FanPost

The death of the bellcow: When did the bellcow running back disappear?

Of late, NFL teams seem to be throwing more frequently, and are more frequently utilizing a RBBC approach with their RB’s. And teams aren’t drafting RB’s in round 1 with the same consistency as they used to. In essence, the heavy-workload, bellcow RB seems to be a thing of the past.

At least that’s the impression we seem to have.

1 – Is that impression grounded in reality?

2 – And if so, when did it occur?

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The data: PASSING YARDS

Yd

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

5000+

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

3

1

2

4500+

0

1

1

0

2

0

0

1

3

2

3

6

6

4

4000+

3

1

4

2

5

2

5

7

6

10

5

10

11

9

3500+

9

9

9

8

12

9

8

9

10

17

12

14

17

14

For the 7 years from 2000 thru 2006:

Only 4 times did a QB top 4,500 passing yards

A QB never topped 5,000 passing yards

An average of 3.1 QB’s topped the 4,000 yard mark per season

For the 7 years from 2007 thru 2013:

A QB topped 4,500 yards 25 times (vs 4 in the previous 7 years)

A QB has topped 5,000 yards 7 times, and 6 in the last 3 years

An average of 8.3 topped the 4,000 yardage mark (vs 3.1)

The number of QB’s throwing for big yards has significantly increased over the last 7 years vs the previous 7, and even over the last 3 years it’s jumped up even more radically.

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The data: RUSHING ATTEMPTS

Att

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

350+

3

1

2

4

3

4

1

0

2

1

0

0

1

0

300+

9

10

9

13

9

10

10

6

5

6

7

2

5

2

250+

19

15

19

16

17

17

17

12

13

9

11

12

14

11

For the 7 years from 2000 thru 2006:

There was always a RB who ran for 350 or more carries.

On average, there were 2.6 RB’s each year rushing for 350 or more carries.

On average, there were 10 RB’s who rushed at least 300 times, and never less than 9 of them.

On average, 17.1 RB’s rushed at least 250 times, and never less than 15 of them.

For the 7 years from 2007 thru 2013:

Only 4 times in 7 years has an RB topped 350 carries (an average of 0.6)

On average, only 4.7 RB’s reached 300 rushes, and never more than 7 in any given season.

On average, 11.7 RB’s rushed at least 200 times, and never more than 14 of them.

There is a significant drop in the # of RB’s topping the 350 attempt workload

There is a significant drop in the # of RB’s topping the 300 attempt workload

There is a significant drop in the # of RB’s topping the 250 attempt workload

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The data: RUSHING YARDS

Ru Yd

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1500+

3

2

4

6

5

5

5

0

3

1

1

1

4

1

1000+

23

15

17

18

18

16

23

17

16

15

17

15

16

13

For the 7 years from 2000 thru 2006:

There were always multiple RB’s running for at least 1,500 yards, and an average of 4.3 per season.

On average, 18.6 RB’s topped the 1,000 mark, with no less than 15 any given year.

For the 7 years from 2007 thru 2013:

There were only twice in 7 years that multiple RB’s topped 1,500 yards, and an average of only 1.6

On average, 15.6 RB’s topped the 1,000 mark, and never more than 17.

There is a significant drop in the # of 1,500 RB’s

There is a small drop in the # of 1,000 RB’s

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The data: FANTASY FOOTBALL POINTS (RB’s)

FFL

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

350+

1

0

1

1

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

300+

1

1

3

4

1

4

3

1

0

1

1

0

1

1

250+

5

4

9

7

7

5

6

2

2

4

1

4

4

3

200+

17

9

17

12

10

10

9

6

14

12

13

6

10

9

150+

25

19

24

21

26

22

26

21

23

24

21

24

21

19

100+

29

32

39

37

37

34

40

38

42

38

38

38

28

36

Fantasy Football points? Yes. Because it factors in receiving yards & TD’s to give a good picture of the RB’s usage beyond just rushing.

For the 7 years from 2000 thru 2006:

There was an average of 0.7 RB’s per season who topped 350 fantasy football points

There was an average of 2.4 RB’s who topped 300, with at least 1 every year

An average of 6.1 RB’s topped 250 points, never less than 4 of them

For the 7 years from 2007 thru 2013:

There have been ZERO RB’s who topped 350 fantasy football points

Only 5 RB’s in 7 years have topped 300 points, with an average of 0.7

An average of 2.9 RB’s topped 250 points, never more than 4 of them

There is a siginifcant drop in RB’s being used enough to produce 350 fantasy points

There is a siginifcant drop in RB’s being used enough to produce 300 fantasy points

There is a siginifcant drop in RB’s being used enough to produce 250 fantasy points

The # of RB’s who reach the 200, 150, and 100 point levels are essentially unchanged

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So YES, the bellcow, heavy workload RB has disappeared in today’s NFL.

And more QB’s are passing for bigger #’s than before.

And that transition seems to have occurred between the 2006 and 2007 NFL seasons.

There is a pretty drastic drop in RB workloads starting in 2007.

So what happened between in the mid 2000’s, especially between 2006 and 2007, to cause this dramatic change in RB workloads?

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#1 RULE CHANGES

While no specific rule changes took place between 2006 and 2007, a number of rule changes have occurred over the last decade which benefit the passing game. And teams have been slowly adapting their offenses accordingly.

2006 – Hits on QB’s below the knees banned

2009 – Contact to the head of ‘defenseless receivers’ was prohibited

2010 – ‘Defenseless Receiver’ expanded from WR’s to all players, game suspension added as a penalty

2000’s – No-Contact rule on receivers beyond 5 yards now enforced in the middle of the field. This rule has been around, but not regularly enforced. It opened the middle of the field to the passing game.

#2 INJURIES

+ Larry Johnson racked up 416 carries and 17 TD’s in 2006. He got injured in 2007 and missed 1/2 of the season.

+ Steve Jackson topped 2,300 total yards and 346 rushes in 2006. He got injured in 2007, compiling about 1/2 of the total yards, and missing 1/4 of the season.

+ Rudi Johnson cranked out 341 rushes and over 1,300 yards in 2006. He got injured in 2007, missing 1/3 of the season and failing to reach 500 rushing yards.

+ Ahman Green had been a reliable 1,000 yard rusher for Green Bay, regularly reaching 250~350 rushes. He too got hurt in 2007 and saw his yardage cut by 75%.

A slew of injuries to heavy-workload bellcow RB’s took place in the 2007 season. This, coupled with an era that was increasingly friendly to QB’s and receivers, seems to have brought an end to the long string of years with bellcow RB’s. Following the 2006 season, the presence of bellcow RB’s was reduced almost overnight, and the advent of heavy passing was upon us.

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This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.