Reason 1: Teams do not trade up to the #1 overall spot for non-QB’s.
You have to go back 19 years ago (1995 when the Bengals traded up for Ki-Jana Carter) to find a case where a team traded up to the #1 overall spot for a non-QB.
In today’s pass-happy NFL, the premium is on the QB, and it costs too much in additional & future picks to move up that high just to grab a LB or RT.
Reason 2: None of the QB’s in this year’s draft are worth the #1 overall pick.
There is no clear winner as the tall, athletic, cannon-armed, productive college QB in this year’s draft.
With no QB worthy of a #1 overall pick, no team is going to trade up into Houston’s #1 overall spot, because as I pointed out in Reason #1, team’s don’t trade up for non-QB’s.
Reason 3: Houston will draft the most popular pick, not the best pick
Rewind back to the 2006 NFL draft.
All of the hype was on this phenom from USC named Reggie Bush.
Every talking head ‘knew’ that Bush was the best thing to happen to the RB position since Jim Brown.
As the NFL season came to a close, the battle for the worst record (and #1 overall pick) was referred to as the battle for Reggie Bush.
When week 17 ended, Houston had landed that #1 overall pick.
From January until draft week, everybody assumed Houston = Bush, and the mock drafts mostly started with pick #2.
A couple days before the draft, word leaked out that the Texans might not take Bush, which, of course, was laughed at as a ridiculous smoke screen.
But when the pick was announced, it was Mario Williams, DE, NC State taken by the Texans with the #1 overall pick (and not Reggie Bush).
New Orleans (#2 overall) was caught totally by surprise with Houston’s selection, and in something of a stupefied shock, quickly grabbed Reggie Bush, even though they already had a very productive Deuce McAllister at RB.
For the next week, and next month, the talking heads bashed the Texans for screwing up such an easy pick.
It was considered as asinine as picking brick-hard sugar cookies over soft, warm choc chip cookies.
Houston was ridiculed for taking some unknown DE over the famous Reggie Bush, the RB who would transform the running game in the NFL.
Houston ultimately caved in to the pressure and axed the GM who made the decision.
Although, at the end of the day, the decision for Mario > Reggie was the right one.
Williams has averaged almost 10 sacks & 40+ tackles per season since joining the NFL, and has made 3 Pro-Bowls.
Bush, meanwhile, has never topped 6 rushing td’s or 1086 rushing yards in a season, and has never come close to a Pro-Bowl selection.
But by refusing to stand by their GM, who made the correct pick, Houston showed one important trait – they value the "popular" pick over the "best" pick.
Fast forward to 2014, and Houston again has the #1 overall pick.
Based on what we know...
Nobody will trade with Houston for a non-QB.
No QB’s in 2014 are worth the top pick.
Houston will keep the 2014 pick.
Houston will make the "popular" pick.
The most "popular" pick this year is Jadeveon Clowney.
...Therefore, the Texans WILL draft Jadeveon Clowney.