FanPost

Andy Dalton vs. Carson Palmer in big games

John Grieshop

This is a comparison of how Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer played in each of their first three years as starting quarterbacks. Note that Palmer sat out his first season while Dalton has started since his rookie year. Also note that Palmer was less durable than Dalton (Palmer missed 3 games his first playing season) and made the playoffs just once in his first three playing years and was promptly Kimo'ed, albeit he had a worse defense.

For a general comparison of their first three playing seasons, excluding the playoffs, using advanced metrics:

DYAR and DVOA:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dyar

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa

Palmer 2004: 393, 2.6% (ranked 17th and 16th among QB’s in 2004, respectively)
Dalton 2011: 575, 5.6% (ranked 12th and 13th among QB’s in 2011, respectively)

Palmer 2005: 1541, 33.4% (ranked 2nd and 3rd in 2005)
Dalton 2012: 194, -5.9% (ranked 20th and 20th in 2012)

Palmer 2006: 1187, 21.6% (ranked 3rd and 4th in 2006)
Dalton 2013: 541, 2.3% (ranked 16th and 18th in 2013)

Palmer: 12,263 "effective passing yards"
Dalton: 10,762 "effective passing yards" (Dalton's traditional passing yards, for his last two seasons but not his rookie season, are inflated due to various factors; for example, plenty of dink-and-dunks turned into long gains by his receivers)

And traditional metrics, excluding the playoffs:

Passing

Comp%

Yards

YPA

Passing TD

INT

Passer rating

Palmer

932/1461

63.8

10,768

7.37

78

43

91.5

Dalton

992/1630

60.9

11,360

6.97

80

49

85.7

Someone in another thread asked for a comparison of Dalton vs. Palmer in big games- here you go, I calculated these myself. My definition of "big game" is any game that is not a Sunday afternoon non-divisional game. AFC North (Browns, Ravens, Steelers), SNF, MNF, TNF, and the Playoffs would all fall under the realm of "big game." Palmer barely played in the playoffs, but did reasonably well in the big regular season games. Dalton did not do well in his three playoff appearances, but he did not do well in the big regular season games anyway. For example, Dalton's most recent playoff appearance actually slightly improved his big-game numbers for last season. In contrast, Dalton had a very high level of performance last season in non-big games.

Dalton

Passing

Comp%

Yards

YPA

Passing TD

INT

Passer rating

First three playing years in big games (23)

474/835

56.8

5189

6.21

26

33

69.2

First three playing years in other games (28)

558/918

64.1

6892

7.51

55

23

96.3

Third playing year in big games (8)

192/349

55.0

2036

5.83

11

16

63.6

Third playing year in other games (9)

200/288

69.4

2594

9.01

23

7

114

Palmer

Passing

Comp%

Yards

YPA

Passing TD

INT

Passer rating

First three playing years in big games (23)

442/721

61.3

5128

7.11

38

25

85.9

First three playing years in other games (23)

490/740

66.2

5640

7.62

40

18

96.9

Third playing year in big games (7)

134/222

60.4

1675

7.55

13

7

90.2

Third playing year in other games (9)

190/298

63.8

2360

7.92

15

6

96.6

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.

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