With the 2014 installment of the NFL draft almost upon us, what are some surprises that we should expect based on recent draft history?
#1 David Fales, Keith Wenning, Connor Shaw & Taj Boyd all go undrafted...
Going back over the last 6 or 7 drafts, only 11~13 QB's have been drafted in each draft.
Depending on where teams have Fales, Shaw, etc... on their boards, this crew of QB's could all end up outside of that group of 11 or so QB's who get drafted.
#2 Johnny Manziel will NOT be the top QB drafted, and likely won't go in round 1...
Going back to the turn of the millenium, no QB has been drafted in round 1 under 6' tall.
Manziel was measured at the combine at 5'11", 207 lbs.
The closest was Rex Grossman who snuck into the end of round 1 at #22 overall way back in 2003, and he was at least 6'1" tall.
#3 Even though no RB will get drafted in the first 25 or so picks, FIVE of them will be gone by the end of round 2...
But once round 1 ends, the run on RB's begins.
Over the last 4 drafts, at least 5 RB's have been selected by the end of round 2.
Going back the last 7 drafts, 5.5 RB's have gone off the boards by the end of the 2nd round.
#4 At least 3 QB's (Bridge, Bortles, Carr) will be off the boards by the mid point of round 1...
If Ponder, Gabbert, Freeman, Sanchez, Young, Leinert, Losman, Tebow, Weeden, Harrington, etc... have taught us anything.... it's that teams will reach for QB's in round 1.
If history shows us anything, expect some reaches for QB's early and often on Thursday.
#5 Sammy Watkins and another WR will both be taken in the top 13 picks...
In 11 of the last 14 drafts at least 1 WR has gone in the top 13 picks, and in 9 of those anywhere from 2~4 WR's have gone in the top13 picks.
AJ & Julio in 2011, Blackmon & Floyd in 2012, Watkins & (Evans?) in 2014.
#6 Only 2 of the elite O-Lineman will go in the top 10 picks...
With Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan, Cyrus Kouandiju, Zach Martin, etc... all being great O-Line Prospects, one might expect 4 or 5 easily in the top 10.
But outside of last year, in 11 of the last 13 drafts only 2 or less O-Linemen have gone in the top 10.
From 2000~2012, an average of 1.3 O-Linemen have been drafted in the top 10 picks.