There is nothing like beating a dead horse. But since this is such a hot topic this off-season. I would like to assemble a team to rate Dalton. And if this takes off, we can always rank another player and another and another....
This idea was sparked by the Top 10 Quarterbacks 25 Or Under: Andy Dalton Comes In At 9 article and I have one person that would be willing to help in gathering data. I would like to get as many volunteers as we can to break down the season as much as possible.
So the premise of the idea is to keep the data as simple as possible.
This is what I came up with:
On stride (6); on target (1), off target (-1), INT, Throw away (0)
Each pass is associated with a grade. I tried to keep it as simple as possible.
On stride simply means that you hit the WR on stride that leads to a TD, thus earning 6 points. The best you can score on a pass.
On target simply means the pass on was catchable or close enough to where the receiver can make a catch. So if the WR catches but can’t YAC or has to make spectacular catch or drops a pass, the QB is still rewarded with a point.
Off target simply means the pass is uncatchable and it wasn’t intercepted.
Interceptions are a bit different because there are several different types. If pass is intercepted on opposing teams side of the field its -1, if the pass intercepted on the our side of the field or returned to our side of the field to where the opposing team can get a field goal from where the ball is spotted the score will be -3, and of course if the pass picked 6 that is a -6.
And a throw away is 0, but this has to be an obvious throw away. QBs are taught to throw the ball away if nothing is there. So they really can’t be penalized for it.
Brennen Warner suggested to break the passes down like so:
A throw was either a good throw or bad throw. Most completions were good throws.
Of course, there were a couple drops which counted as good throws. If it was a bad throw, it was either an inaccurate throw or a bad read (the guy was covered well, and Dalton still threw it).
It’s a subjective system, but it gives a sense of how successful a QB is with more than just yardage and completion numbers. Dalton actually fared really well in that game.
PotM also suggested:
I could see doing a point scale like this:
Good accuracy on deep throw (20+ through air) and completed: (8)
Errant throw or into coverage deep: (-8) [These throws leads to interceptions]
Overthrow deep where no one could get it: (-1) [QBS are taught, if they are to miss, miss deep] [Loss of down]
Good accuracy on intermediate (9-19 through air) and completed: (4)
Errant pass or into coverage on an intermediate pass:: (-4)
Good short pass (8 and under through air): (2)
Errant throw or into coverage on short pass: (-2)
Completed pass: +1
Converted first on 3rd down through air, 5 or less yards: (4) [Expected, inaddition to]
Converted first on 3rd down through air, 6-10 yards: (4)
Converted first on 3rd down through air, 11-15 yards: (6)
Converted first on 3rd down through air, 16+ yards: (12)
Throw away: (-4) [Loss of down]
Sack: -12 to -20 depending on yardage lost
Int: -60 to -80, depending on field position
Goalline TD throw (and goal to go): (20)
Final two minutes, in game within 7 points: x2 multiplier
Overtime: x3 multiplier
The point on making TDs worth less is to not let them skew the data. Having a drive dictated entirely by the running game (80% run plays at 5 ypc, for example) then having a PA pass to a wide open TE is not as impressive as a QB that drives up the field and scores. But, throwing into a crowded endzone is tricky and is among the hardest thing for a QB to do, thus it is worth more than two good deep throws.
What ever directions we decided to go, we just need to make sure its as universal so that way our data analysis can be consistent.
And if at all possible, I would like to rate other QBs as well. So we really see how Dalton is rated against other QBs.
Let me know if your interested and once we get our team ready, we can figure out the system to use and compile the data into one article for the rest of CJ to see.
As much as I would like to take credit of "WHODEYTA", someone else came up with this name a while back when I was looking to do similar rating system for only Bengals players. I can't remember who it was exactly, but THANK YOU!