Projected draft vs. Mock draft...what's the difference? Isn't that like calling "light blue" different from "sky blue"?
A typical MOCK draft is the draft that the individual mocker would make if he or she were the GM, or what the mocker thinks the team should select.
This PROJECTED draft is an attempt to determine who Marvin Lewis will actually select...or at least what direction he will go. Fortunately we have about a decade of Lewis drafts from which to draw upon.
What we know about Marvin's drafts:
Round 1 - he takes the player that fits the biggest need (Zeitler, Dre, Green, Gresham, Andre were all big needs)
Round 2 - he takes the BPA who he feels unexpectedly fell, often not in a position of need (Dunlap, Rey, Irons, Whitworth, Still were all BPA's non in a need)
So what is the Bengals' biggest need going into this draft?
Assuming the Bengals re-sign (or franchise) Andre Smith & Michael Johnson, they stand to potentially lose: Clements, Crocker, Geathers, Gilberry, Hawkins, T Howard, Huber, A Jones, Peerman, Newman, Rey, Leonard, Lawson, Roland, Sims, B Scott, Skuta, B Tate.
That leaves the roster with:
O-Line: Whit, Moobs, Collins, Zeitler, Boling, Wharton, Cook, Robinson - no pressing NEED here
TE: Gresham, Charles - no pressing NEED here
WR: Green, Sanu, Jones, Whalen, T Rogers, J Hilton, D Sanzenbacher - some NEED
RB: BJGE, Herron, Pressley, Connor - a NEED here for a 3-down or a 3rd down back
D-Line: Atkins, Peko, Still, Thompson, MJ, Dunlap, D Evans, J Anderson - some NEED at DE
LB: Burfict, Lamur, Moch, Maybin - big NEED for OLB help
CB:Hall, Kirkpatrick, Lewis-Harris, Ghee, Allen, Prater - potential need depending on how the unknown kids develop
S: Nelson, Mays, Sands, T DYe, G Iloka - potential need depending on how the unknown kids develop
Based on their pre-free agency roster, i think the biggest need is at LB or RB. I'm guessing they will see LB as the bigger need, bringing back either Scott or Leonard.
Round 1: Arthur Brown (or Kevin Minter) (I think Ogletree will be gone, and they'll trade down later in round 1, adding a late 3rd rounder. Brown is more of an OLB, which is a need when Vontaze moves inside)
Round 2: Jonathan Banks CB (was injured in the second half of 2012, which may affect his 40 time at the combine, which would drop him. would be a good value guy who unexpectedly drops - the type Marvin goes after)
Round 2: DJ Fluker OT (another guy who might unexpectedly fall if he comes in overweight at the combine - a possibility. a BPA pick that doesn't address an immediate need.)
Round 3: Da'Rick Rogers WR (a BPA with great athleticism but a red-flag past that attracts the Bengals)
Round 3 (from round 1 trade down): David Amerson CB (DB with good ball skills who probably falls after a down Jr year. a BPA pick that can play CB or S)
Round 4: Margus Hunt DE (raw athlete w/good size. a project with upside which fits what the Bengals do sometimes on defense)
Round 5: Kenjon Barner RB (finally, a RB. Marvin avoided RB when we had the plodding Benson, so i don't see that changing now that we have BJGE in the same role. Barner can be the 3rd down compliment to BJGE)
Round 6: Matt Scott QB (a project to develop into a backup behind Dalton. not a traditional drop-back qb, but someone who Gruden could utilize in designed roll out and running plays)