I was going to write this as a comment in Josh’s post, but it just got too big. So I made a new fanpost out of it.
Going back thru the last 5 drafts....
There are 10 RB’s (9%) who average 100+ total yards per game (great starters):
4 from the 1st round (D Martin, C Johnson, T Richardson, R Mathews)...27% of 1st round RB’s
3 from the 2nd round (R Rice, M Forte, L McCoy)...25% of 2nd round RB’s
2 from the 3rd round (J Charles, D Murray)...20% of 3rd round RB’s
1 after round 3 (A Morris Rd5)
There are 21 RB’s (19%) who average 70+ total yards per game (starters):
10 from the 1st round 67%
4 from the 2nd round 33%
5 from the 3rd round 50%
Only 2 after round 3 (Morris + V Ballard Rd6)
There are 34 RB’s (31%) who average 50+ total yards per game (solid contributors):
14 from the 1st round 93%
7 from the 2nd round 58%
6 from the 3rd round 60%
Only 7 after round 3
Of the 52 RB’s who have been total duds (less than 25 total yards per game) only 1 of them came from the first 3 rounds.
So the moral of the story seems to be...
If you want a RB who is going to be a great starter (Ray Rice
, Chris Johnson, Jamal Charles caliber) then you’re just about as likely to find one in round 1 as you are in round 2 or round 3....so taking an RB in any of the first 3 rounds will suffice.
If you want a RB who is going to be at least a decent starter (Mendenhall, Moreno, Shonn Greene
caliber), then you will have about a 50-50 chance of finding your guy in round 1, 2, or 3 but if you wait until after round 3, then your odds get really bad.
If you want a RB who is just going to be a solid contributor (Felix Jones
, Daniel Thomas
, James Starks, Roy Helu
caliber), you’re pretty much guaranteed to get one in round 1, with a 60% chance of finding one in round 2 and 3, and again your chances get bad after round 3.
The results of the last 5 drafts seem to indicate that you’re pretty much just as well off taking a RB in round 2 or 3 as you are in round 1, without much of a drop from 2 to 3 either.
So in a year without any RB’s that are really amazing talents who stand out as clear-cut round 1 guys, round 2 or 3 seems to make the most sense. And the results also seem to indicate that if we wait until after round 3, we’re not going to get much of anything
(not that Marvin would know how to draft a good RB before round 3...but that’s another story)
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.