-year, $25 M ($14 M guaranteed)
• LT Jared Gaither (Chargers) signed new deal: four-year, $24.6 M ($8 M guaranteed)
• RT Eric Winston (Texans) signed with Chiefs: four-year, $22 M (??? guaranteed)
• OG Evan Mathis (Eagles) signed new deal: five-year, $25 M ($7 M guaranteed)

Gaither was a mediocre LT, but got more $ than a better RT in Winston. Smith is comparable to, but a little better, than Winston, who got $22 / 4yr.

Based on Smith’s past with holding out and injuries, I’m guessing the Bengals go with a lower guarantee, but higher overall money.

With big name tackles like Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Sebastian Vollmer and Branden Albert all on the market with Smith, the supply will be high. That should lower the price down a little.

$28 / 4 years ($12 guaranteed)

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MICHEL JOHNSON (RT)
Looking at 2012, here are the top 9 DE contracts:
• DE Mario Williams (Texans) signed with Bills: six-year, $100 M ($50 M guaranteed)
• DE Red Bryant (Seahawks) signed new deal: five-year, $35 M ($14.5 M guaranteed)
• DE/DL Kendall Langford (Dolphins) signed with Rams: four-year, $24 M ($12 M guaranteed)
• DE Jeremy Mincey (Jaguars) signed new deal: four-year, $20 M ($9 M guaranteed)
• DE Frostee Rucker (Bengals) signed with Browns: five-year, $20.5 M ($8 M guaranteed)
• DE Adam Carriker (Redskins) signed new deal: four-year, $20 M ($7 M guaranteed)
• DL Jason Jones (Titans) signed with Seahawks: one-year, $4.5 M ($4.5 M guaranteed)
• DE John Abraham (Falcons) signed new deal: three-year, $16.72 M ($2.25 M guaranteed)
• DE Cory Redding (Ravens) signed with Colts: three-year, $10.5 M (??? guaranteed)

Mario was coming off an injury, and 3-straight seasons below 10 sacks, but still got a huge $ deal, highlighting the premium for edge rushers who can play 3 downs.

Bryant is more of a 3-4 guy, but had only 2 total sacks and under 100 total tackles in 4 NFL seasons before garnering a fat $7 M per season deal.

Langford is more of a Robert Geathers type, with few sacks, but decent against the run. He had a down 2011, but still got $6 M per season.

After 3 years of 7 total sacks, Mincey emerged with 8 in 2011 and was rewarded with a $5 M per season extension.

Michael Johnson is better than all these folks, probably comparable with Mario Williams in production, but at a younger age.

The top 2 DE’s in free agency are MJ & Cliff Avril, with Michael Bennett sitting in 3rd. If Mario can collect $16.7M per year, it’s not unreasonable to expect a double-digit payday for MJ93.

$52.5 / 5 years ($25 guaranteed)

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