Fresh off a Super Bowl victory and a playoff run that saw him churn out 288 rushing yards and 4 TD’s over 3 games, not to mention a third straight season rushing for over 1,200 yards and double digit TD’s, Marshawn Lynch has decided that his current contract is insufficient.
Lynch skipped his team’s OTA’s, but appeared for Minicamp. Recently, he has made his intentions known that he is going to hold-out from Training Camp.
Why bring this up? Meh, it’s football related, and sometimes players make decisions that just seem so bizarre that they deserve to be discussed. For example, Maurice Clarett eschewing the Broncos signing bonus offer, Billy Turner (a third-round pick) holding out instead of signing with the Dolphins this year, Chad Johnson legally changing his last name to the Spanish form of Eight Fifths, Adam Muema going AWOL from the combine this year because ‘God told him to’, etc...
So why is this such a bizarre move for Lynch, given his present situation?
1: Current Contract
Marshawn Lynch currently has 2 years remaining on his contract.
$5M in 2014, and $5.5M in 2014
$5M in 2014 makes him the 6th highest paid RB in the NFL (behind only AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, Foster)
So it’s not like he’s a woefully underpaid UDFA coming off of back-to-back 1,800 yard rushing campaigns. He’s paid pretty well at 6th overall. And the guys above him are younger and can do more on offense. His salary does not seem to be unfair. And at 28 years old, he can’t expect to get extended past age 30 at such a high salary, can he?
2: Seattle’s team
If Seattle had no QB, no other offensive weapons, a terrible defense, etc... and relied solely on Lynch to do anything on the field, Lynch would have some leverage. This was the case when CJ2K held out on the Titans a few years ago. But the Seahawks have a good, young QB that just won a Super Bowl. They have an elite defense. They have young, capable backups behind Lynch.
They are a team who can attempt move on without Lynch, and not worry that they will go 0-16 as a result.
3: Seattle’s Offense
Seattle just drafted a RB in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft (Christine Michael), and a 4th round RB the year before (Robert Turbin). They have been impressed with the 2nd round RB from last year and have said they are going to pursue more of a RBBC approach this year.
This diminishes Lynch’s value on offense somewhat, as his projected workload could be cut by about 1/3 or even 1/2 for the upcoming season, depending on how much of a committee they use.
4: Lynch’s Position. RB
In today’s pass-happy, QB-friendly NFL, the 300+ carry RB just isn’t as valuable as years ago when teams would heavily focus on the running game. Today you can win without a good RB. But it’s hard to win without a QB. Lynch’s position of RB doesn’t carry any leverage that a position like QB, or even CB would hold.
5: Age. Workload.
It’s not like Lynch is a spring chicken. He’s 28 years old, and will be 30 when his currently contract expires. Seattle’s backups are 5 years, and 4 years younger than him.
The general rule of thumb is:
When a RB approaches the age of 30, they tend to decline (rapidly).
When a RB has multiple seasons of 300+ carries, they tend to decline (rapidly).
Marshawn Lynch has both of these factors working against him.
He is approaching 30, and has back-to-back 300+ carry seasons.
How this affects the Bengals:
This year there are no Bengals holding out (thankfully). But every holdout sets a precedent. It allows players to gauge how likely teams are to cave in, or stand firm. Like WWI, it’s a battle of attrition with both sides standing firm until one gives in.
If Seattle stands firm, forcing Lynch to ultimately relent, or sit all season, then it’s a victory for the teams over players on the ‘holdout’ battlefield.
Because holdouts can extract a huge financial penalty on a player (if they are not successful), most players will look at past histories of holdouts before determining if they will pursue one for themselves.
So, while this holdout does not have any immediate impact on the 2014 Bengals, it is a piece of the puzzle that will go into consideration for any Bengal next year or the following, who may consider a holdout.