With the draft now a few weeks ago, I decided to take a look at how Marvin has drafted vs. the rest of the NFL.
To get a measure of how "successful" he has been, i decided to look at the # of games that the draftee played in their career. It's a simple measurement, but when compiling several thousand draft picks over the last decade, it's the simplest way to go.
I broke down round-by-round, looking at:
A) The Average # of games that the draftees selected in that round, have played in their career. Obviously the higher the # the better.
B) The percentage of draftees from that round who never saw the field, and didn't even get into 1 game on special teams. In other words, complete duds. You want this # to be low.
C) The percentage of draftees who played at least 64 career games. 64 games is 4 years of 16 games, which is a decent career for a draftee - especially at the lower rounds.
|Avg # of games||% 0 games||% >= 64 games|
|Round 1||Marvin Lewis||49.3||0%||25%|
|Round 1||rest of NFL||65.8||0%||48%|
|Round 2||Marvin Lewis||56.5||8%||33%|
|Round 2||rest of NFL||55.0||1%||37%|
|Round 3||Marvin Lewis||42.6||0%||29%|
|Round 3||rest of NFL||46.5||4%||28%|
|Round 4||Marvin Lewis||49.0||0%||29%|
|Round 4||rest of NFL||41.5||6%||23%|
|Round 5||Marvin Lewis||9.2||25%||8%|
|Round 5||rest of NFL||33.3||15%||20%|
|Round 6||Marvin Lewis||26.8||8%||8%|
|Round 6||rest of NFL||27.1||22%||15%|
|Round 7||Marvin Lewis||17.1||56%||13%|
|Round 7||rest of NFL||22.7||24%||10%|
Some interesting things of note.
1) Marvin seems to struggle in the later rounds.
In rounds 5 and 6, he has been much worse than the league in finding players who have decent careers. Also, in rounds 5 and 7 he drafted about 2x as many duds as the rest of the NFL. And his kids are averaging fewer games in their careers.
2) Marvin seems to struggle in round 1.
He has a worse average # of games played by guys he drafted, and the NFL has 2x as many guys who had decent careers, vs. what Marvin's been able to draft.
3) Marvin is competative with the league in rounds 2, 3, 4, with round 4 being the round where he most often outperforms the rest of the league.
I wasn't sure what to expect to find when i started looking into this. But it seems he struggles in round 1. He struggles at the end of the draft. And he does well, but not exceptional in the middle.